ODM grapples with identity crisis amid rift over Ruto deal

Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) seems to be grappling with an identity crisis.

The opposition party is struggling to balance its position both inside and outside President William Ruto’s government, with party leaders frequently at odds over its direction. Some argue that the party should remain an independent opposition force, holding Ruto’s administration accountable, while others are seemingly more comfortable sitting at Kenya Kwanza’s dinner table.

Ruto’s truce with Raila in July last year marked the beginning of a new alliance, and the Head of State appointed five ODM politicians to his Cabinet: John Mbadi (Treasury), Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), Hassan Joho (Mining), Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives), and Beatrice Askul (East African Community).

In return, Raila has secured the government’s backing as he campaigns to be elected as the African Union Commission Chairperson.

Brought on board to help stabilise a party shaken by a youth-led revolt last year, ODM has not disappointed. Many of its members sided with Ruto’s allies to impeach former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

The opposition’s senior figures have also emerged as some of the staunchest defenders of Ruto’s government, at times even more vocal than members of the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

Some ODM leaders have accompanied the president on various engagements, almost pledging their loyalty. Among them is ODM national chairperson and Homa Bay County Governor, Gladys Wanga, who danced into 2024 in Ruto’s company in Kisii. Wanga has been frequently mentioned as a potential running mate for Ruto in 2027. Raila has also maintained a close relationship with the president. He was present when Ghana’s President-elect John Mahama visited Ruto at his Kilgoris home, and they appeared together at a recent event in Homa Bay. Just yesterday, the two graced the ongoing Piny Luo cultural Festival in Siaya, where they were joined by Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni.

National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed recently suggested that the opposition was now firmly part of the government. “We are not getting out. Even if you (Ruto) declare here that you have kicked us out, we won’t get out,” he said in Narok. He also rebuked Gachagua for attempting to lead the opposition, declaring, “I would rather go back to the opposition and take up my role.”

Raila, however, reiterated in a recent interview that there was no formal agreement between him and Ruto. “We seconded some of our people to the government to work, but it was not like forming a pact. It was not a coalition, because we did not sit down and negotiate the basis of a coalition,” the former premier said on Citizen TV, where he also expressed concern over the ongoing abductions of government critics.

In the days following, ODM’s acting leader, Kisumu Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o, signalled the party’s readiness to lead a resistance against the government’s human rights abuses.

“We are ready to lead a popular resistance to dictatorial and oppressive politics, such as abductions and the use of pre-Cambrian political threats,” Nyong’o told a local daily.

This statement, however, stirred disquiet within ODM, with some pro-government members protesting. Robert Alai, the Kileleshwa Member of County Assembly (MCA), made it clear that the party would not return to protests. “ODM is not going back to that nonsense.

Take this to the bank… Tell Nyong’o that too. Let him focus on his impending retirement,” Alai said.

Notably, lawmakers from Raila’s ethnic base have been the most receptive to the idea of a working arrangement with the government. But the nomination of former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s allies to Ruto’s Cabinet has unsettled some within ODM. The appointment of Mutahi Kagwe (Agriculture), Lee Kinyanjui (Investment, Trade and Industry), and William Kabogo (ICT) as Cabinet Secretaries prompted backlash.

“President Ruto’s reconstituted Cabinet had gender, ethnic, and regional balance until former President Uhuru Kenyatta was given slots to distribute among Jubilee members… In upholding the Constitution, I will mobilise MPs to reject them,” said Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma.

Ruto appears to have equal opposition and support within ODM. Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, the party’s Secretary General, has consistently maintained that ODM will independently hold the government accountable. He recently chastised former ODM colleagues now serving as ministers, accusing Mbadi of snubbing Senate invitations.

“Honourable John Mbadi should be called to order. This is not the John Mbadi I knew; I don’t know what they’ve done to him. He used to respect Parliament,” Sifuna remarked.

Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka, another vocal critic of the government, recently refused an invitation to Ruto’s New Year dinner at Kisii State Lodge.

“I have a strong conviction that the president has fallen short of his Oath of Office. He should obey, preserve, protect, and uphold the sovereignty, integrity, and dignity of the people of Kenya,” Onyonka said in response to ongoing abductions.

Saboti MP Caleb Amisi also spoke out against the government, stating that he was one of the few in ODM willing to publicly call out the President. Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, who has consistently opposed the arrangement between Ruto and Raila, argued that it undermines the interests of the people.

In November, a gag order from Junet left many within ODM confused about how to engage with the President in light of the truce with Raila.

“I have been instructed by the party leadership to inform you that we are still and remain the Minority party in Parliament. In light of that, you are hereby requested to engage with me and the parliamentary leadership of both Houses whenever you participate in political matters outside the party,” Junet had stated.

This internal conflict has left ODM members divided, with some questioning whether their party should continue to engage with Ruto’s administration or return to a more traditional opposition role.