Mudavadi best bet for State House tenancy, offers break with the past

Okwaro Oscar Plato

Once again, opinion poll ratings have shown Prime Minister Raila Odinga leading albeit with some slight drop over all the other presidential hopefuls, but below the 50-plus one margin, which means he would face a run-off.

Unlike those pundits who rely on pollsters to predict future pattern of events, I develop this hypothesis that the elections will be a three-horse race between Raila, Musalia Mudavadi, and Uhuru Kenyatta.

But that race will eventually narrow down to Musalia against Raila – a two-horse race that could see the latter face the unexpected wrath of his former ODM stalwart.

This country is politically polarised because of two tribes – the Kikuyu and Luo.

This means neither community is likely to embrace the other easily when it comes to voting. It is also true Kenyan voters are unlikely to vote back another person from the House of Mumbi to the pinnacles of authority.

This analogy then leaves the electorate with ODM’s Raila and UDF’s Musalia. While I believe pollsters would predict Raila as the likely man to give Musalia a run for his money, I will sketch a scenario that has Mudavadi coming out as the next president because of his perceived neutrality.

Kalenjin and Kikuyu elite have convinced the electorate that their tribulations are as a result of Agwambo, an emotive tag and allegation that Raila will not manage to counter easily even if he hires the best of propagandists not even an equivalent of the energetic chief propagandist  Joseph Goebbels (1897-1945) of Nazi Germany.

 From the ICC, Mau Forest eviction of the “defenceless” and the rebirth of Mungiki among others are all baggage burdening down the son of Jaramogi Oginga in his search for the Kalenjin vote.

When the race eventually narrows down to the two, the most likely scenario is that Mudavadi will inherit a large chunk of Kikuyu and Kalenjin votes.

He could inherit the Kikuyu vote because of his neutrality and having worked with Kibaki amicably without brushing the PNU side of the coalition the wrong way and the Kalenjin bloc since he has kinsmen in the Rift Valley.

This situation elevates Mudavadi to a “prince of peace” who can unite the Kikuyu, Luo, and Kalenjin. In the event that he chooses his running mate from the Kalenjin or from among the “Easterners” that then portends a catastrophic effect on Raila and ODM.

Musalia’s reserved mien and uncanny sober caution portrays him and the UDF party as boost national cohesion. Raila’s candidacy elicits mixed reactions: Strong passions, and divided opinion, with a serious task of political balancing.

In our tribal charged and divisive politics, Mudavadi offers this country an opportunity to break the “Big Families” chokehold on power.

He is perceived by electorate as an alternative competent leadership from Western Province, which demonstrates its neutrality by voting generously for any presidential candidate whose agenda target the populace.

As a Luhya, he would break the perennial duel between who from among the “Big Families” tribes would win the tenancy for the house on the hill.

The impact on the national psyche of such a choice would be incalculable, and may help us defang tribalism while working towards the achievement of national healing and cohesion. This point in history, Kenya requires a likable leader who epitomises peace and stability.

In many established democracies, heads of states are chosen from a cadre of leaders with exemplary track records where being a “career politician” is not deemed the best proving ground for national leadership. Perhaps it is why westerners vote retired military personnel and corporate CEOs instead of politicians.

Logically the argument is that managing the Treasury is the equivalent of managing a “mini-state”. Mudavadi has proved his worth as an economic steward of one of the “commanding heights” of the Kenyan economy.

For our economy to pair those of the Asian tigers such as Singapore and Malaysia – nations that were behind us in the 1970s – Kenyans must write epitaphs of contenders who “make news” and cannot “write news” in our history.

Though Musalia might not emerge victorious in the first ballot, the “Natural Law of Selection” could favour him crush ODM in the second round.

Mudavadi’s presidency promises a paradigm shift from a polarised course to a cohesive and optimistic nation that offers equal opportunity for all.

The writer is political analyst.