Raila Odinga's last bullet down to positive ruling in court, win in repeat poll

With the electoral body's declaration of William Samoei Ruto as President-Elect, two arduous hurdles now stand in the way of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga's quest for the country's top political seat - a positive Supreme Court ruling voiding Ruto's election and victory in a subsequent repeat poll.

And except for indications that Azimio will be challenging Ruto's win at the Supreme Court, which Raila himself pointed to on Tuesday during his speech at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre (KICC), on August 20, the Azimio brigade was tight-lipped on the former premier's next plan of action. Most of those polled by The Sunday Standard exuded confidence in Raila overturning the tables at the SCK.

However, the leadership of Azimio declined to engage in detail on Raila's post poll scheme. The coalition party's Executive Director and ex-Cabinet Secretary, Raphael Tuju, for instance, opted to stay mum. He similarly did not respond to our phone text messages on the same.

Reached for comment, John Mbadi, who is the National Chairman of Raila's parent party, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), was similarly evasive stating, "I am sorry, I do not think this is the right time to address such a topic".

The age factor

The caginess of Raila's pointmen is indeed understandable because he is now staring at the proverbial last bullet that he has repeatedly referred to over the last seven years. At 77, age is not on his side and it is unlikely that he will bounce back in elective politics if he misses out on the current opportunity. The second and third presidents, Daniel arap Moi and Mwai Kibaki, for instance, exited the political scene at 78 and 82 respectively.

Presently, a legal avenue presents a most plausible opportunity for Raila's bounce back. Either way, will a Supreme Court ruling ultimately signal the end of Raila's political career or will he manoeuvre around it to reinvent himself politically as he has done over the last three decades?

Supporters of the Azimio La Umoja - One Kenya presidential candidate are optimistic that the Chief Justice Martha Koome-led team could rejuvenate Raila's political career by giving him a second chance at the ballot. Claiming the August 9th poll was a highly polluted exercise, Narok County Senator-elect, Olekina Ledama, hopes the apex court will nullify Ruto's win.

"Going by a precedent set in 2017 by (CJ David) Maraga, the Supreme Court has no alternative but void this poll because it is dirtier, messy and the numbers do not just add up," says the vocal legislator.

When they voided President Uhuru Kenyatta's re-election in 2017, the Raila-led National Super Alliance (NASA) team, consisting of running mate, Kalonzo Musyoka and Musalia Mudavadi, as well as Moses Wetangula, however declined to participate in the repeat poll citing lack of a level-playing ground. During the last poll, Raila's supporters opted to swear him in as the People's President at Nairobi's Uhuru Park, after he opted out of the repeat poll.

Article 141 of the Constitution on Assumption of Office of the President is, however, clear that only a presidential candidate declared by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) as validly elected can take oath of office administered in public by the Chief Justice or Deputy Chief Justice. According to insiders within Azimio, Raila is unlikely to take this route this time around with allies exuding confidence that he will get a favourable ruling at the SCK "owing to the strength of our case".

Concurring that the irregularities and illegalities in this year's poll "is probably more glaring and disruptive of the eventual outcome", Dr Henry Wabwire, opines that a second chances accorded to Raila at the bal http://dcx/device_sg/preview/2022/08-18/62/e2/file7md06otde7mi14fb6r6.jpg lot "is like handing him a sword with which to either injure his rivals or harm himself".

Noting that he will be coming up against a very strong competitor, Ruto, "who will take the opportunity to portray him as unelectable or simply jinxed", the political affairs commentator observers that a nod by the SCK is not a guarantee for a Raila victory. Yet still, says Dr Wabwire, "Raila can turn the tables on Ruto by portraying him as a beneficiary of poll theft".

Raila will accordingly get his numbers back and a possible victory beckoning, "just by reassuring voters that stringent measures are now in place to guard against poll theft".

