Musalia Mudavadi and Kalonzo Musyoka causing tension in new political unions

Their separate entry to Deputy President William Ruto and ODM leader’s Raila Odinga’s political camps was no doubt a most welcome gesture. The move, however, seems a double-edged sword for Ruto and Raila as political tension heightens in their camps over the demands and placement of former vice-presidents Musalia Mudavadi and Kalonzo Musyoka.

Unlike Mudavadi, who teamed up with Ruto during the National Delegates’ Conference (NDC) of the Amani National Congress (ANC) on January 23rd and hit the ground running with joint rallies three days later, Kalonzo’s political marriage with Raila last Saturday has been marked by suspicions, dissatisfaction and a series of fresh demands by the Wiper party leader. Mudavadi may similarly be having his share of misgivings in his political marriage with Ruto, the only difference being that his lieutenants, led by Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala are doing the bidding for him as opposed to Kalonzo, who has been personally expressing his misgivings in public rallies and through television and radio interviews.

Over the last seven days, Kalonzo has stated much, including disclosure of a dispute over the correct wording of the coalition, which he says is “Azimio-One Kenya Alliance” and not “Azimio La Umoja”. Kalonzo says this is a “very serious” issue for which he can rethink his association with Raila. At some point he also called on his supporters to accord him the necessary numbers in Parliament to enable him impeach his partner Raila, “in the event he backtracks on our pact”.

Kalonzo’s move has doubtlessly caused restlessness, and even rage, among politicians allied to the Azimio Movement and their supporters. Reached for comment, though, most politicians declined to respond or delve deeper into the matter. Deputy party leader of Democratic Party of Action-Kenya (DAP-K), Ayub Savula, for instance, stated that the Kalonzo matter was a hot potato which he did not wish to touch: “We are better off ignoring this one, since our eyes are fixed on the ball”.  

“I know he is probably doing this to woo his political constituency in Ukambani, but what he does not know is that he is doing so at the expense of the larger Azimio family which stretches across the entire country. His actions have particularly angered Raila’s political backyards of Nairobi and Nyanza region,” opened up a second-term MP from Nyanza, who declined to be named for fear of being accused of fueling a rift with the Azimio Movement.

Speaking on Citizen TV on Friday, Kalonzo maintained that he was committed to his support for Raila’s presidential bid. Nonetheless, he stressed, there were teething issues that he was obligated to tell Kenyans. Yesterday, Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua concurred with his party leaders’ position, claiming that the former VP was only setting the ground rules for the main game ahead: “The things that my party leader has said over the last one week are simple statements of fact. Who is not comfortable with these facts? Returning political hygiene at the very top of our leadership will cause some bit of discomfort, but it must be done.”

War of words

Ruto’s camp is not sitting pretty either – thanks to a bitter war of words over the running mate ignited by Kakamega Senator, Cleophas Malala. Arguing that Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party cannot claim both the presidential and running mate slot in an arrangement with ANC and Ford-Kenya, under KKA, the vocal legislator wants Musalia’s position in the coalition secured.

Malala’s push follows the claim by Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua early this month to the effect that the Number Two slot is reserved for the populous Mount Kenya region. Rigathi is a crucial player in Ruto’s camp, whose sentiments cannot be easily wished away, same as Malala who has emerged as Mudavadi’s Mr Fix-It, and who reportedly played an active role in the ANC leader’s merger with the DP. But owing to the latest developments, where over six parties whose leaders hail from the Mount Kenya region have teamed up with Ruto, Malala’s argument may as well collapse. In joining KKA, non-UDA party leaders such as former Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mwangi Kiunjuri (The Service Party) former Kiambu governor, William Kabogo (Tujibebe Wakenya), Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria (Chama Cha Kazi) and Jimmi Wanjigi (Safina), among others, could now offer competition to the ANC leader’s claim to the running mate’s slot.     

The frictions caused by Kalonzo and Musalia in the Raila and Ruto camps notwithstanding, former Kakamega Senator Dr Bonny Khalwale points out that the entry “has no doubt boosted energies in the two presidential bids”.  According to Khalwale, what remains in doubt is the effect it has on the other five ballots of Governor, Senate, Woman Representative, MP and Member of the County Assembly (MCA).

Kalonzo and Musalia, who have separately served as vice presidents and unsuccessfully vied for the presidency, once, were initially operating under the One Kenya Alliance (OKA) roof until Musalia bolted out in January. Both nursed the ambition of vying for the presidency, but by separately joining Raila and Ruto, the two have ultimately forfeited their ambitions – at least for now.

And it is this reality that is partly responsible for the anxiety within their voter-bases in Ukambani and Western Kenya regions. Admittedly, part of this anxiety and expectations have spilt into the coalitions they are currently trying to build.

“In life there is always the principle of cause and effect, and when it was decided that we open up our UDA political outfit from a party to a coalition, we thought it would add value. However, this remains a matter of debate,” concedes Dr Khalwale.

Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) Secretary-General, Dr Eseli Simiyu, concurs: “Kalonzo, for instance, is one of the main principals in my coalition and it is regrettable that he is prevaricating, which is not good for our campaign. I honestly do not know what he intends to achieve by this?” he says.

Equating his latest actions and sentiments to “holding the people at ransom”, the Tongaren MP advises the Azimio fraternity to go on with “our thing” with or without the former VP: “I must confess that Kalonzo is a politician that I have never understood, and even after working closely with him for 15 years in Parliament and within same coalitions, I cannot even begin to pretend that I understand him.”

On his part, however, Wambua calls on his colleagues in Azimio to focus on the big picture, which is campaigning for Raila to be President on August 9: “If you check your records, you will realise that my party leader hit the ground running immediately after the Saturday Azimio-OKA signing ceremony. On Sunday he was at his home in Tseikuru, Kitui County. On Monday he addressed three rallies in Tharaka Nithi County. In both counties, he was on a mission to campaign for Raila’s presidency. Why isn’t this a big deal for Kenyans and the media?”

Dr Eseli similarly downplays the challenges ahead stating that he understands the coalition dynamics better having spent his parliamentary life in coalitions. The former Secretary-General of Ford-Kenya, who recently defected to DAP-K in the same capacity, warns that the only challenge inherent in coalitions is sibling rivalry: “We cannot start fighting this early and lose sight of the bigger prize. In coalitions, sibling rivalry never ends as it extends to Parliament for the rest of its life. The only solution is to strike commonality and discard negative energy, such as what we are currently witnessing.”

But even as the main coalitions try to address the burning issue of competing interests, the next phase of party primaries is likely to further add fuel to the already burning fire. Whether nominees will be identified through consensus, by compromise, delegates’ vote or universal suffrage, the exercise will be a make or break affair for Ruto and Raila. What is worse is that the existing coalitions are even yet to establish independent election boards.