Will Gachagua's misfortune turn into a blessing?

Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua acknowledges greetings from Homabay Residents during the commissioning of the Rusinga Ring Road, Homa Bay County. [DPCS]

Did Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua talk himself into trouble that will sink him into political oblivion, or will he seize what also appears to be a lifetime opportunity to cement his place as a Mt Kenya kingpin and the region's kingmaker?

While prosecuting the impeachment motion in parliament on Tuesday morning, Minority Whip Millie Odhiambo Mabona echoed sentiments expressed by a majority of MPs that Gachagua’s loose tongue could have dug his grave and he should therefore have tamed it.

Political pundits however argue that the dividends gained from his fallout with President William Ruto may turn out to be a political treasure that he could never have found had he remained meek and subservient in his position of deputy president.

He was also accused of acquiring land using dubious means but it is also argued that acquiring property across the Mt Kenya region in places like Meru where his mother comes from, Laikipia, Nyandarua, Ngong, Nairobi and other places in the region endears him to people in those localities.

Contributing to the impeachment motion, the MPs appeared incensed by the two-hour prime time interview the deputy president did on Monday, where he addressed and spiritedly acquitted himself of all the 11 charges levelled against by Kibwezi West MP Mwengi Mutuse in his impeachment motion.

“Whoever advised the DP to give that interview did not have his interest at heart. Instead, he made our work easier because of the self-incriminating confessions, plus his blatant disdain towards parliament and the courts,” said Rarieda MP Amolo Otiende.

The DP has also been accused of contradicting his boss President Ruto and allegedly showing against him contempt by addressing the media in Mombasa recently after his boss had addressed the country at State House Nairobi during the countrywide Gen Z protests.

In that address, Gachagua blamed the National Intelligence Service Director General Noordin Haji and his team for allegedly failing to advise the president properly on the mass discontent against the Finance Bill 2014 before MPs voted for it.

When Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua said a prayer inside the Mt.Kenya forest. [DPCS]

That accusation and his attack against a high court judge were among the 11 charges that Gachagua is expected to stand trial for in the Senate this week.

If his detractors thought, he was going to be tamed through the introduction of the motion, it appears to have only emboldened Gachagua and made him more ballistic, as he further endears himself to his supporters in the Mt Kenya region.

Kisia is among political observers who were impressed with how Gachagua prosecuted the motion against him in parliament and in the media.

“He made it appear as if his crime is making wealth, yet other people have done the same. It is a moral question he is raising about the kind of leaders we have.

“He was saying if the president criticized police officers when he was deputy president and nothing happened, why is it that I talking about the NIS boss is such a big offence that is impeachable,” says Kisia

This week, he will also defend himself against accusations of promoting division through demands that senior positions in government and resources be allocated on the basis of how every region voted for President William Ruto and Kenya Kwanza.

Other claims include the promotion of tribalism and ethnic politics that can allegedly create division among communities, which he denies and more allegations that he is only crusading and promoting the interests of the Mt Kenya region.

Before falling out with Ruto, Gachagua appeared to have been relishing his job, happily playing the role of the president’s attack dog, while taking on the opposition and other perceived opponents with full force.

He in the process created many enemies both in in opposition ranks and among neutrals and that has largely contributed to the hate that he is currently experiencing.

Kisia agrees that Gachagua made some mistakes first by insisting that the government belongs to shareholders, instead of leaving President Ruto to carry the burden because he is the one who signed share agreements with other parties in the Kenya Kwanza coalition.

It was therefore naive for him to have not only aggressively sold the shareholding agenda, but also agreed to play the attack dog role against Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila Odinga, the opposition and other perceived enemies.

“Why do you agree to take charge of a fight that is not yours, yet you are a seasoned politician who went through President Moi’s training and should therefore know your limits,” says Kisia.

The political analyst also thinks it was poor judgment for Gachagua to have put a lot of trust in President Ruto’s support when it is common knowledge that the president had fallen out with Uhuru and many other politicians he worked with in his political career.

Indeed, Gachagua himself recently profusely apologized to President Kenyatta and his family, pleading for forgiveness for allegedly being misled into vilifying the Mt Kenya region “king”, and that the mistake should never happen again.

In June, when Gachagua appeared to have decided to go full throttle against his boss, he was reported to have said in Kimende, Kiambu county: “Come rain, come sunshine, we will never vilify our king again. Let us teach ourselves never again to vilify our king.”

