Ukraine war: What's the endgame?

Civilians wearing military uniforms take part in a military training organised by Ukrainian soldiers of The Third Separate Assault Brigade in Kyiv, on November 23, 2024. [AFP]

There was never a formal declaration of war; Russia calls it a special operation. What we thought would be a lightning attack—take Kyiv by storm—has dragged on, sucking in even Kenyans, some captured or killed on the frontlines.  

The presence of Kenyans in such faraway places did not generate a national storm; maybe we felt wako kazi (it’s work).  

History is also on our side: we have fought in faraway lands before. Didn’t we fight in World War II in Burma, Madagascar, Libya, and other countries?

We are not alone; South Africans and many other nationalities have been sucked into this war. There is never a shortage of men and women ready to take advantage of a crisis.

There was forced conscription by chiefs during WWII; I know that because two of my uncles are veterans of WWII; they fought in Burma and luckily returned home. Today, money has replaced forced conscription. 

What’s happening in Ukraine?  It started with Russia annexing Crimea, the peninsula that juts into the Black Sea.

The peninsula is warm and strategic, on the route to the Mediterranean Sea and the world through the Strait of Bosporus, itself a site of a great battle in WWI. 

Crimea has long been coveted. Remember what Soviet leader Joseph Stalin did to the Tartars who once lived there? 

In the old Soviet Union, the top leaders owned dachas (holiday homes) in the Crimea. Remember Sochi nearby?  

There are also wineries in Crimea. Russia’s Czarina Catherine the Great got Crimea in 1783.

It became part of Ukraine in 1954, years after the 1917 revolution. Russia got it again in 2014. 

The Ukrainian war has deep historical and emotional roots. Remember, the Russian Orthodox Church had roots in Kyiv in 988 AD.

The History of Russia is fascinating and complex; it was part of our Form II syllabus. That was better than knowing what Zinjanthropus ate. What world history is taught today?  

By annexing Crimea in 2014, followed by a muted global reaction, Russia may have been emboldened to get more land. How effective were economic sanctions?   

The echoes of grandeur of the Old Soviet could have nudged Russia to war. The Soviet Union was once a counterweight to the US, both nuclear-powered. Remember mutually assured destruction (MAD)?

They couldn’t fight, lest they would destroy each other. Is that the strategy North Korea used in acquiring nuclear weapons?  

Today, the whole of Eastern Ukraine is occupied by Russia, including the Sea of Azov to the east of Crimea. The whole of the Ukrainian coastline by the Black Sea is almost in Russian hands. So, what’s the end game?

President Trump promised to end the Ukraine war once elected. It has not happened. The peace deal in Gaza has added urgency for such a deal in Ukraine. 

Will either side cede ground for peace after all the bloodshed? We have witnessed bloody fights in Kenya over land. Yet, it’s on land we are buried. What a fair justice? 

It is more than Ukrainian land being grabbed. It’s feared that if Russia is “rewarded” for taking over eastern Ukraine, it would be emboldened to take more land from the neighbouring countries.

Why else did some once neutral countries like Sweden and Finland join Nato (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, not Baringo’s Nato)? 

The prospects of Ukraine joining Nato rattled Russia and could be a contentious issue in any peace deal. 

The Russian anger has been simmering since former Eastern European countries, once under the Soviet Union orbit, joined Nato. 

Looking at the proposed peace deal, Ukraine would be left smaller, defenceless and vulnerable to future attacks.

That would create political instability. Remember Germany after WW I? Unstable Ukraine would send shivers across eastern and western Europe.  

This is accentuated by the withdrawal of the American security umbrella over Europe.

Most European countries are increasing their defence budget, with consequences for other domestic agendas and foreign aid. 

The Russians have staked a lot in this war or special operation and would be unwilling to let go of the land they have captured.

How would Russian nationalists and dreamers of a greater Russia react?

One achievement of the war in Ukraine seems to be nationalism and a tighter grip on power by Russian leaders.  

Each leader, Russia and Ukraine, is under pressure not to compromise. The Ukrainian stalemate mirrors the Vietnam War. Remember the domino theory? If Vietnam fell, other East Asia countries would fall to communism, it was assumed.   

European countries fear that if eastern Ukraine is taken by Russia, other countries would be taken too. It’s a legitimate fear, with Crimea, Donbas, Luhansk, and Donetsk gone. 

The Ukraine war has made Russia a power to reckon with; you have to calibrate your socio-political decisions against Russia and its allies.

Did you see the price of oil falling with the prospects of peace in Ukraine? Russia may not claw back all the power of the Soviet Union, but its global presence is being felt, including in Africa’s Sahel. 

To give a better suggestion on how to end the Ukrainian war, I would love to sit with Russians and Ukrainians and listen to their stories, which are laden with religious and political overtones.

I would add outsiders who have a stake in Ukrainian peace.

That includes European supporters and Americans.  

Maybe a neutral mediator is needed. Who could that be? Russia and Ukraine should declare a ceasefire, then negotiate within a given time frame; a year is enough.

Under a potential peace agreement, Russia would return land to Ukraine, and Ukraine would agree to remain outside of Nato while retaining its right to join the European Union. A good settlement should satisfy both countries, not necessarily outsiders. 

Let’s hope the current initiative to end the war will be a success, and the children of Ukraine will enjoy a peaceful Christmas after almost four years.

Out of curiosity, why are Kenyans so quiet on events in Gaza and Ukraine and more recently, Tanzania? 

Are our socio-economic problems taking all our time and energy? Could the long shadow of fear be a factor?