Fight, flight or resign? Gachagua's thinning options weighed

Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s mind seems made up. He is not going down without a fight.

Noting Gachagua’s goose is cooked in Parliament, most observers reason that the DP is better off resigning from office as it would preserve any political ambitions he may have. 

Indeed, the overwhelming support of Gachagua’s impeachment motion by Members of Parliament, 291 of whom signed up to begin the process of sending him home, shows that defeating the ouster motion borders on impossible.

And it bears significant implications to Gachagua’s ambitions, given he will not be eligible to hold elective office if impeached by the bicameral Parliament.

“Resigning will immunise him from being barred from holding public office in future. This option allows him to reflect and grow political capital for 2027 or prepare for a career elsewhere outside politics,” noted political risk analyst Dismas Mokua. He said that Gachagua could also mount a fight in Parliament. That seems like an insurmountable task at the National Assembly, but the DP could try out his chances at the Senate, which will be the trial chamber.

 “DP Gachagua can use this path if he can influence and secure the support of majority members in the two houses,” added Mokua.

Gachagua seems to favour this option and is already mobilising to defeat the motion, tabled in the National Assembly by Kibwezi West MP Mwengi Mutuse. Part of the strategy involves rallying the masses against the impeachment.

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In recent days, the DP has heightened his public appearances and has been interviewed by different sections of the press. He is also banking on an aggressive social media campaign against his ouster. Among his tools include video clip circulated yesterday that urged Kenyans to attend public participation exercises near them. The clip describes Gachagua as a “truthful man” and “darling of the masses”, highlighting the DP’s work over the last two years.

“Fellow Kenyan, it is time to be patriotic. Stand with Riggy G this Friday (today),” the voice over announces.

Leaving his fate in the hands of lawmakers is a gamble and the DP knows as much. On Wednesday, the DP filed a case in court challenging his ouster, highlighting several violations of the impeachment process, which include alleged insufficient public participation and raises questions on the threshold of such a move.

“Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo believes that Gachagua stands a fighting chance in court. 

“The only ground that is valid in the impeachment motion is that he did not share his office’s confidential vote with MPs. There is nothing provable in that frivolous motion,” said Maanzo.

His Wiper party said it opposed the impeachment, despite some of its members signing the motion tabled on Tuesday.

“My view is that kufa dereva, kufa makanga. Impeach them both,” added Maanzo.

Mokua said that the court route could prove effective if lawmakers sink the DP as it “will buy him time till 2027 because the matter will drag for months on end till the Supreme Court.”

There is the option of mending fences with President William Ruto, which Maanzo finds viable. But the train seems to have left the station for the pair, whose differences appear irreconcilable. Mokua argued that the prospects of that happening are slim given the toxic political environment.