Will Baba’s efforts to cure Raila-phobia in Central bear fruit

 There’s a fatter chance of the sun rising in the West than there is of Central Kenya throwing their lot in with Raila.

“A man who calls his kinsmen to a feast,” the old people said, “does not do so to save them from starving.” There’s something to be said about Africans getting together to enjoy a happy moment or two, and our old people knew what they were talking about.

“When we gather together in the moonlit village ground it is not because of the moon,” they sagaciously observed, “every man can see it in his own compound. We come together because it is good for kinsmen to do so.”

And so it is in Kenyan politics these days. Strange spirits of cooperation are abroad, the country is palpably peaceful and in the mood to get along with itself. What, pray do tell, gives?

As with everything else in Kenyan politics, the barometer is the indefatigable opposition doyen, Agwambo. He is the windsock of Kenyan politics, and the direction that politics takes in the country seems to be set in his office.

When Raila is in a violent mood, Kenya is convulsed with violence and chaos. When he feels happy and relaxed, the country heaves a collective sigh of relief. When he says there’s a fake cop hiding somewhere, the police commissioner poo-poos the assertion but quickly comes to regret it, for the words of Agwambo seem to have their origins in a shockingly well-informed information base.

When Raila sneezes, Kenya catches a cold. Wags will tell you that when Raila tells you your wife is pregnant, don’t argue; start buying napkins and making preparations for the new arrival!

And Baba has been busy of late. Busy making friends. Erstwhile enemies like Governor Waiguru, who as government minister was the target of ruthless undermining campaigns from the Raila camp, have trooped to the Kingmaker’s offices, eager for a photo-op with Kenya’s eternal political man-of-the-moment.

Even the president was not immune to Agwambo’s political gregariousness, laying on a State House back-slapping media appearance with Raila that culminated in the now-famous handshake. Some naughty wags replace “shake” with “cheque”, but who are we to quibble when the biggest gorillas in the room choose to cooperate rather than fight?

So, will anything come of Raila’s latter-day friendship-blitz? Kenya’s most astute politician has one blind spot, and that blind spot is called Central Kenya. Also known as the Kikuyu vote. Let’s not beat about the bush; hell will freeze over before Central Kenya votes for Raila Odinga.

It just will not happen, there’s a fatter chance of the sun rising in the West and setting in the East than there is of Central Kenya throwing their lot in with the man some once labelled 'muguroki' (mad man). Raila, however, is the eternal optimist. It takes a lot of optimism to be planning another presidential candidature for 2022, which will be a full 25 years since he first ran for the presidency.

So, will it be fifth-time-lucky for Agwambo? Not if he continues to waste his time and resources courting votes that he will never get. His political hugs and kisses are going to waste in Central Kenya. It’s a kin to winking at a girl in darkness, hoping for a response! His advisors are as fixated on Central Kenya as he is, but the rest of the country awaits and wonders who will court them.

This latest 'operation smile' with politicians from the region will not be any different, and a politician of Agwambo’s vintage does not need to be reminded that a political bird in hand is worth two in the Central bush. “Usiache Mbachao”, Agwambo should be told, “kwa mswala upitao.”

The spirited efforts to sort the small matter of Raila-phobia, Baba’s Achilles Heel that has been in existence for decades, is an uphill task that will not be fixed in a four years.

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