Broad based PG puts fence sitters on notice as scramble for defectors intensifies

President William Ruto alongside Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, ODM Leader Oburu Oginga, Prime CS Musalia Mudavadi, and Governors Susan Kihika, Gladys Wanga, and Cecily Mbarire arrive at the Lake Naivasha Resort in Nakuru County for the broad-based government retreat on August 10, 2026. [Kipsang Joseph, Standard]

Designed to shape the Broad Based coalition ahead of the 2027 General Election, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Parliamentary Group and Governors retreat at Lake Naivasha resort in Nakuru county, had among its top agenda how to consolidate, retain and increase their numbers of elected representatives.

ODM Party leader Oburu Odinga addressed the fence sitters in his speech, sending a warning shot to them to pick a side with exactly one year left before the polls.

"We must urge that let us be straight forward. If you have anything to raise just raise it honestly. Don't be a fence sitter. You must decide where you are because we want to know who is with us and who is not with us," said Oburu.

The remark was seemingly aimed at a section of the leaders from both parties who were lukewarm in support of the Government.

Among members who were initially perceived to be in this group were Minority Whip Millie Odhiambo and Rarieda MP Otiende Amollo who have previously voiced contradictory statements on the UDA-ODM relations. However, both leaders were present at the PG.

Another big issue that needed to be canvassed was zoning. President William Ruto addressed the big bone of contention of zoning that has threatened the unity of the two parties calling for an end in the tension between the two parties. He expressed confidence in them striking an agreement and forming the next Government together.

"This is not the first time we are having a coalition. Azimio was a coalition, Kenya Kwanza was a coalition, so what is the problem right now? We will agree on how we will move." Ruto said.

In the same line of thought, the President pointed out that there were discussions they would do behind the scenes without the presence of the media on the same issue.

But while fence sitters were warned and with zoning set to be addressed in the three-day retreat, both parties have been in the hunt to secure their bases and ensure they don't lose their numbers in both houses. Already, the PG has become a fertile ground to do this.

In a session held by the ODM party on Sunday evening, one notable Member of Parliament who was in the exclusive ODM meeting was Samburu West Naisula Lesuuda, who is currently serving her second term.

Naisula was elected on a KANU ticket in 2017 and re-elected on the same in 2022. In 2013, she served as a nominated senator after being nominated by The National Alliance party (TNA).

Photos from the session place her at the session signifying an attempt by ODM to bring her to their fold.

Naisula is seeking a third term and she has been featuring prominently in ODM engagements in the recent past, most recently on Saturday 7th August during a women empowerment drive in Nyamira county where ODM Nominated Mp Irene Mayaka was endorsed to vie for the Nyamira Woman Representative seat.

"We were in Azimio and I was elected on a KANU ticket but Raila was my political father." Naisula said during the event.

If Naisula decamps, it would be a big boost for the party that has lost a number of its parliamentarian to the Linda Mwananchi movement.

This came a day after ODM National Chairperson Gladys Wanga on Saturday in Homa Bay said that the party has already identified areas where the party will secure seats.

"This time we are going to bring more than a hundred seats to the ODM party. In fact, precisely, we have identified 127 seats that must be elected on the ODM party ticket." Wanga said.

Finance and National Planning Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi also said that he would dedicate weekends to campaign and ensure ODM secures 100 MPs.

The fishing net was however cast long before the PG, both parties have been in the transfer market trying get new signings for themselves.

While a couple of elected MPs and Senators from ODM are now in the Linda Mwananchi movement, UDA has also lost some elected members to the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP).

It is as a result of this that serious efforts have been made to try and capture some of the members elected on parties that were and are in the Azimio coalition together with Independently elected candidates.

Tigania East Member of Parliament Lawrence Mpuru Aburi of the National Ordinary People Empowerment Union (NOPEU) party, was present in the PG.

NOPEU was part of the Azimio coalition in 2022 but is now aligned with the Kenya Kwanza Government. Independent candidates who vied and won in the 2022 election like Lamu Woman Representative Muthoni Marubu, Kasarani MP Ronald Karauri and North Imenti MP Rahim Dawood have already defected to UDA.

Raiding Azimio

A serious onslaught has been on the opposition parties by the ruling Government. The Jubilee party has been the biggest casualty of departures to the broad based coalition as its  incumbent members have been sought after to bolster the numbers of broad based legislators.

Among those poached include Nyamira woman representative Jerusha Momanyi who is serving her second term having been elected on a Jubilee ticket but she has already declared her interest in vying for the Nyamira Governorship position on a UDA ticket.

West Mugirango MP Stephen Mogaka who was elected on Jubilee party has also aligned with the broad based coalition. Nominated Member of Parliament Sabina Chege was nominated to Parliament by Jubilee but she was among the first defectors to UDA.

Kitui South Member of Parliament Rachael Nyamai who was elected on a Jubilee party ticket in 2022, is currently serving her third term and she has also defected to the broad based faction. Lamu East MP Ruweida Mohamed has also been poached to UDA. Ranking Eldas MP Adan Keynan currently serving his fifth term has also defected to UDA.

Current Isiolo Senator Fatuma Dullo has also been poached from Jubilee. Sirisia MP John Waluke has also left the former ruling party. 

In the Wiper Patriotic Front, Kisii Woman Representative Dorice Donya who was elected in 2022 has since been siding with UDA as she is now seeking to become Bonchari Member of Parliament. Mwingi West Member of Parliament Charles Nguna who is serving his second term has also ditched Wiper and is now aligned with the UDA party.

At the Coast, first term Taveta Member of Parliament elected on a Wiper ticket John Bwire has been fished successfully by UDA and he has since been vocal moving around with UDA brigade across the country.

Justin Muturi's Democratic Party has also lost Embu Senator Alexander Mundigi to UDA. For the Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) led by Eugene Wamalwa, Kiminini Member of Parliament Maurice Bissau has aligned himself with the UDA party and he is seeking Trans Nzoia Governorship. Luanda MP Dick Maungu has also aligned himself with UDA. 

At the morning session of the PG, Senate Majority Leader Aaron Cheruiyot stated that there were 250 Members of Parliament out 348 who had signed into the meeting and  45 senators out of 67. Cheruiyot further claimed that the opposition could not martial such numbers in their coalition.

In the 2022 General election, UDA got a total of 22 out of 47 elected senators and 143 elected and nominated MPs while ODM got 89 elected and nominated MPs and 13 elected senators.

Notably absent at the PG was Kiharu Member of Parliament who had declared his dissatisfaction with the manner in which the Government has failed in executing their manifesto, signaling that he was on the way out. Nyoro said he would announce his next political direction but  he is yet to speak out more than one month later.

Even as consultations continue on how to zone the areas, a lot of movement and shifting alliances are set to grace the political landscape in the coming few days. For both parties, the biggest test will be to retain their seats and get new ones.