One way to describe the moment facing the Kenya Kwanza administration today is that of a student experiencing the first days of school; but already confronted by marks awarded for a future exam. Or, in easier African language, we think we know how the day will turn out early in the morning.

Not being a fan of the "first 100 days" bandwagon, I retain the unpopular stance that the work really begins in 2023. Of course, there will be much activity between now and Christmas. On the economy - which was Kenya Kwanza's campaign lynchpin - watch out for three telling signals.

First, the 2022/23 supplementary budget estimates. Has that Sh300 billion in cost savings been found, or has reality prevailed around a decision to focus on "good, not less" spending? After all, how much austerity can we afford during these increasingly recessionary economic times? We should not forget that the public spending shilling is still a key driver of economic activity.