Raila's influence in government grows as allies clinch key posts

If there had been doubts about former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s growing influence in President William Ruto’s government, they were significantly settled with appointing the former premier’s allies as principal secretaries.

Nothing could come between President Ruto’s plan to keep Raila in his corner – not even the fear that bloating the government could anger the masses, given that such grievances fueled last year’s youth-led revolt against tax hikes.

In the latest shake-up of the government, the former prime minister added to his allies’ already significant roles in Ruto’s cabinet. National Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi and Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi hold two of the country’s most significant jobs.

The changes show that Raila has essentially cemented his position within Ruto’s government, although he has previously tried to feign independence as an opposition politician.

Ahead of the shuffle announced by Head of Public Service Felix Koskei, Raila had met Mbadi, Wandayi and CSs Hassan Joho (Mining) and Wycliffe Oparanya (Co-operatives). The four are among the former premier’s staunchest allies and owe some loyalty to him.

Similarly, some of the new nominees for PS positions are in Raila’s debt. They include Nyeri Deputy Governor Caroline Karugu (East African Affairs), former Nominated Senator Judith Pareno (Justice, Human Rights and Constitutional Affairs) and Ahmed Abdisalan (National Government Co-ordination).

While the President may have selected them, observers have pointed out that Raila is their de facto appointing authority as he fronted their names to Ruto.

Herman Manyora, a lecturer at the University of Nairobi’s linguistics and languages department, described Raila as “a very powerful man”.

“The President is sending signals that Raila is relevant, important and is almost running the government with him,” said Manyora.

Although he has no official office, the opposition veteran seems to wield immense power within Ruto’s administration. Ruto hinted as much when he signed his cooperation agreement with Raila weeks ago, stating that he would ensure the former premier was “respected”.

That “respect” has been manifest in recent weeks, with Raila elevated above most top government officials. On Tuesday evening, Raila sat at the high table during a state banquet in honour of the visiting King of the Netherlands, Willem-Alexander.

He was placed two seats away from the King to the right, flanking Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, who sat next to the monarch. 

A day later as the Head of State awarded a charter to Riara University, it was Raila who ushered him on stage. The former prime minister, who had been invited by Education Cabinet Secretary Julius Ogamba, used the presidential podium, which had been switched just as Ogamba was finalizing his speech. Behind him stood the Kenyan flag. Ruto would use the same lectern.

The same happened when they signed the cooperation agreement, with  Kindiki inviting Raila on stage, terming him “Prime Minister”. A few days earlier, Kindiki also ceded his role of inviting the President to Raila.

“Raila is holding true influence and Ruto has no choice but to let him have a free hand. The President has to embrace someone with popular support because he lacks it. He has to make Raila believe he is second in command or holds a 50-50 share of the government,” Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi observed.

“Ruto must be careful because of Raila’s history of destroying the political organization of parties he collaborated with in the past, such as Kanu and Narc, which have never recovered. But Ruto is also cunning and that is why he has criss-crossed ODM zones after the CS appointments,” he added.

Dr Timothy Onduru, who teaches history at Moi University, said the Head of State had to give the impression that Raila holds some power “to get support from Raila’s backyard.”

“How else will Raila’s supporters trust him? Ruto said he wants Kenyans to respect Raila and he must lead by example and offer a sense of respect,” said Dr Onduru.

Manyora concurred, saying it was in the President’s interest to give Raila “a larger-than-life profile”.

“Before Ruto gives Raila the prime minister’s position, he must make people know that Raila is the de facto PM. It was always clear after the AUC loss that Ruto had to do something to maintain Raila’s standing among his supporters in the hope that they will follow Raila wherever he takes them,” said Manyora.

Since Ruto and the former premier closed ranks last July, Raila has been the Head of State’s sidekick. It had a lot to do with Raila’s flopped bid for the African Union Commission chairperson. The former premier tagged along in most of Ruto’s trips abroad to campaign for the seat.

For the longest time, Raila has dismissed talk that such proximity to the President meant that he was a part of the ruling administration. However, he has recently changed his tone, admitting that he was helping the Head of State in some unspecified way.

For instance, he tells the masses that his partnership with Ruto will see some of the country’s most pressing issues fixed.

“…Kenyans are suffering because of this social health insurance scheme which is not working properly… we are committed to ensuring that the issues that are of concern,” Raila said as he met some surviving Mau Mau veterans and their kin last week.