Fugitive Bangladesh ex-PM still casting a shadow

Bangladesh's ousted leader Sheikh Hasina addressed the media a day after she won the 12th parliamentary elections in Dhaka on January 8, 2024. [AFP]

Her voice is that of a frail, elderly woman, but ousted Bangladesh leader Sheikh Hasina still has the power to incite from exile, vowing to return home despite facing the gallows.

Analysts say her defiance is not a death wish, but a desperate bid to remain politically relevant, claw on to her supporters, and revive an outlawed party which once dominated Bangladesh.

To her enemies, Hasina is evil incarnate -- a convicted fugitive sentenced to hang for crimes against humanity over her failed bid to crush the 2024 revolution that toppled her.

The 78-year-old told AFP in July from India that she wanted to return to Bangladesh by the year's end.

"I may be killed. I may be arrested. I may be sent to prison," Hasina wrote, in an email sent from hiding.

"I am fully aware of my fate. Still, I want to go back because my people are calling me."

On Wednesday, marking two years since she fled by helicopter to old ally India, she is due to address by telephone a New Delhi event entitled "Sheikh Hasina's homecoming".

"Sheikh Hasina's return is important for the survival of the party -- she is still a symbol," said Mohammad Jalal Uddin Sikder, a political science professor at North South University (NSU) in Dhaka.

One senior member of her Awami League (AL) party said he believed she was genuine in wanting to return.

"She feels obligated because party members are being arrested left and right, despite having no involvement in any crimes," he said, too fearful himself to speak on record.

"Her return is a way of repaying the party's loyalty."

Dhaka's Prothom Alo newspaper suggested her vow was "part of a strategy to energise party members, build pressure for the lifting of the ban on the party, and reclaim political space".

But former senior Awami League member Mahmudur Rahman Manna, now a fierce critic of Hasina, dismissed the vow as self-serving.

"There are people in the AL who have some degree of public acceptance. Sheikh Hasina could have given them a little space to help bring the party back after the ban. She didn't," he said.

"The idea that she would come back for the sake of the party is absurd."

Hasina also knows that simply threatening to return will needle Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, who swept February's elections in which the Awami League was barred, Sikder said.

Political imprisonment has a long history in Bangladesh.

Under Hasina's rule, Rahman's mother, former leader Khaleda Zia, spent years in jail in Dhaka on graft charges that her party said were politically motivated.

"The Bangladesh government isn't ready to accept her, even if she lands in jail directly from India," Sikder told AFP.

"Her return will create political instability... I doubt the government can handle that."

Not so, says Zahed Ur Rahman, an adviser to Bangladesh's prime minister.

"We want her back -- please return," he told reporters. "We have written to India. The individual we want to bring back intends to return. We are ready -- let her come, and we will ensure justice."

Hasina refused to attend her trial in Dhaka, where she was found guilty of incitement, ordering killings and failing to prevent atrocities.

Her vow to return comes as Bangladesh and India seek to repair strained ties, with Hasina remaining a persistent point of friction.

Dhaka has repeatedly requested her extradition, while New Delhi has said only that the request is being examined through the legal process.

But relations have improved since Rahman, leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, became leader, and India has invited him to a BRICS summit in September.

India's foreign ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal, speaking to reporters on Tuesday, sought to distance New Delhi from Hasina's "homecoming" speech.

"The government has no involvement whatsoever in it, neither does it endorse any views that may be expressed at the forum," he said.

But some in Bangladesh see India's hand in using Hasina's return threat as leverage.

Mahmudur Rahman, editor of Dhaka's Amar Desh newspaper, told AFP he saw her threat as part of a power struggle between New Delhi and Dhaka.

"Delhi wants to gain the upper hand," he said. "India is just playing 'Hasina card' to put pressure on the government".