Will Raila Odinga's ODM stand with Ruto or back its own?

Opposition leader Raila Odinga’s ODM party is caught between a rock and a hard place, as party members are torn between backing President William Ruto’s re-election and launching their own bid for the presidency.

The Standard has established that mixed signals from key party stalwarts have led to a state of anxiety within the party.

In recent weeks, senior party leaders have thrown their weight behind Ruto’s re-election, even as some claim the party risks diluting its own support in key bases by backing the Kenya Kwanza leader.

On Friday, former ODM chairman and Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi became the latest ODM insider to back Ruto’s re-election.

On the other hand, other party members, led by party chairperson, Gladys Wanga, have maintained that the party is preparing for the 2027 presidential race.

“Ruto and the entire Rift Valley supported us in 2007. It is only fair for us to support him as a community in the next General Election,” Mbadi said.

According to Mbadi, Raila’s supporters should reject other candidates and back Ruto.

This comes as political activities and  early campaigns intensify across the country.

Speaking at Kitawa Primary School in Suba South Constituency, where he presided over a fundraiser for the Kobunda Professionals’ Association (which helps pay school fees for vulnerable students), Mbadi urged Nyanza residents to reject other presidential candidates and support Ruto.

“Let us ignore any presidential candidate if Raila is not contesting and instead support President Ruto as a region,” Mbadi said.

He argued that Ruto had also supported Raila in 2007 to become Prime Minister.

Ruto’s candidacy in the election is explicit, as he has already declared it.

Mbadi stated that he would only face difficulty choosing who to vote for if Raila and Ruto both contest the presidency in 2027.

“I will only face difficulties in choosing who to support if both Raila and Ruto vie for the presidency in 2027,” Mbadi said.

Mbadi was also installed by the area elders, led by their chairman Martin Ogayo, as their spokesman in national politics.

“We want Mbadi to be our spokesman and give us direction on national politics,” Ogayo said.

After the installation, Mbadi urged Nyanza residents to continue supporting the broad-based government. He expressed optimism about the country’s economy.

“The economy is on the right trajectory, even though the middle class still complains that they lack money due to taxation. We will address this issue to improve their situation as well,” Mbadi said.

Wanga stated that ODM is  strengthening its party to capture power in 2027.

“Our objective as a political party is to capture power, which is the goal of any political party.

‘‘That is why we have started grassroots elections to make the party stronger and achieve our objective,” Wanga said.

The Homa Bay Governor said the party may form a coalition with other political parties, but that would be discussed later.

“Our current priority is strengthening ODM to the point where we can capture power. Any discussions about forming a coalition can come later; it is not our priority at the moment,” Wanga said.

During his recent visit to Homa Bay County, ODM deputy party leader Simba Arati argued that ODM must form a government in 2027.

“We donated our members to serve in the Cabinet, but let everyone know that ODM will form the next government,” Arati said.

Rangwe MP Lilian Gogo said Raila will guide the people of Nyanza on where to direct their support during the 2027 electioneering period.

“Our party leader is here, and he will provide direction on where we should support when the electioneering period arrives.

‘‘He has always done so before, and I believe he will do it again. Let us cross the bridge when we reach the river,” Dr Gogo said. Gogo said Raila should not be ruled out of the presidential race in Kenya. She explained that there is no law barring Raila from vying for the presidency in 2027, even if he becomes the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson.

“There is no law in Kenya that bars anyone who has been AUC chairman from running for the presidency. Our party leader can become the AUC chairperson and run for the presidency if he wishes,” she said.

Gwassi North MP Philip Ongeri urged Nyanza residents to unite in order to chart their political future for development.

“Let us unite as the people of this region to ensure we receive the development from the government,” Ongeri said.

The recent turn of events is expected to lead to a paradigm shift in Nyanza politics ahead of the 2027 General Election.

Political Strategist Mark Bichachi argues that there are high chances that Raila will not be on the ballot.

“Raila is going to the AUC that’s a fact, when he leaves there is no chance that he will be on the ballot in 2027,” Bichachi said.