Ruto's trial-and-error presidency

President William Ruto

A wave of uncertainty is sweeping across President William Ruto’s regime as frequent political and policy flip-flops expose an underlying fragility in his administration amid claims of an obsession with trial and error on critical programs as his key strategy to steer the country.

This is happening as the president is tossing aside some of the policies and programs he had pitched to Kenyans and spent billions of taxpayers' money to implement, while ignoring concerns from experts during his stint in power. Instead, focus has now shifted to new uncertain measures and the political playbook of promises.

While some of the programs have registered a mixed bag of fortunes, a vast majority are struggling under the weight of poor implementation, misplaced priorities, alleged executive interference and claims of corruption. But it is a trait that is permeating several spheres of his administration, including the personnel around him as he gambles with the constitution of his cabinet amid controversies surrounding the fate of his deputy Kithure Kindiki.

President Ruto is bidding to establish himself as one of the consequential presidents in the country’s history, and regardless of the outcome, critics believe he has already achieved that goal negatively and are warning that some of his recent strategic policy gaffes could take decades to repair. They believe the president is selling economic fantasies while sliding the country deeper into debt on flopped programs.

In the last few weeks, the president has tossed aside some of the programs his administration had pitched to Kenyans, replaced them with fresh ambitions, and retreated back to his familiar playbook of political promises, meetings with different groupings, and cash handouts disguised as empowerment programs.

The speed at which he has made political U-turns in critical sectors has left both friends and foes puzzled, but the friends are cheering him on. The programs touch on education, health, youth funding, housing, among others, which have consumed a fortune as the government struggles to craft a robust implementation plan.

Among the key policy changes in recent weeks are the decision to change the University Funding Model that had gobbled significant amounts in research, training, and implementation, the Social Health Insurance Fund, the Hustler Fund, Tax measures, as well as unfulfilled pledges on fertiliser subsidies and human rights abuses.

Last week, President Ruto left many puzzled after declaring that University education shall be free and dropping the university funding model that his administration had christened as the game-changer in the sector.

The government abandoned the controversial university funding model after sustained criticism from students, parents and universities, opting instead for full government funding for all students admitted to public universities.

 However, questions abound the implementation of the exercise after the move threw some 293, 869 students who are set to join universities in the coming weeks into a state of uncertainty. The proposed funding model is yet to be debated and approved by the National Assembly, further adding to the complexity of Ruto’s political proclamation.

Political strategist and governance expert Joseph Simekha says President William Ruto's frequent shifts in public policy reflect a leadership style driven more by optics than by substance, arguing that the President has consistently prioritised appearing innovative over delivering well-thought-out and sustainable solutions.

"The President is performing this hop, skip and jump dance with public policy because he is long on the optics of creating an illusion that he is smart, while he is very short on the substance of public policy, if at all. Human development has never been about loud, quick-fix options; it is about the hard work of thinking deeply and adopting genuinely participatory approaches to resolving the problems of the nation,” argues Simekha.

The analysts caution that muddling through policy options is a legitimate approach to public policy, but it only works when leaders are honest about the process and are genuinely pursuing substance over spectacle.

When he unveiled the student-Centred Funding Model as the solution to the long-standing financial crisis facing Kenya’s public universities three years ago, many had hoped it was the lasting solution to the teething problem of funding.

Today, however, that hope remains a pipe dream as Ruto mulls another experiment with the sector after replacing the traditional funding formula by allocating government support according to students’ financial need rather than applying a uniform approach.

But that is just one side of the story. The president’s Hustler Fund that had been tipped to transform the lives of young people is also limping as the program struggles. As a precaution, the government has shifted its focus to Nyota Funds, which has seen the president attend high-profile events to release funds to young people.

According to government reports, Hustler Fund borrowers have defaulted on about Sh12.5 billion, representing a non-repayment rate of 15 to 20 per cent of the Sh90 billion disbursed to 28 million borrowers.

