Beyond roads and projects, verdict still out on Ruto's prosperity pledge

President William Ruto launches the Konyao-Alale road in Kacheliba, West Pokot County, on October 14, 2026. [Irissheel Shanzu, Standard]

“I am ready for next year for the people to judge our administration based on the commitment we made, because we said we are going to transform the nation.”

President William Ruto made the declaration at a roadside rally in Tinderet, Nandi County, during a tour of the North Rift in which he launched infrastructure projects, inspected roads and showcased his administration’s development record.

“I can confidently face the people of Kenya and tell them what I agreed with them, we have delivered,” he added.

Ruto has invited Kenyans to judge his administration by its work. The challenge is that the judge is not looking at the country from the podium.

For a student whose semester has stalled, a commuter facing higher fares or a household moving from one supermarket to another in search of milk, the government’s record is measured differently.

Analysts and scholars have offered different perspectives on how Ruto’s record should be assessed. Political analyst and scholar Joseph Kakai argues that the distinction between constructing infrastructure and improving lives should guide the assessment.

“A government should not be judged merely by what it builds, but by how effectively what it builds improves the lives of the people it governs,” he says.

“Roads, markets, universities, hospitals and other public infrastructure are important. But their ultimate purpose is not to become political achievements; it is to make human life more productive, affordable, secure and dignified.”

This is the central test facing Ruto: not whether development is happening, but whether its benefits are reaching the people for whom it is intended.

Dismas Mokua, a political risk analyst, argues that the President must demonstrate the connection between his signature projects and the economic security of ordinary citizens.

“President Ruto must translate infrastructure development into wealth and employment opportunities created,” Mokua says.

“This may be the game changer.”

He adds that voters must see how infrastructure and policy changes have translated into “not only employment and wealth creation but also political and economic security as well as food security, healthcare security and housing security”.

The two analysts approach the issue from different angles, but their arguments converge on one question: what has changed in the lives of Kenyans?

President William Ruto looks on during his meeting with South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa at the Union Buildings in Pretoria on June 4, 2026. [AFP]

The cost of unfinished commitments

One of the most immediate tests is playing out in public universities, where lecturers have been engaged in a dispute over the implementation of the 2025–2029 collective bargaining agreement.

University Academic Staff Union secretary-general Dr Constantine Wasonga has accused university councils, the Ministry of Education and the National Treasury of prolonged delays in implementing agreements reached with academic staff.

The union has rejected a proposed Sh9.76 billion allocation, arguing that it cannot finance the demands contained in the four-year agreement.

“The figure of Sh9.76 billion they are proposing in Machakos, the union is going to reject it. A CBA of four years cannot consume Sh9.76 billion,” Wasonga said.

For students, the disagreement is not an accounting exercise. It means lost teaching time, uncertainty over examinations and possible delays in completing their studies. Families continue to meet accommodation and living expenses even as academic programmes stall.

Mokua argues that the government must balance competing public expenditure demands.

“Acquiescing to all trade unions' demands means increased taxation. This potentially translates to a higher tax burden for the citizenry,” he says.

His point raises a legitimate question about how public wage agreements should be financed. A government cannot make unlimited commitments without considering the effect on taxes and other public services.

But the counterargument is equally important: fiscal discipline requires the government to negotiate realistically, establish credible funding plans and honour commitments it has made.

Kakai says a government must distinguish between making a commitment and putting in place a mechanism to fulfil it. When disputes persist, he argues, the consequences extend beyond the negotiating table to students, families and the country’s productive capacity.

The administration must therefore answer for the way it manages the dispute, even as the responsibilities of university management and the unions are considered.

The question is whether a government promising national transformation can prevent a prolonged dispute from disrupting one of the institutions expected to produce the skilled workforce the country needs.

When global pressures reach the household

Fuel prices present a more complicated judgment because the government does not control every factor determining what motorists pay.

The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority attributed the latest pressure on pump prices to rising international petroleum costs linked to the Middle East conflict. The average landing cost of super petrol rose by 11.81 per cent between August and September 2026, while diesel costs increased by 11.2 per cent.

The government reduced value-added tax on super petrol, diesel and kerosene from 16 per cent to eight per cent to cushion consumers. Yet international costs continued to put pressure on local prices.

Mokua insists that the distinction between domestic policy and external shocks matters.

“It is the case that President Ruto can influence variables in Kenya but has limited capacity to influence variables occasioned by geopolitical variables caused by political decisions outside Kenya,” he says.

“For instance, geopolitical variables occasioned by the Middle East conflict have a direct impact on the cost of fuel in Kenya.”

He adds: “Outside the tax component, President Ruto cannot move the needle on the cost of oil and gas.”

It would therefore be misleading to attribute every increase in fuel prices to the President. Kenya’s dependence on imported petroleum exposes the country to international market movements beyond its direct control.

But global explanations cannot be the end of the discussion.

Fuel is a cost that travels through the economy. When prices rise, matatu operators face higher operating expenses, businesses pay more to transport goods and food distribution becomes more expensive. Commuters and households can ultimately bear part of the burden.

The Matatu Owners Association has warned that operators may pass the additional costs to passengers rather than continue absorbing losses.

The government’s responsibility lies in the response: the effectiveness of tax relief, the transparency of petroleum pricing, the management of domestic costs and the measures taken to cushion vulnerable households.

As Kakai puts it, “The government is not responsible for every economic shock, but it is responsible for the quality of the country’s response to those shocks.”

“A government cannot promise to control the world. It can, however, be expected to build a country that is less vulnerable to the world,” he adds.

