At the height of the last elections, Musalia Mudavadi was seen by many as the frontrunner to succeed former President Mwai Kibaki.

Insiders in Kibaki's government it was alleged had almost succeeded in convincing the UhuRuto duo to step down for Mudavadi. The duo had the ICC tag hanging over their heads.

Before long, the idea was dropped by the two leaving Mudavadi badly wounded. In the end, he performed dismally in the polls where he became a distant third.

Pundits attribute the poor showing to confusion among his supporters. Prior to the fallout, Mudavadi was excited when it seemed clear he had bagged the Jubilee ticket. Most Luhya people have a soft spot for Mudavadi. He easily attracts the backing of the populous community.

With the next election fast approaching, the Mudavadi factor in Luhya will feature prominently. Whichever camp he joins, it will have a bigger chunk of the Mulembe vote.

More importantly, if he is endorsed as the flag-bearer, the sponsoring coalition will get the total Luhya vote. Yes, the Mudavadi factor will loom large in the August polls.