This view is supported by outgoing Murang'a County MP, Sabina Chege, who believes that Raila "actually won this poll", and that he would still emerge victor in a free and fair contest. The views by Sabina - a later day diehard supporter of Raila - mirror on the thinking of most of the Azimio leader's backers whose political hopes are largely pegged on a legal interpretation and ruling on the current impasse.

But yesterday Ford-Kenya party leader, Moses Wetang'ula, a principal partner in the Ruto-led Kenya Kwanza Alliance, poked fun at the ODM leader. He claimed that with the company of, and reliance on, advice from Central Organisation of Trade Union's Secretary General, Francis Atwoli, "Raila was destined for failure in his presidential bid".

According to Wetang'ula, who previously teamed up with Raila in the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) and National Super Alliance (NASA) during the 2013 and 2017 polls, "Raila's prime time in politics is over" and that he is best advised to retire honourable "in order to save himself from more political humiliation".

Raila could actually also take the current developments in his stride by playing the statesman, including embracing international opportunities at the global stage. Owing to networks built over the decades in his political, Raila who is credited for being a Pan-Africanist, has held a couple of positions on the Continent since assuming the position of Kenya's second Prime Minister in 2008. By the time of making his fifth stab at the presidency, for instance, he was African Union's High Representative for Infrastructure Development on the continent.

The former PM, a general of the trenches and crusader of civil and human rights, could also settle for a boardroom solution, only that Dr Ruto does not appear enthusiastic. During his last campaign rally at Nairobi's Moi Kasarani Sports Complex, Raila actually implied to this possibility when he pledged to continue with the handshake spirit.

"I want to assure Kenyans that I will continue with this handshake doctrine, the doctrine of unclenching the fist. For the sake of Kenya, I will shake the hand of my rivals if I win and I will shake their hand if I don't. And I will do it because I love Kenya more than I love Raila Amolo," reiterated the Azimio candidate.

But in a quick rejoinder, Ruto turned down the handshake offer maintaining he would not participate "in anything that brings confusion between separation of power and accountability of the Government."

Man of handshakes

Raila has over the years exchanged handshakes with bitter political rivals, including the second and third presidents, Daniel arap Moi and Mwai Kibaki, as well as outgoing President, Uhuru Kenyatta. The handshakes are generally a gesture of peace aimed at unifying the country after a highly polarized poll exercise. The highly discredited and disputed 2007 poll, for instance, led to the loss of over 1,000 lives and massive loss of property. The handshake between Kibaki and Raila, through structured peace talks led by former United Nations Secretary-General Dr Kofi Annan immediately, restored calm, leading to formation of a Grand Coalition Government.

Ideally in Raila's instance, it is not over until it is over. Like the proverbial cat with nine lives, he has over the years demonstrated his political resilience and acrobatics and bounced back even in situations where many had already written his political obituary. This was precisely the scenario after the 1997, 2007, and 2017 presidential polls, when he teamed up with Moi and was rewarded with the position of Secretary General of Kanu following a merger with his National Development Party and in 2007 when he and Kibaki formed the Grand Coalition Government, and finally as a friend of the Jubilee administration following the 2017 handshake with Uhuru.

Meanwhile, Raila still has unfinished political business and this is certainly not the time for him to exit the political scene. In fact such a move could precipitate political confusion within his ODM party and the 26-member Azimio coalition. It could mostly usher in an explosive phase of his succession on the national stage and in Luo Nyanza region. While he has singled out his deputies in ODM, outgoing Kakamega and Mombasa governors, Wycliffe Oparanya and Hassan Joho, as successors in his party, Raila is yet to groom a political successor in his Nyanza backyard.

Local pundits view seasoned politician James Orengo and former Nairobi Governor Dr Evans Kidero, as the leading contenders of Raila succession: "Ideally, Orengo and Kidero were hoping to use their Siaya and Homa bay governorship as stepping stones to Luo leadership," observes Dr Oketch Okumu.