UDA, ODM retreat opens new battle over 2027 power-sharing deal

Siaya Senetor and ODM party leader Oburu Oginga with Kisumu woman rep Ruth Odinga. [ Standard]

The political marriage between President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) moves into a potentially decisive phase this week when leaders of the two parties retreat to Naivasha for three days of talks expected to test the durability of their broad-based government arrangement ahead of the 2027 General Election.

Coming exactly a year before Kenyans return to the ballot, the retreat is likely to be more than an exercise in reaffirming political cooperation. It offers the two parties an opportunity to begin confronting the difficult questions that could determine whether their working relationship in government can be transformed into a viable electoral alliance.

At the centre of the discussions will be the political bargain between the two parties, including ODM’s push for a stake in the 2027 presidential ticket, the question of who should deputise President Ruto and how elective positions should be shared in areas where UDA and ODM enjoy competing political influence.

President Ruto and ODM party leader Dr Oburu Oginga are expected to co-chair the meeting, giving the retreat a significance that goes beyond party officials reviewing their cooperation in government.

For ODM, the meeting provides an opportunity to press for greater political returns from its participation in the broad-based administration. The party has increasingly been associated with calls for Ruto to pick his running mate from within its ranks if the two sides agree to face the 2027 election together.

Several senior ODM figures have emerged in the succession conversation, including Dr Oburu, Co-operatives and MSMEs Development Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya and Mining and Blue Economy Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho.

But the demand for the Deputy President’s position is unlikely to be resolved in isolation. It is tied to a wider negotiation over the political influence ODM will have in the next election, the protection of its traditional bases and what it can secure from the partnership before Kenyans vote.

Political analyst Dismas Mokua sees the running mate demand as primarily a bargaining tool and believes ODM should avoid making the position a condition for the survival of the alliance.

“ODM must be realistic and give President Ruto a blank check in nominating a running mate,” said Mokua.

He argues that ODM has a bigger opportunity in the current arrangement, particularly if it uses the partnership to position itself for the 2032 succession.

“ODM has the unique opportunity to negotiate a partnership that serves the party’s interests ahead of the 2032 elections,” he added.

The argument points to a broader calculation within ODM: that participation in the 2027 alliance could be used to build political capital, influence government policy and strengthen the party’s position for the succession battle that follows.

But the running mate question also presents President Ruto with a delicate balancing act.

Dr Hesbon Owilla, a communications analyst, said ODM has significant leverage because of the political weight it brings to the broad-based arrangement, but cautions that this does not automatically translate into the Deputy President’s position.

“ODM has a very serious level of influence in these negotiations,” said Owilla, arguing that the party has become a constituency Kenya Kwanza cannot afford to lose.

Owilla noted that the collapse of the broad-based government could create the perception that Ruto has lost two of the country’s influential voting blocs, particularly following the erosion of support in parts of Mt Kenya.

But he considers the Deputy President’s position a long shot for ODM.

The communication expert argued that replacing Deputy President Kithure Kindiki could create more political problems for Ruto than retaining him, particularly in Mt Kenya, while opening a fresh contest among several politicians seeking the position.

The result, he says, would be a difficult balancing act in which the President would have to manage both the politician who gets the position and those who are left out.

The risk of forcing the issue is also captured by Mokua, who warns that the alliance could suffer if either side treats the partnership as an inflexible political arrangement.

“A forced marriage may end up a political disaster just like the impeachment of Mr Rigathi Gachagua,” he said.

The second major fault line is political zoning.

UDA has remained determined to field candidates across the country, including in areas traditionally regarded as ODM strongholds. ODM, on the other hand, wants to protect its electoral bases and prevent the broad-based arrangement from weakening its political machinery.

The issue presents a difficult contradiction. Allowing the two parties to compete against each other everywhere could split votes and hand seats to candidates outside the alliance. But excessive zoning could deny voters the opportunity to choose between strong candidates and create resentment within the coalition.

Owilla describes zoning as one of the most important issues the two parties must resolve at the retreat.

“Zoning is undemocratic,” he said, arguing that it can deny voters an opportunity to elect their preferred candidates by effectively imposing one side’s candidate.

Yet he acknowledges the electoral logic behind some form of coordination.

If UDA and ODM compete neck for neck in areas where neither has overwhelming dominance, the two could split their support and lose seats to candidates outside the broad-based arrangement.

He also warns that zoning could create voter apathy if supporters believe an election has already been decided because one party has withdrawn its candidate.

The challenge, therefore, is to protect the alliance from friendly fire without disenfranchising voters.

One possible solution is joint primaries, where UDA and ODM candidates compete and the winner becomes the coalition’s candidate.

Mokua similarly favours the approach, arguing that political zoning could protect both parties from losing seats but warning that excessive zoning could give non-alliance candidates an opportunity to upset the political calculations.

The stakes extend beyond individual constituencies. Poorly managed nominations could affect the composition of the National Assembly and Senate and potentially cost UDA and ODM their parliamentary majority.

Mokua said the two parties need strategic sensitivity and scenario analysis if they are serious about retaining control of Parliament after 2027.

The alliance must also accommodate senior politicians whose ambitions stretch beyond the current arrangement.

Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula and Senate Speaker Amason Kingi remain influential figures with presidential ambitions of their own.

Mokua describes them as tier one politicianswho have placed their presidential ambitions on hold to support Ruto.

“UDA-ODM will survive leaders’ competing interests if President Ruto is dexterous in managing tier one politicians’ interests,” he said.

He warns that mishandling them could ultimately weaken the President’s re-election bid.

Owilla, however, believes the broader partnership is likely to survive because most politicians within the arrangement still have an incentive to remain inside government and negotiate while the incumbent has political leverage.

Some leaders may fall away as the election approaches, particularly if they feel excluded from the final formula, but the alliance still has enough incentives to keep most of its players together.

For ODM, the bigger prize could ultimately lie beyond the Deputy President’s office.

Mokua argues that the party can use the partnership to honour the legacy of its late leader Raila Odinga while pursuing a long-standing objective of influencing how national resources are allocated.

That makes the Naivasha retreat a negotiation over more than positions. It is about how UDA and ODM share electoral space, distribute influence and maintain enough unity to face the 2027 election as a coherent political force.

President Ruto is expected to deliver the closing remarks and outline the roadmap for the next phase of the broad-based government.

What emerges from Naivasha could offer an early indication of whether UDA and ODM are building a genuine electoral alliance or simply extending a political arrangement whose real test will come when the interests of government partners collide with the demands of an election.