Will Kenya Gen Z persuade African leaders to reject Raila's AUC bid?

If President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga ’s posts on social media are to be believed, the former premier ‘s bid for the African Union Commission chairperson position is getting widespread continental support.

On the sidelines of Ghanaian President John Dramani Mahama’s inauguration last Tuesday, Ruto met several leaders and championed Raila’s candidacy.

On his part, the former Prime Minister has been to Mauritius, where he met Prime Minister, Navinchandra Ramgoolam. By securing endorsements from the continent’s heads, its seems Raila’s victory is within reach.

The opposition veteran has previously stated that  a win for him would benefit Kenya, a position shared by many of those who support him. Not everyone buys this assertion. On social media, scores of young Kenyans want Raila far away from the AUC position.

It has everything to do with Raila’s and Ruto’s truce and the general feeling of betrayal that has lingered since last July when the pair partnered up to form what they call a “broad-based government”.

During last year’s youth-led revolt against proposed tax hikes, many implored the former premier to sit out the protests that brought Ruto’s government to its knees. Raila initially agreed to do so but later met the President and agreed to a partnership that he often denies exists.

Five of his allies – Cabinet Secretaries John Mbadi (Treasury), Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives), Hassan Joho (Mining) and Beatrice Askul (East African Community) -  joined the government and have since been singing Ruto’s praise songs.

A looming purge that could see the majority of principal secretaries axed to make way for allies of Raila and former President Uhuru Kenyatta further contradicts Raila’s insistence that no deal exists between his ODM party and Ruto.

Many of the Gen Z protesters have branded the former prime minister a traitor, now more so given the alarming rate of alleged State-sanctioned abductions of government critics.

The abductions have been extended to foreigners, such as Uganda’s opposition politician Kizza Besigye, who was kidnapped in Nairobi last November by persons believed to be State security operatives.

Raila’s loyalists insist that their boss did not betray the Gen Z as he was never part of their movement, which the youthful Kenyans had branded “leaderless”.

On social media, Raila’s bid faces immense criticism, with many saying they support Djibouti’s candidate, Foreign Affairs Minister Mahamoud Youssouf. Some call the Djiboutian “Kenya’s candidate”.

Prayers for loss

Many others support the former premier’s bid, but it has often seemed as though his detractors were the majority. The former premier’s critics were excited about a post on X by South African journalist Sophie Mokoena, questioning why the AUC should consider Raila despite the Kenya government’s  apparent disregard for human rights.

“You are campaigning for the position of the AU Commission Chair. Why must Africa consider you when your country can’t provide answers on the abduction cases in Kenya? You want to lead the continent when you are failing to lead in your own country,” Mokoena stated.

Her post raised the question of whether Raila could fall victim to the State’s blunders because of his association with Ruto. It is already costing him his support among many Kenyans, who hope that their prayers for a Raila loss will land on the ears of Africa’s heads, who will vote in the AUC elections.

Whether their opinion matters remains to be seen when Raila faces Youssouf and former Madagascar Foreign Minister Richard James Randriamandrato next month. What is sure is that the young activists are getting noticed.

Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi, an international relations expert, argued that the cries on social media may “matter little” to Africa’s leaders.

“What may matter more are issues touching on international interests such as capitalism and socialism. For instance, if BRICS countries support Raila then pro-capitalism ones may tilt the other way,” said Mwangangi, who acknowledged that domestic issues may have a bearing on the vote.

“The abductions and protests over human rights violations have reduced Kenya’s standing on the global stage. Raila is known to fight for human rights. He is seen as a Pan-African liberator. Ruto’s government is associated with massive corruption and enforced disappearances,” he added, saying such perceptions may be shifted to Kenya’s candidate.

“I wish Raila’s candidacy was supported by the nation and not Kenya Kwanza leaders,” said Mwangangi.

University professor of History and International Relations Macharia Munene concurred, saying Kenya has acquired a negative image in recent months, which is likely to be a factor in the AUC polls.

“The news coming out of Kenya has not been favourable. If Kenyans have no faith in Kenya, can other leaders trust Kenya with the position?” Prof Munene posed, saying the continent’s heads will vote mainly based on individual interests.

“Every leader is thinking about three factors that will determine their vote: Their relationship with Ruto and whether he is a reliable man, what they think of Kenya as a country and what they know and think of Raila. Some think Raila is a great man and others harbour concerns about him,” he added.

In a recent article in a local daily, Mikhail Nyamweya, who regularly contributes on African politics, also argued that Kenya’s domestic situation, characterized by persistent protests, could affect Raila’s bid.

“These internal tensions raise an important question: Can Kenya, a country grappling with domestic fractures, credibly position itself as a champion of pan-African unity?” Nyamweya posed.

Rule of law

Many of the continent’s countries do not have the best human rights records, often featuring among civic rights abusers. Africa’s leaders are mostly known for their strong-arm tactics and intolerance for dissent.

“Those part of the corrupt club may not mind but there are many others who do. Some countries value respect for the rule of law and protect human rights. Going forward, we will see more transformation and one day we will reach a point where ideas will count in elections and not just the amount of money one can raise,” said Mwangangi.

Prof Munene argued that some corrupt leaders may want to dissociate themselves from Kenya as they would “like to imagine they are cleaner.”

“Kenya’s president was recently ranked as the second most corrupt leader in the world and that may not augur well with some. Indeed, not all of the leaders will care, quite a number will sympathise with the government because they are not innocent themselves, but a substantial number would want to interrogate these factors,” said the university don.

He agreed with Mwangangi’s view that the continent is experiencing an awakening, with citizens demanding better leadership.

“During Mahama’s swearing-in, the Burkinabe President Ibrahim Traore was cheered by citizens who kept silent when others were introduced. The cheering of Traore is a message. The silence was also a message,” added Prof Munene.

Ruto’s diplomatic blunders could also hurt Raila’s chances, as argued by former Trade Minister Mukhisa Kituyi during a recent interview.

“At a time when Kenya is presenting a candidate, who would otherwise be a very credible candidate, to be the chair of the African Union Commission, the President of Kenya becomes the first and only African leader who starts expressing solidarity with Israel in its genocidal invasion of Gaza… to a lot of people, he shows he does not know what he is talking about,” said Kituyi. “When you are fielding Raila for the African Union, do you know you have 19 Muslim-majority countries in the African Union?”

But Ruto has also proven to be a charmer, earning standing ovations when he speaks on continental stages. The President, recently elected to head reforms in the AU, has also shown strength in gathering African leaders in events held in Kenya.