My thoughts on Gachagua's 2027 State House dream

Former DP Rigathi Gachagua during a past interview at his Karen residence. [File, Standard]

Rigathi Gachagua's entrance into the presidential race has ruffled a few feathers, numbed the excitement of some in the opposition circles, and left others in a dilemma - unsure of what that means to the united opposition.

My take is that his decision could only mean two scenarios, with one being the most probable. One is that Gachagua may have chosen to be selfish about his personal political agenda, where winning the presidency isn't really the target, but his personal influence is. However, the more probable scenario is that all the senior opposition leaders have agreed to throw their hats into the ring as a consolidation strategy towards 2027.

The strategy, as I see it, is that every regional kingpin will be tasked with upping their regional numbers by appearing to be serious candidates, forming something like the 2007 ODM Pentagon, and eventually giving way to the two most probable finalists: Kalonzo Musyoka and Fred Matiang'i.

There is a reason why Gachagua has yet to convince anyone that he can actually galvanise the opposition numbers as a candidate. Despite his growing popularity in opposition circles, Gachagua is still seen as a Kikuyu supremacist who does not recognise Kenya as a nation with a shared history and future.

His "Kenya is a country of shares" slur will follow him for a long time. Unfortunately, he does not seem to be in a hurry to shed it off even when opportunities have presented themselves. That notwithstanding, Gachagua is a bright politician whose actions are a testament to his political science background, long-term public service, and the forced wisdom that comes with political setbacks.

He knows both the strengths and weaknesses of his own candidature as well as that of his compatriots. From my analysis of his demeanor and expressions, he is likely to endorse a KAMATIA Movement led by Kalonzo and Matiang'i.

The strengths of this formation would be Kalonzo's long-term political experience, amiable character, a well-consolidated political region, and ability to appeal to former CORD, NASA and Azimio supporters. The weaknesses, however, would lie in the expressed desire by Kenyans to completely depart from politics of the past. For that reason, this group strongly endorses a Matiang'i flagbearership with a younger politician as a running mate.

Whatever the formation, Gachagua is not going to the ballot as a serious candidate-and if he does, the alternate scenario automatically applies. In that case, he will uncharacteristically bear the label of a mole in the opposition, with his eyes fixed not on State House but on his political leverage in a Ruto presidency.

My conclusion is: Gachagua knows his place in the opposition matrix as an able mobiliser but not a flagbearer. However, there is a small chance of being carried away by the masses pushing for change, that recognise him as a key cog in the opposition, and thus continue to flock to his meetups. For this, he may sacrifice his honour. He may even go the Matiba way.

In 1992, Matiba, though popular, was pushed into the ballot not to win but to break the opposition.