French PM Barnier faces ouster as opposition vows no-confidence vote

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivers a speech during the voting session on the draft of the Social Security bill 2025 at the National Assembly, the French Parliament's lower house, in Paris on December 2, 2024. [AFP]

France's Michel Barnier faced an abrupt end to his premiership Monday after key opposition parties said they would back a no-confidence motion against his government after only three months in power.

Certain that the National Assembly would deny him a majority backing the government's social security financing plan for next year, Barnier forced through the bill without a vote, using executive powers under article 49.3 of the French constitution.

The conservative premier, who formed a minority government in September after an inconclusive general election, has lived under the constant threat of a no-confidence vote that could force him to quit.

The government could be toppled as early as Wednesday when a vote is expected.

Barnier called it "a moment of truth in which everybody must take their responsibilities", warning against lawmakers putting "partisan interests" before the "best interest of the nation".

Far-left opposition party LFI said immediately it would bring a no-confidence motion which the far-right National Rally (RN) -- the largest single party in France's parliament -- said it would vote in favour of, after accusing Barnier of failing to negotiate on some of the bill's provisions.

Key to any such vote is Marine Le Pen, the parliamentary leader of the RN that has opposed several parts of the government's 2025 budget plan, including the social security financing bill submitted to the assembly on Monday.

In a last-ditch concession to the RN, Barnier's office said it was scrapping plans for a less generous prescription drug reimbursement policy from next year.

But the nod to Le Pen's concerns was not enough to avert the no-confidence motion for Barnier, who has little hope of finding any left-wing support.

'Political impasse'

LFI deputy Mathilde Panot said Barnier had sought to avoid the no-confidence vote by making "dishonourable" concessions to the RN. The passing of the vote would allow France to emerge from "a political impasse" and "political chaos", she added.

If the government falls, it would be the first successful no-confidence vote since a defeat for Georges Pompidou's government in 1962, when Charles de Gaulle was president.

The life span of Barnier's government would also be the shortest of any administration of France's Fifth Republic since 1958.

Le Pen had already reacted icily Sunday after Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin said the government did not plan any further changes to the social security budget plan.

The RN is the largest single party in the 577-seat National Assembly, with more than 140 deputies.

On Thursday, Barnier scrapped a previously planned increase on an electricity tax, in a concession to critics.

Saint-Martin has highlighted that the budget proposals have already been discussed by a parliamentary commission ahead of Monday's debate and changed following talks between National Assembly deputies and upper house senators.

Debt threat

The Senate, where right-wing parties have a majority, partly approved the 2025 budget Sunday, giving a green light to government revenue projections, in a vote boycotted by the left.

The Socialist party, part of the left-wing opposition, told Barnier it would vote against him if he used article 49.3 to push through a budget.

Saint-Martin warned the fall of the government would raise the risk premium on French government debt which has reached rare heights because of the country's shaky financial situation.

France escaped a debt downgrade by rating agency S&P last week, which said that "despite ongoing political uncertainty, we expect France to comply -- with a delay -- with the EU fiscal framework and to gradually consolidate public finances".

Barnier has promised to improve France's fiscal position by 60 billion euros ($64 billion) in 2025 in the hope of cutting the public-sector deficit to five per cent of gross domestic product, from 6.1 per cent of GDP this year.

Share prices on the Paris Bourse wobbled in reaction to the standoff Monday, and the euro dropped against the dollar as political uncertainty took its toll.

The yield demanded by investors on French sovereign debt rose, reflecting doubts in the market about the chances of a sustainable budget plan.

The risk premium on French 10-year government bonds is now similar to that paid by Greece.