Five predictions that will shape 2027 polls outcome and beyond

My first comprehensive participation in Kenyan General Election was in 1997 when I, and several youthful, bright eyed and bushy tailed compatriots, campaigned for Mama Charity Ngilu in her efforts to unseat President Moi.

Under the progressive and policy defined Social Democratic Party, we balked the trend of supporting our regional King pin and gave our meagre financial and vast human resources, to the Ngilu campaign. Even though we knew we could not unseat President Moi, or beat Candidate Kibaki, we believed we were on the right path for Kenya.

Predictably, we lost big, but to our credit, we ended up with a significant number of SDP MPs. Since then, I have been involved in numerous campaigns as an insider. I have naturally become older, increasingly pragmatic, and hopefully wiser.

It is from this observer and participant platform that I wish to share some thoughts on the predictable paths, much like previous elections, that elections 2027 will follow.

Firstly, the incumbent will undergo this election with both the benefits and downsides of incumbency. My prediction is that the benefits will outweigh the downsides.

President Ruto will benefit from the massive direct and indirect resources available for campaigning which enables him to be on campaign mode through five years. With the right projects strategically implemented to tell a performer story, he can define a narrative that is difficult to un-tell.

The downside is that his opponents, unlike him, can sell hope and promise. Unlike them, he will have to depend on a track record which will be contested, especially if his flagship projects are struggling.

In an age of discontent, where citizens are more aware of their socio-economic rights and generally unhappy with the political elite, selling incumbency is tough.

However, President Ruto’s advantage on this score is that his opponents have all previously served in government. None can convincingly sell an outsider narrative without their past CV soiling the discourse.

There is also the benefit of tradition. Since multipartyism started, every President has served two terms.

The other predictable dynamic is that Kenyans will still vote regionally. I used to believe we had outgrown family, clan, tribe and region but I have been disabused of this foolishness.

Granted, some urbanised youth, the Gen Z folk who stormed parliament in 2024, will vote outside regional block patterns but not sufficiently to make a substantial difference. The challenge is that even for these urbanised youth, there is no energising candidate that the “United opposition” can rally around.

Or maybe they will all stand in their regions and try and force a rerun, either strategically, or forced into it by circumstances, including failure to agree. That is a risky strategy, vicious friendly fire during campaigns that may prejudice future unity.

The third predicable reality is that there will be political handshakes after the results. The late Raila Odinga bequeathed Kenya a phenomenon that is now part of our political DNA. All the brickbats, even between the most vociferous opponents, will be forgotten when the post-election season arrives. Kenyans need to learn to take political contests lightly.

Fourth prediction; most of the current sitting MPs, MCAs and governors will be sent home, courtesy of this season of discontent. If voters find themselves unwilling to send the President home, they will ensure the “elite price” is paid by other offices.

Finally, I can predict that the elections will be challenged vociferously on the basis of “kimeimbiwo”. The truth, however, is that since 2013, when the ballots were lawfully required to be counted and recorded at polling stations, it is almost impossible to steal elections, unless the candidate or party does not have agents. The stealing then occurs at polling station level. But alleging theft prepares the ground for handshakes.

Of course, a lot of the compromise of elections occurs long before the polling day but that is never the focus of the contestants.

All that said, I could be wrong. The Kenyan voter may yet surprise us in 2027. I'm, however, convinced that whatever changes occur in voter behaviour in 2027, it  will not make a significant difference to the ultimate outcome.