That is the distinction voters must consider when assessing the administration’s economic record.

Growth that households can feel

Official economic indicators offer another measure of the government’s performance, but they do not necessarily settle the argument about living standards.

Mokua argues that the President needs to explain the trajectory of the economy since he took office, including how fiscal and monetary interventions have affected employment, investment and household costs.

“He must also demonstrate how policy reviews and alignment have caused a direct impact in addressing the cost of living,” he says.

He poses questions that go to the heart of the administration’s economic promises.

 “How have his policy reviews around subsidies in agriculture, fertiliser, and seeds reduced the cost of unga? How have his sugar policies resuscitated the sugar sector? Are farmers getting paid competitive rates and in time? Are coffee farmers happy with increased earnings?”

These are questions of measurable outcomes. A fertiliser subsidy should be assessed not simply by the amount spent, but by its effect on agricultural production, farmers’ costs and the price consumers pay for food.

Similarly, infrastructure spending should be linked to employment, business growth and access to markets.

Mokua says the President must “demonstrate that he has gone the extra mile to create wealth and employment opportunities”.

Kakai’s argument is, “Economic growth and individual prosperity are related but not identical. National output can increase even when many households struggle to meet essential expenses.”

The difference becomes especially important when inflation slows. Falling inflation means prices are rising more slowly; it does not mean that goods have returned to their previous prices.

For families whose earnings have failed to keep pace with accumulated price increases, the pressure can persist even as headline inflation improves.

The administration must therefore show whether incomes and productive opportunities are improving alongside the wider economy.

The milk question and the Hustler promise

The pressure is also visible in the reported shortage of milk, where some retailers have limited purchases and consumers have struggled to find supplies.

Where raw milk is available, reports indicate that prices have exceeded Sh90 per litre in some locations.

The shortage requires an evidence-based explanation. Production, animal-feed costs, collection systems, processing capacity and distribution may all influence supply. But whatever the cause, the consumer’s immediate concern is whether a basic household commodity is available and affordable.

The issue also tests the promise that ordinary Kenyans would be placed at the centre of government policy.

Ruto’s 2022 Hustler Nation campaign appealed to small traders, casual workers and people seeking opportunities to improve their economic circumstances. His emerging message, “Usawa ni Sawa, Mbele Pamoja”, emphasises equality, inclusion and shared progress.

But equality must be demonstrated through tangible changes.

“How have his policy reviews around subsidies in agriculture, fertiliser, and seeds reduced the cost of unga?” Mokua asks, pointing to the need for a visible connection between policy and household welfare.

Kakai similarly argues that the government should be judged by purchasing power, employment quality and economic mobility.

For a mama mboga, the test may be whether business earnings can meet household expenses. For a boda boda operator, it may be whether income remains after fuel and maintenance costs. For a farmer, it may be whether production costs and market prices leave a meaningful return.

The question is not whether every citizen should receive the same economic outcome. It is whether the promised opportunities are becoming accessible and whether households are gaining greater financial security.

The politics of the verdict

The assessment will not take place in an economic vacuum. It will unfold amid political competition, questions of national cohesion and a contest over the meaning of the administration’s record.

The Kofi Annan Foundation’s Electoral Vulnerability Index has raised concerns about Kenya’s exposure to electoral violence ahead of 2027. The risk of political tension makes the conduct of national leaders an important part of the broader assessment.

Ruto’s confrontations with political opponents, including Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, must be viewed against the President’s responsibility to lead a diverse country. Political competition is legitimate, but leaders also have a duty to avoid rhetoric that intensifies ethnic hostility and to protect the impartiality of public institutions.

Mokua argues that the President needs a coherent account of his administration’s achievements and challenges.

“President Ruto needs to craft a strategic narrative that captures Kenya Kwanza promises made during the 2022 general elections and the path to implementation,” he says.

He adds that the President needs “trusted lieutenants to deliver his 2027 strategic narratives” and that the message “must be both emotional and rational to respond to different socio-economic interests and aspirations”.

Yet the quality of a political narrative is ultimately tested against the evidence. A compelling explanation cannot substitute for improvements in household welfare, just as criticism cannot by itself establish that every government policy has failed.

Mokua acknowledges the difficulty of translating economic performance into political support.

“Economic success doesn’t guarantee re-election. Economic failure, however, guarantees electoral loss,” he says.

The remark captures the uncertainty facing an incumbent. Even when some indicators improve, voters assess those gains alongside their own circumstances, local development, political representation and confidence in public institutions.

The final test is whether Ruto’s administration can point to infrastructure development, economic growth and interventions intended to cushion consumers. These are legitimate parts of its record.

But the judgment must also account for disrupted university education, fuel-price pressures, household struggles and the question of whether economic growth is creating broad-based prosperity.

Kakai offers the underlying principle: “The real test is not whether the government has built something, but whether the social and economic return justifies what the public has sacrificed to build it.”

Mokua’s challenge is complementary: demonstrate how the projects and policy decisions translate into “employment and wealth creation opportunities” and address the cost of living.

Neither argument requires Kenyans to dismiss development or ignore global economic constraints. They require the government to show its work.

As 2027 approaches, the President has made his invitation. The task for citizens is to examine the evidence: what was promised, what has been delivered, what remains unfinished and what has materially changed in their lives.

The verdict will not be determined by the number of projects launched alone. It will also be shaped by what Kenyans can afford, the opportunities available to them and the confidence they have in the institutions governing their country.

Ruto says he is ready to face the people.

The question is whether the record he presents will answer the questions they bring to the judgment.