Last week, the Fund, in partnership with Strathmore University and the African Management Institute (AMI), launched an initiative dubbed Tukuze Hub to provide business training, financial literacy and document success stories, as part of an effort to prevent its collapse. Speaking during a town hall baraza at Coast Car Park in Mombasa County, Hustler Fund representative Geoffrey Ochande said the initiative will help selected borrowers identify new business opportunities, increase their incomes and build stronger enterprises.

“Selected borrowers, identified based on their good repayment record, received an SMS inviting them to a short interview with a member of the Hustler Fund team. The interview confirms eligibility and provides more information about Tukuze Hub and the support available,” said Ochande.

He said the Hustler Fund baraza is designed as an interactive business forum that goes beyond a traditional government event.

He said the forum seeks to recognise responsible borrowers, strengthen financial literacy, promote timely loan repayment and connect entrepreneurs with opportunities that support business growth.

President Ruto campaigned as the champion of the "Hustler Nation," promising to uplift mama mboga, boda boda riders, hawkers and small traders through the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda.

His speeches centred on empowering ordinary Kenyans, reducing taxes on small businesses and creating opportunities for those at the bottom of the economic pyramid.

Today, however, the conversation has shifted dramatically.

Rather than speaking almost exclusively about hustlers, President Ruto now speaks of positioning Kenya among First World economies through Vision 2060, a blueprint that seeks to guide the country's economic, technological, social and governance transformation.

Launching the process, President Ruto said Kenya cannot afford to stop planning simply because Vision 2030 is approaching its end.

Political analyst David Owino sees it differently, arguing that the latest development fits an increasingly familiar pattern within the Ruto administration.

"President Ruto is establishing himself as a leader who is not afraid to abandon positions he once defended strongly. That has become the defining feature of his presidency," Owino said.

Since assuming office in September 2022, President William Ruto has demonstrated an unusual willingness to rethink, revise and, in some cases, completely reverse key government policies.

While his allies describe the changes as evidence of responsive leadership, critics argue they portray a presidency increasingly defined by policy reversals and shifting political narratives.

"The shift in messaging has been accompanied by major policy reversals whose impact has been felt by ordinary Kenyans. Yet, despite these changes, many of the President's strongest supporters continue to applaud every new direction he takes," Owino said.

Beyond policy, the President's political alliances have also changed significantly.

The broad-based government arrangement with sections of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), his fiercest competitor in the 2022 General Election, marked a major departure from the coalition politics that brought President Ruto to power.

The move fuelled criticism from opponents, who accuse him of constantly reinventing both his government and political strategy while weakening democracy by dismantling the country's opposition.

Speaking in Nyandarua, Gachagua questioned why Kenyans should be discussing development plans for 2060 while many households continue to struggle with the rising cost of living, insecurity and agricultural challenges.

"Farmers in Mwea and Ahero do not want to hear about Vision 2060. They want the government to stop importing rice so locally produced rice can be bought here in Kenya," Gachagua said.

Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka has also questioned the wisdom of introducing a new national vision while many promises under the current administration remain unfulfilled.

In the health sector, scores of patients are struggling to access healthcare as the crippling strike of health workers pushes the sector to the brink. In the sector, the introduction of the Social Health Insurance Fund by Ruto’s regime has not improved healthcare outcomes for patients, according to some experts.

Last week, doctors threatened to down their tools over the discrepancies in the implementation of the system and claimed they have been unable to access some services despite contributing Sh6,000 per month for their medical cover.

The Kenya Medical Practitioners, Pharmacists and Dentists Union (KMPDU) says its members are routinely turned away from hospitals and forced to pay out of pocket when seeking treatment. “We cannot be treating patients and providing them with care, yet we cannot get the same care,” said Deputy Secretary Dennis Miskellah.

The failed policies and the unfulfilled promises have now become fodder for the opposition who are using the failures to strengthen their anti-Ruto messages.

"This trial-and-error approach is not doing the country or its citizens any justice. It erodes public confidence in government and weakens trust in institutions. Ultimately, the responsibility rests with the Head of State and Government because all roads lead back to him. Unfortunately, he does not appear to care, and those around him seem unwilling to tell him that the king is naked. My hope is that when he finally realises the consequences of these decisions, it will not be too late, " says policy expert Joseph Ouma.