Kalonzo: The last man standing in Opposition, but for how long?

 Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka addresses the Press in Nairobi on December 8. 2024. [Collins Oduor, Standard]

For some months now, former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka has called himself the “leader of the people’s loyal opposition.”

Since his longtime ally, former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, partnered with President William Ruto, turning from critic to government defender, Kalonzo has kept pressure on the Kenya Kwanza administration.

The Wiper leader has criticised Ruto for his controversial policies. He is currently on the President’s neck for the controversial vaccination of livestock project.

As the political elite regroup to counter growing public dissent, Kalonzo seems immune to the coalition flu that former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila recently caught.

The former vice president is yet to join Ruto’s broad-based government that has crippled the Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya three-legged stool.

Raila was the first to jump ship, donating his allies to Ruto’s Cabinet. On Friday, Uhuru followed suit, with two of his allies, former Health Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe and former Nakuru Governor Lee Kinyanjui, nominated to Cabinet, alongside former Kiambu Governor William Kabogo, a Ruto ally in the 2022 polls.

Raila’s and Uhuru’s parties, the Orange Democratic Movement and Jubilee, respectively, have insisted that they were still in the opposition. But ODM’s actions, such as supporting the government’s positions, have spoken louder than words.

With the two gone, the opposition’s Azimio coalition, which has stood on ODM’s, Jubilee’s and Wiper’s legs, remains only with Wiper and Kalonzo as its last man standing among the prominent principals. While the coalition had other principals, they did not hold as much sway as the trio.

Kalonzo seems to have planned this moment months ago. As the faces of the new coalition lined up for a photograph at the Kenyatta International Conference in July, Kalonzo seemingly sneaked out after witnessing the signing of new election laws.

He would later say that he was not interested in any coalition with Ruto. At the time, the Head of State’s popularity was perhaps the lowest it had ever been. A youth-led revolt over tax-hike proposals left the Kenya Kwanza administration reeling and in desperate need of support.

Keen to side with the distraught masses, Kalonzo avoided Ruto as his ally Raila offered help. The Sunday Standard has learnt that Ruto has not approached Kalonzo to join his government, but it is unlikely that he would even if he was offered the chance.

“He has not been approached and he is not interested. The people call the government ‘bread-based’ and they have warned Kalonzo that he should avoid it like a plague. As a good leader, he is listening to the people,” said Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi, a member of Wiper

Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo concurs.

“They have not approached Kalonzo because they despise us and they know we cannot join a dead government. Every time Ruto’s government  kidnaps innocent Kenyans, they gain nothing. They only lose the people,” said Maanzo.

Kalonzo’s decision to distance himself from Ruto has everything to do with his political ambitions. The former vice president hopes to ascend to the presidency in 2027 and has previously supported Raila hoping that the former premier would return the favour.

After coming third in the 2007 polls, Kalonzo was twice Raila’s running mate (in 2013 and 2017), before he was dropped in 2022. He still supported the former prime minister for the presidency.

Kalonzo is also believed to be angling for the leader of the opposition position, which is a proposal from talks between Ruto and Raila through the National Dialogue Committee.

“It makes a lot of sense for Kalonzo to avoid Ruto. He is the last visible prominent opposition politician criticising the government. Others have folded their tents and joined Ruto. Avoiding Ruto will show that he is consistent but he must improve on his ability to criticise the government as he still seems weak,”said Macharia Munene, a professor of history and international relations.

Prof Munene argues that Kalonzo had the chance to stand out from the crowd, just like businessman-cum-politician Jimi Wanjigi, Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, among others.

Mwangangi agrees, stating that the problems in Kenya Kwanza were too big to be wished away.

“The broad-based government appears to belong to two or three communities and it is an elitist club formed by a person who promised to do away with the dynasties and prioritise the common mwananchi. Kenyans have a problem with Kenya Kwanza’s policies and with the President for his lies. The people have lost all trust in Ruto,” said Mwangangi.

Maanzo said Kenya Kwanza had disenfranchised the masses.

“Kenyans are annoyed and cannot wait to send them home. That is why they want the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission constituted as soon as yesterday,” said the senator.

Kalonzo is not walking his opposition journey alone.

Former Defence Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa, Kalonzo’s prospective running mate, and Jubilee Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni are among the opposition’s most vocal voices.

Recently, they were joined by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, impeached after falling out with Ruto. Kalonzo had rallied his Wiper troops to mount a futile opposition to the impeachment motion that sailed through decisively.

For his efforts, Gachagua recently hinted at a coalition between himself and Kalonzo, which observers say would be formidable.

“That is a 14 million-strong coalition that will hit 50 per cent plus one vote of whatever the numbers will be. The people saw how Gachagua was mistreated and they are with him,” said Maanzo. The Sunday Standard could not immediately verify the figure he put out.

Mwangangi argued that 2027 was not about individuals but an agenda to rid the nation of Ruto’s policies.

“Like-minded leaders will come together to save their country,” he said.

Prof Munene said Gachagua’s support would boost Kalonzo’s election bid, but argued that Gachagua would be more powerful if he did not feature on the ticket. Gachagua’s impeachment means that he cannot seek elective office unless the courts overturn his ouster.

“Since he took office, Gachagua has seemed more interested in being the king in Mt Kenya, although Mt Kenya has no kings. He appears to be more acceptable now than before. But I don’t think the two will run as part of one ticket. It is in Gachagua’s interest that he endorses Kalonzo and takes a back seat and acts as the power broker. In that way, he will appear selfless,” said the university don.

University lecturer Francis Owakah argues that Kalonzo seems fringe as he “never really has eyes on the ball.”

“His presence is never felt. He relies on external support and that will be his undoing,” said Dr Owakah, adding that a partnership between the Wiper leader and Gachagua would be futile.

“Gachagua has sympathisers, not supporters. It is like a mob justice situation where witnesses tend to sympathise with the thief because they do not agree with the way they are clobbered. Besides, a Kalonzo and Gachagua coalition would be easy to fight as tribal,” he said.