Ruto's plot to weaken the opposition

President William Ruto and ODM leader Oburu Oginga during the UDA-ODM joint Parliamentary Group meeting at KICC in Nairobi. [PCS]

As the 2027 General Election beckons, President William Ruto is navigating a high-stakes strategy designed to consolidate power by systematically weakening the opposition, with the Orange Democratic Movement party bearing the brunt.

Pundits argue that the Head of State is now employing a multi-pronged approach, which includes fueling regional divisions to create confusion among voters.

The other is to deliberately create some disgruntlement among his allies in different ethnic blocks, with them making some crazy demands, they know fully well the president will not fulfil.

In the western region, leaders already accommodated under the broad-based banner have revived calls for elusive Luhya unity ahead of the polls, with Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, Cabinet Secretary for Cooperatives and MSMEs Wycliffe Oparanya, and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula initiating efforts to make it a reality. 

Two weeks ago, the trio met more than 30 MPs from the Western region and drawn from various parties under the broad-based arrangement to strategise on how they will approach next year’s polls.

Another group led by CS Hassan Ali Joho and a group of MPs from the Coast region had, a week earlier, met in Mombasa to make demands similar to those made to Ruto, including that the deputy president’s position be reserved for them.

Ruto’s endgame is to divert attention from the opposition’s support base and other protest groups, as he cleverly maintains a studious silence on their demands.

Firmly focused on retaining a second term in office, Ruto is determined to paint the opposition as a confused lot without an agenda, as he also ensures they are too divided to mount any credible challenge to him.

Political analyst cum Kiambu politician Charles Munyui avers that Ruto’s actions and those of his allies point to an administration that will stop at nothing to shore up numbers ahead of the polls.

“President William Ruto has every motivation to split the opposition because they are creating all manner of problems for his administration, especially in the Mt Kenya region, where his support is seriously eroded,” says Munyui.

Matters are complicated for President Ruto because the opposition is keeping him guessing on how they will approach the 2027 elections.

The opposition has delayed the naming of its flagbearer ahead of the 2027 elections. That is another challenge that worries the president and his allies.

President Ruto’s political chess move to engineer regional divisions has been evidenced by his allies’ efforts to fragment the opposition, especially in the Coast and Western regions.

He has already splintered the ODM party and taken hold of a sizeable voting block in Luo Nyanza, because of the support he is getting from the Linda Ground group led by ODM party leader Oburu Oginga.

A weak ODM party is more favourable to Ruto, because it gives him an upper negotiating hand, as opposed to negotiating with a unified party that garnered over six million votes in the 2022 general elections.

To get that support, Ruto had also promised the group

The Oburu group the deputy president position and a share of government if they help him in the 2027 presidential poll.

Leaders under the so-called broad-based government have time without number advocated for zoning of regions to allow parties to field candidates in their strongholds.

But with fights in political parties again being fueled by the president’s UDA party and his allies, it appears he is creating room for his party to also get room to run aspirants in elective positions, so that they campaign for him at the grassroots across the country.

When Luhya leaders led by Mudavadi met, sources said they discussed how best they would rally together to establish a structured pre-election negotiation with Ruto, as they plan to table their irreducible minimums before they support his re-election bid.

“Most of the leaders felt Ruto was considering the Western region as his stronghold while considering ODM as an equal partner ahead of next year’s polls. Some mooted for a one united political vehicle, while others suggested more consultations,” a source who attended the meeting said.

 The Luhya leaders were apprehensive that ODM was loud on its demands with President Ruto and had gone ahead to demand the Deputy President and Speaker posts, a move that threatens both Wetangula and Mudavadi’s relevance in Ruto’s political arithmetic.

“Proposals to go back to the people and conduct civic engagements were placed on the table as the three leaders urged to come out and publicly speak about what the region would demand of the President in case he wants the region to back his re-election bid,” an MP who attended the forum said.

Should the trio’s strategy to form a special-purpose political party that negotiates with President Ruto on behalf of the region materialise, it will erode ODM’s influence in the western region.

Their strategy could, however, run into political headwinds given the emergence of young Turks from the region who are out to wrestle for control of Luhya politics from their grip. Embattled ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna and Saboti MP Caleb Amisi and Vihiga senator Godfrey Osotsi's rallies in the region have attracted massive support from the electorate and the elected leaders.

Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya has also, over the last two years, championed his Tawe movement, which is also strongly supported by Kakamega Senator Bonny Khalwale.

At the Coast, leaders coalescing around the Mining and Blue Economy Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho have, in the recent past, threatened to form a new political outfit should the ODM Party fail to name Joho as Ruto's running mate in the run-up to 2027.

They have held that they will stop at nothing in their bid to secure a stronger national political footing for the region.

“If ODM party does not hand the Deputy President position to Joho in 2027, we must champion another political path for our people,” said former Cabinet Minister Aisha Jumwa. She was speaking on January 7 this year during an event to celebrate Raila’s 81st birthday in Kilifi.

“To secure the interest of our community, we must have a political party. And that will be one of the parties already here in the coastal region. You, Hassan Joho, should bring all the parties together and leaders can decide on which one we will use as a vehicle to champion our interests,” she added.

Other leaders present included Kilifi Woman rep Getrude Mbeyu, Mombasa Mombasa Governor Abdulswammad Nassir, Kilifi Governor Gideon Mung’aro, Garsen MP Ali Wario, Kilifi South MP Ken Chonga and Kaloleni MP Paul Katana.

But despite pressure from the ODM proponents demanding the DP position in a possible 2027 coalition, President Ruto has not formally engaged, leaving the political future of current top officials in a state of uncertainty.

More recently, Narok Senator Ledama Ole Kina has hinted that the Maa community would also not be left out of the negotiating table. Through a post on his “X” account, the leader made a rallying call to members of his community to “unite and negotiate as one force”.

“In Maasai land, everyone is Maasai. Political alignment means nothing when we are reduced to just 2.2 per cent of the so-called political population. Yet come 2027, the Maasai must stand for something or be counted for nothing. The journey begins now. Let us see who truly rises: those ready to defend a collective future, or those scrambling to carve out relevance within that same 2.2 per cent,” he posted

“…We cannot pretend anymore. The orange grill is no longer one. What once looked united is now fractured. And still, we either unite and negotiate as one force, or we sit back and be divided, sliced apart, and fed into the same fire, whether it’s the yellow grill or the red grill. I still believe we will prevail. But belief alone won’t save us, only unity will.”