Western on standstill as rival politicians scramble for Mulembe cake

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna at Kvulini Ground, Thika on June 14, 2026 [Standard]

With barely a year to the 2027 General Election, Western Kenya has become the country's hottest political battleground, where rival political heavyweights are racing to consolidate one of Kenya's most influential voting blocs.

More than three political axes have already emerged, each seeking to shape the region's future and win the support of its estimated 2.6 million registered voters.

The battle is unfolding across the five counties of  Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, Vihiga and Trans Nzoia, with the pro-government camp and the opposition jostling for the region's votes.

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna's entry into the region's political matrix has ushered in a fresh wave that observers believe is bound to alter the region's political landscape, threatening the influence and careers of  Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang'ula, who lead the camp aligned to President William Ruto.

The group that appears rattled with Sifuna's entry also includes Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya and other influential leaders such as Bungoma Governor Kenneth Lusaka and Kimilili MP Didmus Barasa of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

Sifuna also appears to be gaining support from Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya and DAP-Kenya leader Eugene Wamalwa as Linda Mwanainchi faction gathers traction in the region.

Watching closely from the background is President Ruto, whose 2027 re-election strategy heavily depends on retaining Western Kenya as one of his strongest voting blocs.

The growing competition has transformed the region into a political chessboard where old alliances are being tested, new coalitions are emerging and long-established kingpins are facing perhaps their biggest challenge in decades.

At the centre of the changing political landscape is the Linda Mwananchi movement, a faction within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) associated with Sifuna and leaders opposed to ODM's growing cooperation with President Ruto's Kenya Kwanza administration.

The movement has staged rallies across Western Kenya and is increasingly presenting itself as an alternative political voice for the region and to accelerate Sifuna's potential presidential bid.

Its rise has exposed deep divisions while opening a fresh political battlefront against Mudavadi and Wetang'ula, who have traditionally dominated Western Kenya politics under Kenya Kwanza.

Speaking during interviews on local radio stations ahead of this weekend's rallies in Bungoma and Trans Nzoia counties, Sifuna said the meetings are intended to engage residents on the future of the region and give Western Kenya a stronger voice in national politics.

"I am overwhelmed by the support I keep receiving from Western Kenya. We will head to Bungoma and Trans Nzoia, where we shall discuss the future of our counties, our region and our country," Sifuna said.

He described the rallies as part of a broader campaign to build a citizen-driven political movement centred on accountability, good governance and better leadership.

Political observers say the movement's growing popularity is steadily eroding the influence Mudavadi and Wetang'ula enjoyed after helping deliver a significant share of Western Kenya's votes to President Ruto in the 2022 General Election.

Compounding the pressure on the Kenya Kwanza heavyweights is the rise of Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, whose confrontational style has disrupted the region's traditional political order.

Although not formally part of the Linda Mwananchi movement, Natembeya has increasingly found common cause with leaders opposed to the Kenya Kwanza administration.

Through his Tawe Movement, he has aggressively campaigned for a united Luhya political voice while accusing Mudavadi and Wetang'ula of failing to protect the region's interests despite occupying powerful positions in government.

Speaking during recent rallies in Bungoma and Trans Nzoia, Natembeya accused Wetang'ula of frustrating emerging leaders and cited the removal of Bumula MP Jack Wamboka from the leadership of the Public Investments Committee as evidence of political intolerance.

"The person who should be protecting our people is now the one championing their removal from key positions," Natembeya said.

The governor has also intensified attacks on President Ruto's administration over the high cost of living, increased taxation and the country's economic challenges, while increasingly sharing platforms with opposition leaders, including former

Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka.

Political analysts believe the parallel rise of Natembeya and Sifuna presents the most serious challenge Mudavadi and Wetang'ula have faced in years, particularly among younger voters and grassroots supporters.

Apart from Natembeya and Sifuna, leaders such as Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, Saboti MP Caleb Amisi, Kabuchai MP Majimbo Kalasinga and Bumula MP Wanami Wamboka are also seen as advancing similar political ideals centred on greater regional bargaining power.

Former ODM grassroots mobiliser Boniface Aluda argues that cooperation between Sifuna and Natembeya could produce a formidable political force capable of unsettling both ODM's establishment and the ruling Kenya Kwanza coalition

"By working with Natembeya, Sifuna may be seeking to consolidate support in Western Kenya and build a formidable regional stronghold capable of unsettling both ODM's establishment and the ruling coalition," Aluda said.

He believes Western Kenya is gradually splitting into two dominant camps.

"On one side stand Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang'ula, long regarded as the region's kingpins backing President Ruto's re-election bid. On the other side is a bold brigade comprising Natembeya, Sifuna, Amisi and Osotsi, whose defiant politics are unsettling the old guard."

The political equation has been further complicated by ongoing negotiations between ODM and UDA, which could significantly reshape alliances ahead of the 2027 General Election.

Analysts argue that if ODM formally deepens its cooperation with UDA, leaders associated with the Linda Mwananchi movement could emerge as the new face of the opposition in Western Kenya, further weakening the dominance of Mudavadi and Wetang'ula.

However, the scramble extends far beyond these two camps.

Other influential leaders from the region are also positioning themselves on the national political stage.

DAP-Kenya leader Eugene Wamalwa has renewed calls for Western Kenya to unite politically, arguing that the region has sufficient numbers to influence the outcome of the next General Election.

"The Luhya vote must count for the presidency, not just negotiations," Wamalwa said, insisting that Western Kenya is ready to produce Kenya's next president if its leaders rally behind a common political agenda.

Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah also continues to build a national profile through his governance and accountability campaigns, while Oparanya remains one of the region's most influential political figures and is increasingly being mentioned in discussions over President Ruto's running mate.

Within Kenya Kwanza, Mudavadi and Wetang'ula have equally intensified mobilisation efforts.

Mudavadi recently announced that he would reduce his foreign engagements to concentrate on consolidating the Mulembe vote for President Ruto.

"In the run-up to the 2022 election, I deliberately assembled a team that helped me reach Luhyas from all the 17 constituencies in Nairobi. I am going to use the same strategy again. President Ruto will win next year, and I hope our people will listen carefully to this message," Mudavadi said.

Wetang'ula has also heightened his political activities in the region through his empowerment programmes.

The Speaker has openly declared his long-term presidential ambitions, telling supporters in Trans Nzoia that senior Luhya leaders had endorsed his future bid.

"I am the most senior leader from the Western region, and my position as the third in command gives me a better chance to succeed President Ruto," Wetang'ula said.

As various leaders position themselves, debate has intensified over whether Western Kenya should instead negotiate for the Deputy President's position in exchange for supporting President Ruto's re-election.

Political analyst David Owino argues that Mudavadi's bargaining power has weakened significantly after dissolving ANC and folding it into UDA.

"Without an independent political vehicle, Mudavadi's leverage is weaker in coalition politics, where party strength matters," Owino observed.He adds that Wetang'ula's position could equally come under pressure if ODM secures greater influence within government through a formal agreement with UDA.

Lawyer and political analyst Moses Ombayo warns that Western Kenya risks repeating its historical mistake of political fragmentation.

"The elusive Luhya unity may remain just that if we have multiple camps, each supporting its own candidate. It can only be achieved if the region unites behind a single contender," he said.