Ugandan, Tanzanian currencies seen falling

The currencies of Uganda and Tanzania are likely to depreciate next week as Zambia’s appreciates and those of Nigeria and Kenya hold steady.

UGANDA

The Ugandan shilling is seen weakening versus the U.S. dollar in the coming days on a likely decline in inflows of hard currency from the tourism sector after an American tourist was kidnapped in one of the country’s most visited game parks.

Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,725/3,735, compared to last Thursday close of 3,710/3,720.

“Tourism being a key source of foreign exchange for the country, we expect that there will be some impact on (forex) inflows,” said a trader at a leading commercial bank, referring to the kidnap incident.

The shilling would likely trade in the 3,730-3,750 range in the coming days, the trader said.

TANZANIA

Tanzanian shilling is expected to depreciate slightly against the U.S. dollar next week due to rising demand for hard currency as traders prepare for Easter festival.

On Thursday, commercial banks quoted the shilling at 2,310 per U.S. dollar from a close of 2,320 a week ago.

“Next week we expect the dollar to gain strength slightly because of demand from the trading sector,” a currency trader at one commercial bank said.

ZAMBIA

The kwacha is likely to make some marginal gains against the U.S. dollar in the coming week supported by hard currency sales by companies preparing to pay taxes.

On Thursday, commercial banks quoted the currency of Africa’s second-largest copper producer at 12.0780 per U.S. dollar from a close of 12.1500 a week ago.

“It should slightly appreciate because of next week’s tax payments,” independent financial analyst Maambo Hamaundu said, referring to the Zambian currency.

NIGERIA

Nigerian naira is seen stable next week after it firmed against the U.S. currency this week on improved dollar liquidity from foreign investors and exporters, traders said.

The naira firmed to a high of 360.25 per dollar on the over-the-counter market this week, strengthening from 361 last week.

At currency bureaus it was quoted at 360 and 307 on the official market, supported by the central bank.

Traders say Nigerian treasury yields are attracting foreign investors, which they hope could boost liquidity and keep the currency stable in the coming week.

KENYA

The Kenyan shilling is seen steady against the U.S. dollar in the coming week due to inflows from offshore investors buying government debt offsetting pressure from excess liquidity in the local money market, traders said.

Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 100.65/85 per dollar, compared with 100.80/101.00 at last Thursday’s close.

“The auction will inform the level of foreign interest and confirm level of liquidity on the local money market side,” said a senior trader from one commercial bank, referring to new ten year and twenty year bonds being auctioned next week.