Ruto's State of the Nation Address paints image of two nations in one

On this account, the President appears to be a good student of Tony Blair, the second longest serving Prime Minister in post-war British history. Many pundits agree that Blair had a flair with words that always gave the impression that people needed to trust him. This may be what endeared him to the British people to grant him with the leadership of the nation at age 43, to become the youngest person to occupy the office since 1812, when Lord Liverpool became Prime Minister aged 42. Records also indicate that Blair is the longest serving Prime Minister of the Labour Party. This age threshold has only been achieved again by the current Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak who assumed office at age 42 on 25th October, 2022.

The question that is left for speculation in the case of President Ruto is whether the Hustlers, whom he sought to extol throughout the speech still trust him enough to cast their lot with him past 2027.

Poor timing

Choreographed around the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA), the 'trust me' message seems to fly into headwinds ab initio. The address was delivered in the week that media is reporting that job cuts and redundancies have peaked back to the Covid-19 period on account of high taxes by the government and a toxic business environment. On the same week, Uganda finalised severing their ties with Kenya on oil purchase agreements citing padded corruption costs on the G-to-G deal signed by the Kenyan side, taxes and underhand dealings from Kenya's oil marketers. The Ugandan government has since completed agreements with Tanzania to reroute their fuel supplies.

Other news of the week that dampen the president's address include the controversial proposal that fuel prices are likely to cross the Sh300 mark, at a time neighbouring countries are announcing reduction on pump prices; the hemorrhage at the stock market that has been unprecedented, with estimates that at least over 40 per cent of foreign investors have exited the Kenya's capital market; the president's economic advisor admitting the collapse of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows into the country in favour of our neighbours on social media; and the controversy surrounding the free fall of the shilling not only against the greenback but also against East African currencies.

However, the speech could never have come at a worse time than the administration's gazettement of revised charges for almost all government services by between 100 to 200 per cent on the eve of the address. Stamp duties on land transactions are proposed to increase by 100 times; while sharp divisions on the handling of travelers at the ports of entry played out in public among different state agencies. The Business Daily headline on the day of the address was of a dying middle class that has ditched spirits and beers for keg in response to the hard economic times.

To sum the mood of the nation, I walked into a photocopying shop within Eastlands to get a copy of my national ID just about one hour to the speech; this lady jokingly told me to guard my "gold" zealously as she returned my ID. She went ahead to elaborate that should anybody be mugged, then they should plead with their muggers to spare them the national identity card.

Over the same week, I hailed a cab through the apps on three different occasions; the cry is the same and consistent against the administration's tax policies. Cab drivers through the apps would represent the true definition of a highly randomised sample in data collection.

The icing of it arises from the practicality on some of the success stories shared. For instance, the story about the highest beneficiary from the Hustler Fund who has borrowed Sh4.5 million in 816 transactions does not add up. While this is not entirely impossible, it is not feasible under the Funds regulations, terms and conditions. The fund was launched on November 30, last year, meaning as at Thursday, it was about 343 days old. 816 transactions mean this hustler has been borrowing from the fund at an average of 2.4 times each day, an average of Sh5,515 per transaction.

This is not only not practical, but also not within the design of the fund. It is designed to start small, inbuild credit worthiness as it progressively enhances hustler borrowing capabilities. A Citizen TV sample of the price of a Gorogoro after the address in some parts of the country found it going for about Sh130 in Eldoret and between Sh140 - Sh230 in parts of Western Kenya. A recorded call of the President with the community health worker referenced from Garissa soon emerged on X (formerly Twitter).

While it does no harm to share such calls, it raises a serious question of the biases of the sample that the president talked to before his address to the nation. Any good analysts will be very hesitant to trust the outcomes of a pre-planned sample of respondents. This plays into the trust burden associated not only with the KK administration but also on the person of the President for his entire political career.

Take homes

In total sum, the proposition of the Health Workers Council to coordinate planning and management of the sector's human capital is much welcome. The gains made towards combating Climate Change and the gesture towards the ongoing Bipartisan talks are good. Key achievements on the fertiliser subsidies, open-air markets and even the affordable housing program crowd out the place of devolved governments. One cannot be left wondering why the national government is heavily encroaching on these devolved functions.

The newfound dalliance with the Bretton Woods agencies and their support for most of the proposed increases in levies raises many questions is to who is really in charge of the country's monetary policy. The president's top economic advisor had broached the hand of these multilateral agencies the night before in an economic forum where he was among the guest speakers. This leaves no doubt that the country has slipped into the era of multilateral conditionalities that have proven disastrous from previous administrations and in many other countries.

Overall, however, the media's post-address feedback from hustlers in various parts of the country paints an image diametrically different from that the President was talked about. If these sentiments from the dissenting voices will turn into real political costs to the administration, only time will tell. What is clear for now is that the President will need to distrust his men and seek honest feedback from the real hustlers before it is too late for remedial action.