Has population decline affected European football powerhouses?

The Euros have just ended. Spain deservedly lifted their fourth European title after beating England 2-1 on Sunday, July 15, completing a tournament they dominated from start to finish.

Two youngsters, Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams, are rooted deep in La Roja's celebrations. Both players, aged 17 and 22 respectively, celebrated their birthdays just days before the final, bringing a much-needed youthful energy to Luis de la Fuente's side.

De la Fuente praised the duo, describing them as having a "gift from God" while crediting their talent for giving Spain a crucial attacking edge.

“They are young players, especially Lamine, he's a young boy, with incredible talent that only the chosen ones have. They have a gift from God, very few players have these qualities,” he said. Their contributions were vital in breaking the nation's decade-long title drought, a period marked by struggles both on and off the field.

Spain's return to glory comes at a time when European football is facing significant challenges. The Euro 2024 tournament exposed a concerning trend - traditional football powerhouses grappling with declining performances, a phenomenon closely linked to broader demographic shifts.

Many European nations are experiencing population declines due to ageing populations, low birth rates, and high emigration rates. The World Population Review lists Bulgaria as the leading country in population decline, with a 22.5% reduction. As of January 1, 2024, the European Union's population stood at 449 million, with Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Poland comprising 65% of this total. These demographic shifts impact the football landscape as nations struggle to maintain robust youth development programs amidst shrinking pools of young talent.

Spain's demographic challenge

Earlier in February, the National Statistics Institute (INE) said Spain had experienced its lowest birth rate since 1941. Despite the spotlight on young talents like Williams and Yamal, the squad featured six players aged 30 and above, including 38-year-old Jesus Navas and 43-year-old Real Madrid veterans Joselu and Nacho Fernandez. Ipsos recently categorised Spain among countries with the oldest populations in the world, alongside Japan and Slovenia.

Germany’s ageing squad

Germany fielded the oldest squad in Euro 2024, with an average age of 28.5 years. Coach Julian Nagelsmann has tried introducing new talent, but the issue persists. The withdrawal of 21-year-old Aleksandar Pavlović and the inclusion of 30-year-old Emre Can stressed this challenge. However, promising young stars like Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala, both 21, offer a glimmer of hope for the future.

Italy's declining birth rate

Italy faces a severe demographic crisis. In March, the National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) reported that the country’s birth rate plummeted to an average of 1.2 children per woman in 2023, down from 1.24 in 2022. This decline threatens to reduce the country's population by nearly one million by 2030. They struggled after their 2020 European Championship victory on the football front, failing to qualify for the 2022 World Cup and exiting Euro 2024 early. Luciano Spalletti’s squad average age is 26.5 years, with veteran Matteo Darmian, 34, being the oldest player.

Croatia leaning on veterans

Croatia’s population stood at 4 million in January 2024, slightly decreasing from the previous year. The World Population Review predicts the country’s population to shrink to 3.1 million by 2050, after reaching its peak in 1991 (4.7 million). They are fast ageing and could record the most significant drop among all European Union members by 2030. The men’s national football team relies heavily on seasoned players, including the tournament’s oldest scorer, Luka Modric. This reliance on older players underscores the difficulties in integrating young talent into the national team.

Portugal's mixed demographic picture

Portugal presents a mixed demographic picture. While the population’s natural balance remained negative, there was a slight improvement in 2023 with 85,699 live births, a 2.4% increase from the previous year, according to INE. However, deaths and emigration continue to outnumber births, resulting in an increasingly ageing population. The Portuguese squad for Euro 2024 had an average age of 27, featuring several players over 30, including veterans like Cristiano Ronaldo and Pepe, the latter being the oldest player in the tournament at 41.

Poland: A population in decline

Poland has experienced its lowest birth rate since World War II. According to Eurostat, it recorded the largest population decline among all European Union member states last year. The population has decreased by nearly one million over the past decade and is in the sixth consecutive year of decline.

Since the outbreak of the pandemic, the decline has become more pronounced compared to other EU countries. The Polish squad's average age is 27.9, with key player Robert Lewandowski, 35, struggling to maintain his previous goal-scoring form. The reliance on older players signals a need for a new generation of talent, which is currently lacking.

French birth rates falling

Previously, France was an exception to the global decline in birth rates, but it is now seeing similar trends. The country recorded fewer than 700,000 births in 2023 for the first time since World War II, a 20% decrease from 2010, per the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies. The fertility rate has dropped to 1.68 children per woman, far below the replacement level of 2.1.

Despite these challenges, coach Didier Deschamps assembled a strong squad for Euro 2024, opting for a 25-man roster that indicated a blend of experience and youth. Antoine Griezmann and N'Golo Kante, both 33, were among a squad with an average age of 26.5.