Slippery blocs: Ruto's re-election bid faces tests across key regions

President William Ruto alongside Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, ODM Leader Oburu Oginga, Prime CS Musalia Mudavadi, and Governors Susan Kihika, Gladys Wanga, and Cecily Mbarire arrive at the Lake Naivasha Resort in Nakuru County for the broad-based government retreat on August 10, 2026. [Kipsang Joseph, Standard]

President William Ruto's re-election bid is entering a critical phase as shifting political alliances and growing competition in some of the country's key voting blocs raise questions over whether he can rebuild the broad coalition that secured his victory in 2022.

The President, together with his United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party lieutenants, has spent much of his first term trying to secure new political bases while losing some of his older ones at almost the same rate.

As this happens, former allies are shifting camps as realignments gain momentum and a litany of opponents push for the formation of a major coalition to end his stint in political paradise.

From Coast, to Western, to parts of Rift Valley, to Eastern and to the Mount Kenya region, the president’s support is facing an uncertain future with barely a year to the next General Elections.

Nyanza, too, another support base he is banking on to increase his chances of bagging the prize for a second term, is also facing uncertain times following the widespread backlash against his allies in ODM who meted violence on his critics.But that is just one chapter of the script, observers believe that the entry of Linda Mwanainchi brigade and its intense mobilisation efforts against Ruto coupled up with the parallel efforts driven by members of the United Opposition led by his former deputy Rigathi Gachagua, have further added complexities to the president’s reelection campaign.

"What we are seeing is a fragmentation of the old political blocs. Mount Kenya has Gachagua, Western has Sifuna, Nyanza has the ODM-government faction and Linda Mwananchi, Matiang'i, while the Coast is also developing competing centres. That makes the 2027 election much less predictable," argues political pundit Moses Ombwayo

Yesterday, political tensions in Western, a key voting bloc, intensified as leaders and residents swaying to the Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna’s wave heckled Ruto’s allies and forced them to talk only after acknowledging Sifuna as their next leader. They were speaking during the burial of Senator Bonny Khalwale’s wife.

Tensions are also high in Nyanza where Linda Mwanainchi appears to be gaining momentum in its push to edge out ODM leaders and Ruto, and inherit the late Raila Odinga’s political base.

According to political observers, the developments have created a difficult electoral equation for the President, who must retain his traditional support while making gains in areas where the opposition has historically been strong.

This was evident at the August 10 government retreat, where Ruto told his Kenya Kwanza coalition and ODM allies that they needed to be proactive ahead of the 2027 election.

"We must win 2027 general elections not for your sake but because the alternative is difficult to fathom," he said.

The most significant challenge is Mount Kenya, where the 2022 political alliance between Ruto and Gachagua has collapsed.

Gachagua was instrumental in mobilising the region behind Ruto in 2022, but his impeachment in October 2024 and subsequent break with the President transformed the political relationship.

The former deputy president has since established the Democratic Citizens Party (DCP) as a vehicle for his political ambitions and intensified efforts to consolidate support across the mountain.

The July 16 Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election provided the first major electoral test of the rivalry.

DCP candidate Samuel Waweru defeated UDA's Samuel Muchina Nyaga with 35,440 votes against 5,450.

Although turnout in the by-election was significantly lower than that of a presidential election, the result gave Gachagua an important political victory in an area where the ruling party had expected to be competitive.

Just recently, Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro, once one of the President's most prominent allies in Mount Kenya, formally joined the People's Party of Kenya after distancing himself from UDA.

Nyoro has attributed his differences with the administration to policy issues, particularly what he describes as a departure from the economic agenda presented to voters in 2022.

"We told Kenyans that we would not continue with excessive borrowing, and yet today we are borrowing even more than before," Nyoro said while explaining his disagreement with the administration.

His departure is politically significant because Nyoro was among the younger leaders who helped mobilise support for Ruto in the mountain during the 2022 campaign.

The President has sought to counter Gachagua's influence through Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and other regional leaders.

According to political analyst David Owino, the emerging competition means the mountain can no longer be treated as a single political constituency that Ruto can rely on.

"For Ruto, retaining a substantial share of Mount Kenya's vote is important because any significant reduction in his previous advantage would have to be compensated for elsewhere," Owino explains.

The more than 2.6 million voters in Western Kenya present a different challenge for the incumbent.

Ruto entered the region with a political foothold after securing sizeable numbers in 2022.

His subsequent decision to work with ODM leaders, including former Kakamega governor Wycliffe Oparanya, was intended to strengthen his position in a region where Raila Odinga had maintained a strong political base.

The strategy has produced influential allies, but it has also coincided with the emergence of Sifuna's Linda Mwananchi movement.

Sifuna has toured parts of Western Kenya in recent weeks, attracting support from leaders including Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya and Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi.

