No walk in park as Ruto attempts to takeover Raila bases

President William Ruto with his Deputy Rigathi Gachagua and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga when they arrived at Magunga grounds for home coming ceremony of CS Treasury John Mbadi in Suba South constituency on Aug 29, 2024. [James Omoro, Standard]

Giving Cabinet slots to the opposition was a gamble and President William Ruto knew as much when he took it. But under immense pressure from unrelenting youthful protesters, the President’s options were few.

Doubtless, Dr Ruto’s high-risk move promises high returns. Having former Prime Minister Raila Odinga comes with the promise of securing the opposition veteran’s vote-rich political bases of the former Nyanza, Western and Coast provinces.

The theory has been proven countless times before and it helped deliver victory to the late former President Mwai Kibaki in 2002.

The chances that the gamble could be futile are also real. The broad-based deal with the former premier could well cost the Head of State Mt Kenya, which at more than 3.5 million votes, delivered the most votes to Ruto’s basket in the 2022 polls.

And so the President finds himself in an unenviable position. He is on the horns of a dilemma. Does he go all in with Raila or does he fight to keep the Mount Kenya bloc?

He seems invested in pursuing both goals. He does not seem ready to lose Mt Kenya, where Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s popularity is growing by the day. On Thursday, a section of lawmakers from the region endorsed Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki as their leader, a move likely sanctioned from above.

Buoyed by the warm reception he got during his recent tours of Nyanza, Western and Coast regions, the President is also looking to invest in warming into the hearts of the traditional Raila supporters.

Ruto supports the opposition veteran’s bid to chair the African Union Commission (AUC) and has placed the relevant State machinery at Raila’s disposal.

There is talk that Ruto could pick a running mate from Western or Nyanza if he were to drop Gachagua and if he completely loses Mt Kenya by 2027. Among the names fronted as potential deputies are Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga.

He is pursuing partnerships with Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) lawmakers and plans to meet those from Nairobi at the State House next week. He met four last Monday, in an informal meeting convened by Makadara MP George Aladwa.

The President seems to enjoy some silent blessing from Raila, given the fact that those closest to the former premier have embraced him. In Nyanza, all governors accompanied him in all his stops, with Raila’s blue-eyed boy Junet Mohamed present as well.

Aladwa, Raila’s and Ida Odinga’s trusted hand in Nairobi, told The Sunday Standard that the anticipation is equally immense in Nairobi, pointing out that Raila has already led the way by working with Ruto.

“The President was recently in Nyanza and Western and our leaders accompanied him when he inspected tours. There is nothing wrong with us accompanying him to projects within our county. We also have our wish lists that we want to present to him like other areas of the country,” said Aladwa, one of the lawmakers keen to walk the journey with the Head of State.

But Ruto knows that he cannot sit pretty as his dalliance with Raila is already facing resistance. The former prime minister insists that there exists no deal between him and Ruto, a declaration that has served as a go-ahead for some opposition lawmakers to dig at the president.

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has maintained that ODM would continue to keep the Executive in check. He was among the city lawmakers who skipped Ruto’s engagement in Nairobi and is unlikely to attend a planned formal meeting.

“As a legislator, I find it repugnant to the doctrine of separation of powers for a president to summon us to State House. I found the invitation extremely disrespectful and ill-motivated to perpetuate nefarious political ends,” the ODM secretary-general said in the wake of the meeting.

The senator has recently warned that Ruto would struggle to make inroads in Raila’s traditional bases, dismissing assertions that the friendly welcome the Head of State got in Nyanza was an endorsement of his presidency and policies.

“I don’t remember any time a political leader was chased away from anywhere... Politics is a game of deception and those in Kenya Kwanza are not the only ones to play these games. Everybody in Kenya can do these things,” Sifuna said during a recent interview on Citizen TV.

“I remember when we were campaigning in the last elections, we were able to bring the largest coalition this country has ever seen - 26 parties. It doesn’t matter how many political persons or politicians you bring into your government. If you are not addressing the issues of the people, you will still come up short,” he added.

Embakasi East MP Babu Owino has also been vocal against the President. Babu, an ambitious young politician, is seen as a potential successor to Raila in the opposition’s politics.

Historian Timothy Onduru described the resistance as a “storm in the tea cup”, highlighting Raila’s influence on his strongholds.

“Although it is still too early to say, I don’t see the President having any problem in accessing Raila’s bases. But it will depend on whether Raila secures the AUC seat. If Raila doesn’t win it then he could fall back to his party,” said Dr Onduru, who teaches history at Moi University. 

Indeed, the Head of State will be looking over his shoulder for Raila’s return if he fails in his AUC bid. Other dynamics, such as Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka’s loyalty to Raila over the last three elections.

Dr Onduru said that Ruto had higher chances of succeeding in Nyanza than Kalonzo if the former stuck with Raila, given the president previously endorsed Raila in 2007.

Political risk analyst Dismas Mokua argued that Raila’s absence would not “automatically transfer Raila’s bases to Ruto”.

“President Ruto will earn votes from Odinga’s bases by demonstrating leadership capacity, delivering on the Kenya Kwanza manifesto and aligning to Odinga’s bases individual and cumulative selfish interests and aspirations,” said Mokua.