Macron's dilemma: What next for France after PM resigns?

France President Emmanuel Macron. [AFP]

Shortly after French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu resigned, following less than a month in the job, President Emmanuel Macron was filmed walking by the River Seine in Paris, deep in conversation on his phone, with only his security detail at a discreet distance.

Whom Macron was speaking to and what he was discussing remains unclear. But the image symbolised the political solitude of the president as he faces a dwindling array of options, all of them hazardous.

What will Macron, who must step down as president in 2027 after serving the maximum two mandates, do next?

Here are four options evoked by analysts. None offers a quick solution.

Reappoint Lecornu

Macron appears to have given himself this option after Bruno Le Maire, a loyal former finance minister whose appointment as defence minister triggered the crisis, said he would withdraw from the government.

The Elysee then announced that Lecornu was being given two days to put together an action plan, with the Prime Minister saying he would hold "final discussions" with "all the political forces".

But it is far from clear that Lecornu would be able to appoint a government, let alone survive a confidence vote in parliament where his forces are in the minority.

Even were his mission to succeed, his reappointment as premier would not be automatic, said a French presidential official.

"The fundamentals of the problem remain the same: with or without Le Maire, they (the other parliamentary blocs) don't agree on the budget, pension reform, immigration and so forth," said Paul Taylor, senior visiting fellow at the European Policy Centre.

A new PM

If Macron appointed a new prime minister, the person would be the eighth premier of his rule and the third this year alone -- not good for France's reputation.

The left wants him to appoint a person who would push through a more expansive budget. But it is far from clear Macron would do this and even if he did, the new premier might not even enjoy support from throughout the fractious left.

"Another PM could be toppled within weeks -- making a new legislative election almost inevitable," said the Eurasia Group risk analysis firm.

Early elections

Macron has always resisted calling early elections, after his gamble to call snap polls in the summer of 2024 backfired and left France with a hung parliament.

But the president will "assume his responsibilities" if Lecornu fails over the next two days, a presidential official said, in apparent reference to calling early elections.

Such elections could lead to the far-right National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen bolstering its presence in parliament and even giving her protege Jordan Bardella the chance of becoming premier.

The outcome of such polls is far from clear, though Le Pen has described such elections as "essential".

"It is uncertain whether new elections would produce a different result than the one from last July," said Celia Belin, head of the Paris office of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

Resign

Macron has always rejected resigning before his mandate ends, which would trigger early presidential elections. But pressure is building on the president like never before.

"If new snap elections do not allow for a governing majority, the political crisis could turn into a regime crisis. In this case, President Macron's ability to stay in power could be questioned," said Belin.