How pollution crisis drives millions to early deaths

Concept of pollution and toxic pollutants inside the human body. [Courtesy/GettyImages]

Pollution and environmental degradation now kill nine million people every year. That is the scale of harm outlined in the new Global Environment Outlook (GEO-7) report released in Nairobi during UNEA-7.

The figure exceeds deaths from war, HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis combined. It illustrates how the planet’s environmental emergency has become a global public-health crisis, especially in low- and middle-income countries.

The report, produced by 287 scientists from 82 countries, warns that pollution, climate change, biodiversity loss, land degradation and chemical exposure are already costing trillions of dollars in healthcare, lost productivity and damaged ecosystems.

Air pollution alone generated US$8.1 trillion in economic losses in 2019, equal to 6.1 per cent of global GDP. Plastic-related chemical exposure adds another US$1.5 trillion in health costs. These burdens are felt in African cities with poor air quality, in rural communities with contaminated water sources, and in urban settlements located near industrial dumpsites.

Kenya is no exception. In Nairobi, respiratory diseases are among the leading causes of outpatient visits. A 2024 National Environment Management Authority (NEMA) audit found microplastics in rivers feeding into Nairobi Dam and the Athi River. Farmers in Kirinyaga and Murang’a report declining soil fertility linked to chemical overuse.

Fisherfolk in Lake Victoria face algal blooms tied to pollution and runoff. These issues mirror the global patterns set out in GEO-7. The report’s warning is blunt: current development pathways intensify these risks. Greenhouse gas emissions have risen 1.5 per cent annually since 1990.

Extreme weather events now cost US$143 billion every year. Between 20 and 40 per cent of the world’s land is degraded. One million species face extinction.

These trends point towards a more unstable, more expensive and more dangerous future if countries continue with business as usual. GEO-7 has further warned the world that inaction will cost more than solutions. The economic consequences of inaction are severe.

GEO-7 projects that climate change will cut 4 per cent off global GDP by 2050, rising to 20 per cent by 2100 without major interventions. Heatwaves, droughts, floods, crop failures and infrastructure collapse will increase fiscal pressure on governments. For Kenya, which spends billions responding to droughts and floods, these findings are familiar.

During the launch, UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen emphasised this point, calling the report “a simple choice for humanity.” She said the world must choose between “a future devastated by climate change, dwindling nature, degraded land and polluted air, or a healthy planet, healthy people and healthy economies.”

She urged nations to “build on progress” made in climate, biodiversity and pollution agreements and accelerate implementation.

Kenya sits at the centre of this discussion. The country has endured multiple climate shocks in the past decade. The devastating 2022–2023 drought affected more than 4 million people.

The 2024 El Niño floods displaced thousands, destroyed crops in Budalangi and Ganze, and damaged transport corridors in Garissa and Tana River. These events strain national budgets, reverse development gains and expose gaps in disaster-preparedness systems.

GEO-7 notes that these impacts will worsen. Under business-as-usual scenarios, global temperatures will surpass 1.5°C in the early 2030s, exceed 2°C by the 2040s, and continue climbing.

Food production will fall. Water scarcity will increase. Coastal cities will face stronger storm surges. For Kenya, this means more crop failures in key maize-growing regions, increased cattle losses in ASAL counties, and higher urban heat stress in Nairobi and Mombasa.

Yet the report also provides a pathway to stability. GEO-7 identifies five systems; energy, food, materials and waste, the environment, and the economy that, if transformed, would deliver long-term stability and economic growth.

The projected gains begin mid-century. By 2070, the world could unlock US$20 trillion in annual macroeconomic benefits, rising to US$100 trillion towards the end of the century. These gains come from cleaner air, restored ecosystems, resilient food systems, more efficient energy use, and reduced disaster losses.

The report estimates that nine million premature deaths can be avoided by 2050 through pollution controls.

About 200 million people could be lifted out of undernourishment with sustainable food systems. Over 100 million people could escape extreme poverty through green economic shifts.

Kenya, pushing to expand geothermal energy in Olkaria and Menengai, shows how clean energy boosts industrial growth and reduces emissions. Community-led restoration in Taita Taveta, Samburu, and Kajiado demonstrates how nature-based solutions rebuild degraded landscapes.

Clean cooking initiatives in Nairobi and Kisumu reduce indoor air pollution, improve health, and lower household energy costs. The report stresses that achieving net-zero emissions and restoring biodiversity requires US$8 trillion in annual global investments through 2050.

The cost is high, but the cost of inaction is higher. For Kenya, access to affordable climate financing remains a barrier. High interest rates limit renewable energy expansion. Counties lack resources to scale nature-based solutions. Waste management reforms stall due to inadequate infrastructure.

GEO-7 calls for a transition away from GDP as the sole marker of progress. It recommends metrics that capture natural capital, human well-being and ecosystem health.

Kenya supports this shift. The government argues that countries protecting forests, restoring land, and building resilience should receive financial rewards. This aligns with Kenya’s role in the African Group of Negotiators, where it advocates for adaptation finance, forest protection, and equitable climate policies.

The report also emphasises indigenous and local knowledge as essential to just transitions.