Prof Peter Kagwanja, the Director Africa Policy Institute also argues that a serious fallout between Ruto and Gachagua emerged a long time ago but it all boils down towards failure to understand the dynamics of how power plays out.

From his understanding of the current situation, the problem is that the president expected total allegiance from his deputy, because of the assumption that he conquered the Kikuyu before 2022, got their votes and was therefore became their undisputed king.

So on one level, it is a supremacy battle over the Mt Kenya allegiance which, he thinks Ruto lost and was not expected to win anyway, because he only won the fight against Uhuru to beat his Azimio candidate Raila Odinga in 2022 but not of other emerging leaders in the region.

“Gachagua is guilty of asserting himself as leader of Mt Kenya, secondly for denying Ruto the opportunity to boast on the glory of emerging as the overall king in the region, and also for consciously accumulating wealth and appearing to be a serious political force,” says Kagwanja.

It is therefore not surprising that the impeachment motion has taken a political trajectory as was seen in parliament where Gachagua was accused of all manner of things, ranging from allegedly grabbing his brother’s property, sponsoring the Gen Z protests and abusing women among other claims.

Political analyst and ODM party founder member Ahmed Hashi wonders why President Ruto wants Gachagua out of office now, yet he allowed him to run rogue for almost two years untamed when he unleashed the Kenya Kwanza vomit with little caution on all foes.

“He has been there for two years behaving as a tribal nationalist and doing everything wrong which Ruto did nothing about but when Raila joined government recently in a “come we stay” arrangement, the president began seeing Gachagua’s wrongs,” says Hashi.

Prof Kagwanja says the impeachment process has turned out to be an impeachment against Ruto himself and his government who in public perception, should not be in office because of bad governance and human rights violations.

From his assessment, it means that even if he succeeds in impeaching Gachagua, the battle will be far from overmanly because the DP is now a force that he never imagined he could be.

Deputy President shared a moment with a small-scale trader alongMama Ngina Waterfront in Mombasa. [DPCS]

He has also appealed to other groups including a section of the opposition the other battlefront called the Gen Z which is still simmering like an active volcano.

Political pundits also think that Gachagua’s exit will not necessarily create harmony for President Ruto and his government, first because he will pick either a loyalist or a friend to be the deputy president.

“I’m sure the intelligence agencies have told him that he is facing a big backlash in the Mt Kenya region and other areas where people think there are more pressing issues that need to be resolved than the impeachment motion,” says Kisia.

Speaking about the anger he saw in Limuru where he visited on Thursday, Kisia says people are saying they don’t want a person from the region to be given the DP job again or to succeed Gachagua because they don’t want to be part of his government.

They are saying: “It does not matter what he does to appease the people there, because they have made a decision. They are saying this is not the Ruto we voted for in 2022. We apologise to Uhuru because he warned us but we did not listen.”

And so die is cast because the rising anger is not just over Gachagua losing his job but also because many businesses have been destroyed from 2022 as poverty levels get worse and their leaders in the region also get destroyed.

It is further argued that Gachagua created many enemies, including what amounted to inciting people against some leaders like Kimani Ichung’wah in the region, while others counter that very few of those opposing the embattled leader will survive the 2027 political hurricane.

“It has nothing to do with the Ichung’wa’s or others who are being seen as traitors of Mt Kenya region. Those are hired mouths because the real owner of the fight is Ruto who has a grudge against Gachagua,” says Kagwanja.

 Hashi also sees very complicated political challenges ahead, including a futile attempt to use other platforms like county assemblies in forming constituent forums to change the constitution and create more leadership positions.

The attempt to use an extra-constitutional approach could be attractive to the current administration because the recent public participation done by parliament proved that an attempt to carry out a referendum through a popular vote will be a disaster for the government.

Coupled with the Gen Z revolution that President Ruto will have to deal with in future, Gachagua may have the last laugh, even if it means playing the role of a kingmaker should be impeached by the Senate and the decision validated by the courts of law.

Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka also thinks Gachagua did well talking about abductions and forced disappearances and killings of people especially the Gen Z protestors during the impeachment motion.

“Gachagua is talking about abductions and the president appears not to be listening to him. He is talking about shares in government and percentages in job allocation, which has been perfected by the current government,” says Onyonka.