"The movement has presented itself as a vehicle for opposition to President Ruto and a platform for a new generation of political leadership," Owino notes.

The emergence of Sifuna has also forced established Kenya Kwanza leaders in the region to increase their political activity in a bid to secure a share of the vote.

Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang'ula remain central to Ruto's strategy in Western Kenya, but their influence is now being tested by competing political centres.

Mudavadi recently stepped up his mobilisation in the region following Sifuna's rise, warning voters that Western Kenya cannot secure the presidency on its own.

"People are busy dancing on top of podiums and engaging in sloganeering, thinking that reflects winning the presidency. It takes more; it calls for well-crafted policies, an agenda and benchmarking on one's track record to convince the voters to elect you," Mudavadi said.

His remarks underscored the challenge facing pro-government regional leaders who have struggled to translate political mobilisation into a coherent Ruto re-election strategy ahead of 2027.

According to analysts, Ruto's concern is not necessarily that Sifuna might sweep Western Kenya, but that the emergence of another strong political centre could prevent the President from converting the region's large electorate into the substantial gains his campaign requires.

Nyanza has also begun to test the limits of the broad-based government.

The President's relationship with ODM has opened a new political front in the region.

Following Raila Odinga's death, Ruto's administration moved to strengthen ties with the party's leadership, with ODM figures including current leader Oburu Oginga and chairperson Gladys Wanga supporting continued cooperation with the government.

The arrangement has given Ruto access to political leaders who previously operated from the opposition under the tutelage of the late Raila.

However, the region has not moved uniformly behind the government as expected.

Siaya Governor James Orengo has remained critical of the direction taken by ODM, while other leaders, including Suba South MP Caroli Omondi, have joined the Linda Mwananchi campaign.

The chaotic recent rally in Homa Bay provided a visible demonstration of the competing political positions.

Despite assurances from local leaders that the government enjoys support in the county, sections of residents turned out for the opposition movement and openly embraced its "Wantam" message.

"This is where the spirit of Raila is; it did not die with him. Leadership is taken, not given, and that is why I am the remaining Raila," Orengo said.

Analysts argue that Nyanza should be one of Ruto's immediate electoral objectives if he is to consolidate his national support base and improve his prospects in 2027.

But that becomes difficult if opposition forces consolidate around one political movement in the region.

Kisii, which forms part of the wider Nyanza voting bloc and has more than three million voters across the region, presents another uncertainty.

The Gusii region has also become increasingly competitive.

Ruto has cultivated strong relationships with local leaders, including South Mugirango MP Sylvanus Osoro, who has publicly campaigned for the President's re-election.

Osoro has argued that the region should move away from its traditional opposition politics and support the government.

But the emergence of Matiang'i has introduced a new variable.

The former Interior Cabinet Secretary was endorsed by Jubilee Party as its presidential candidate and has received support from sections of the Gusii political establishment.

His entry provides voters with a national political alternative rooted in the region itself, away from the political influence of the late Raila Odinga.

For Ruto's allies, the challenge is to retain the support they built during the early years of his administration while responding to Matiang'i's growing political profile.

The Coast is also witnessing political realignment.

Former Cabinet Secretary Aisha Jumwa, once one of Ruto's most vocal allies, has left UDA and joined the Wiper Patriotic Movement.

Jumwa has announced plans to contest the Kilifi governorship and declared support for the "one-term" campaign against Ruto.

"We are the ones who registered UDA members in Kilifi, and we are embarking on a grassroots campaign to deregister them from UDA and join Wiper," she said.

Her departure could have consequences beyond the governorship race if she succeeds in transferring her political networks from UDA to Wiper.

Nyali MP Mohamed Ali has also moved into Wiper's political structure, further strengthening the party's presence in Mombasa.

The developments come as Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka expands his political activities at the Coast ahead of 2027.

Lamu Woman Representative Monicah Muthoni, a potential ally of Ruto, withdrew her plans to join UDA, accusing Lamu Governor Issa Timamy of political sabotage and ethnic exclusion.

Ruto still retains support from Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho, Senate Speaker Amason Kingi and other regional leaders.

The developments across these regions have raised a central question for the President's campaign: whether political agreements reached with senior leaders will translate into votes.

Political analyst Moses Ombayo says the distinction between political alliances and voter support will be critical as the election approaches.

"Political leaders can move from one coalition to another, but their voters do not necessarily move with them," Ombayo says.

He argues that Ruto's political challenge is now more complicated because several regions have multiple competing centres of influence.

Analysts argue that the choice of running mate could become particularly consequential for the support the head of State intends to command in each of the voting blocs.

They argue that retaining Kindiki would signal continuity with Mount Kenya at a time when Gachagua is attempting to pull the region away from State House.

A shift towards another region could strengthen Ruto's position in a new electoral bloc but create fresh discontent among his existing supporters.