President pays price of populism as he struggles with tax, truth and trust

President William Ruto. [File, Standard]

The tendency for presidents to lose their popularity shortly after winning an election is a well-documented phenomenon in political history. In 1973, John Mueller famously remarked that the best way for a president to leave office as a beloved leader is to resign the day after their inauguration.

This pattern holds true in Kenya, as it does in many other democracies. A quick Google search will show that President Mwai Kibaki is often ranked as the most popular leader in Kenya’s post-independence history. Yet, those who recall the dramatic political events following his swearing-in on Monday, December 30, 2002, at 11a.m., will also remember the disillusionment that led many Kenyans back to the streets, chanting “Yote yawezekana bila Kibaki!”

Ironically, the same slogan had been directed at President Daniel Moi during the election campaigns to reject his ‘politically inexperienced project’, Uhuru Kenyatta. Despite early setbacks, including the stain of the 2007 post-election violence, Kibaki managed to redeem his reputation. His administration’s notable economic achievements eventually endeared him to many Kenyans.

From this perspective, it is not entirely surprising that President William Ruto might lose favour with Kenyans after riding into power on the populist ‘hustler vs dynasties’ wave. However, his challenge appears to be more systemic than random, as opposition is emerging even from his core voting base. The president’s recent attempt to spiritualise his declining popularity highlights his failure to grasp the magnitude of his disconnect with Kenyans. Suggesting that critics of his policies lack foresight, are uninformed, or are ‘washamba’ is not only tone-deaf but arguably unbecoming of a public leader. Unsurprisingly, his remarks sparked swift and fierce backlash on social media.

From an analytical standpoint, the president’s greatest political asset—his undeniable gift of eloquence—has ironically become his greatest liability in office. In a 2013 article published in the African Review, Alexander B. Makulilo examines the trajectories of African presidents who rose to power on populist agendas. He highlights the cases of Jakaya Kikwete of Tanzania, Frederick Chiluba of Zambia and Jacob Zuma of South Africa, all of whom ultimately became systemic failures after their election.

Radical transformation

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Makulilo argues that populism thrives on radicalisation, often rooted in anti-establishment sentiment. Populist leaders campaign on promises of radical transformation aimed at improving the lives of the people. However, once in office, they often perpetuate the very vices they condemned. This paradox arises because the same crises—economic, leadership or otherwise—that fuel populist movements are also the ones that undermine their governance.

Turning to President Ruto’s current troubles, one cannot overlook the hubris that characterised his first 20 months in office. During this period of apparent triumph, he not only exuded an image of invincibility on the domestic front but also styled himself as a modern-day heir to the Pan-Africanist legacy of greats like Nelson Mandela, Kwame Nkrumah, Patrice Lumumba and Julius Nyerere.

Consider, for example, his proclamation during the Madaraka Day celebrations in Embu on June 1, 2023, that ‘Zakayo’ was just a name that could not deter him from executing his agenda for the nation. Who could have imagined that, exactly a year later, he would face his most testing political challenge—one stemming from an unexpected quarter: the Gen-Zs?

Patrick Gathara, in a July 14 opinion piece for Al Jazeera, argues that President Ruto is grappling with the consequences of mistaking a parliamentary majority for popular legitimacy. Additionally, his reliance on old-fashioned political strategies, such as forming broad-based alliances, fails to account for the shifting generational dynamics and evolving priorities of the electorate.

In today’s political climate, co-opting opposition leaders with tokenistic government appointments no longer guarantees control over their voter bases. To many young voters—the majority of whom will form the key voting bloc in 2027—these older politicians symbolise everything wrong with the country’s leadership.

Dishing out political appointments at the top does little to address their pressing issues of unemployment, lack of meaningful economic opportunities, an oppressive tax burden without accountability and the added ‘black tax’ of supporting families due to failed government policies. For them, the administration’s actions appear to exploit their struggles as a means to secure state power for personal enrichment.

As we approach the end-of-year festive season, it would be prudent for President Ruto to retreat and reflect deeply on how his administration arrived at the difficult position it currently faces. The challenges confronting his leadership are not spiritual; rather, they reflect the nation’s collective mood and serve as clear feedback on his fiscal policies and development priorities.

From this perspective, three critical factors will likely shape the future of his administration—or ultimately determine the fate of his presidency.

The first factor is the growing shift away from campaign bribery and tokenism, particularly with religious leaders. It must have been a huge shock for President Ruto to witness clergy publicly rejecting his generous donations to the church. This marked a stark departure from his past strategy of building political influence by making large public contributions to churches and handing out brown envelopes to clergymen who frequented his Karen residence during his tenure as Deputy President and the early months of his presidency.

Source of money

What remains unclear is the source of the millions of shillings he distributes liberally.

The second factor is the pervasive culture of political dishonesty that President Ruto has come to embody. In today’s digital era, sustaining public lies has become nearly impossible. Advances in technology make it easy to capture and archive evidence of any public utterance. If individuals can document casual family discussions at the dinner table for future reference, how much easier is it to record public statements made by elected officials?

It is troubling when top leaders are seen as the face of deception. It is likely that the religious community is concerned about the long-term consequences of such dishonesty on spiritual teachings.

Finally, the issue of excessive taxes and the perceived plunder of public coffers by top officials in the Kenya Kwanza administration looms large. Direct taxes sting the pockets of workers, entrepreneurs and investors, while also reducing the disposable income of consumers. The combined effect is to squeeze household budgets, diminishing livelihoods, lifestyle choices and business activity.

It is clear that workers will punish the president for raiding their paychecks through the unpopular Housing Levy and health insurance deductions. Moreover, most voters suspect that either the president, his close family members or his associates are behind the shady, Adani-like deals. The situation is made worse by the president’s double-speak on the matter, as seen in his remarks this past week!