Rigathi Gachagua's last 48hrs to decide

It is going to be the loneliest 48 hours the Deputy President has ever experienced. The moment senate proceedings start this morning, the beginning of the end will have started. 

The Swahili have a proverb for  Gachagua's streak of bad luck: Siku ya nyani kufa miti yote huteleza (All trees are slippery on a monkey's last day of life).

They have another, more encouraging, for a person in the DP's position: Baada ya dhiki faraja, whose equivalent in English is the saying 'It is darkest before the dawn'.

Gachagua, on a lonely path that could lead to political Siberia, will be biting his nails, hoping the second proverb holds true for him and that there is light at the end of the tunnel.

He suffered a blow in court yesterday, which declined to stop his impeachment hearing at the Senate. A three-judge bench will decide on a similar request this morning.

It does not seem like there is any respite as the Senate today begins to hear the DP's impeachment. Going by the result of a vote in the National Assembly, Gachagua's goose is cooked. His impeachment has been as partisan as it can be, with President William Ruto teaming up with former Prime Minister Raila Odinga to hound the DP out of office.

The Senate is likely to vote on the impeachment tomorrow but could extend the sittings to Friday.

President Ruto is expected to nominate a new deputy president on Friday if the Senate concludes the matter tomorrow, with Parliament proceeding to vote on the nomination within 60 days.

The High Court was yesterday evening asked to issue orders preventing the president from nominating a deputy until a consolidated case challenging the impeachment is heard and determined.

Gachagua faces charges of violating the Constitution, allegedly committing crimes and gross misconduct, the three grounds for which a president or their deputy can be removed from office through impeachment.

His more notable crimes include likening the government to a shareholding entity, which many have argued marginalised significant populations of the country, amassing immense wealth since becoming the DP and insubordination.

At the National Assembly, Gachagua argued that he was essentially misunderstood, defending his shareholding remarks as contained in Kenya Kwanza's power-sharing agreement.

He also said he had made his millions through legal ways and was a loyal deputy, eager to pick up his boss's habits. Some of them include criticising the judiciary and senior officials in the criminal justice system.

In the thick of the youth-led uprising that brought Ruto to his knees, Gachagua said National Intelligence Services Director General Noordin Haji had slept on the job.

It is almost certain that Gachagua will fall in the Senate, where Ruto and Raila control the numbers.

"The president has decided and the senators will play ball," said University of Nairobi lecturer Francis Owakah, highlighting the inevitability of the Gachagua's ouster.

"Gachagua is gone. If the president wanted to save him he would have done that already. This is a marriage. If he saves him now, how will they relate going forward?" posed Dr Owakah.

Gachagua appears ready for this eventuality given how busy he has been in the courts. He has made frantic attempts to halt the impeachment hearing, all of which have fallen flat.

Nearly 30 petitions have failed to secure Gachagua relief from the immense battering he is receiving. He has the option of resigning and saving his political career but that seems off the table, with the DP recently laughing off such suggestions.

If the Senate upholds his impeachment, Gachagua's political career is over as he will never hold political office. But the courts could save him and help spring him to new political heights.

He has sought to be the 'kingpin' of his native Mount Kenya backyard and has recently succeeded in swaying the region into his corner. He has put "Mlima" first in everything he has done, earning himself claims of being a tribalist and an impeachment he should have seen coming.

Gachagua, whose political star rose as fast as its dimming, was destined for such troubles.

Slightly over two years ago, lawmakers from his Mount Kenya backyard opposed his pick as Ruto's running mate. They accused the DP, then Mathira MP, of being too abrasive. But their rejection of Gachagua in favour of Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki was more about keeping the race to succeed former President Uhuru Kenyatta as Mt Kenya's supremo open.

Until months ago, it had seemed Gachagua's critics had mended fences. But a fallout between Ruto and his deputy would see Kenya Kwanza MPs pick sides. The Head of State bagged the majority, who consistently threatened to impeach Gachagua.

Ruto had thwarted an earlier ouster plan but has remained silent amid the current push, with Gachagua arguing that the motion had the president's blessings.