How UDA lost Ol Kalou

DCP candidate Sammy Kamau Ngotho won the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election. [Kipsang Joseph, Standard]

It has now emerged that competing personal interests among President William Ruto's UDA allies, clashes of egos, an uncoordinated campaign approach and a fight for loyalty to the President are some of the reasons for the party’s resounding loss in the Olkalou by-election.

According to insiders within the party, have intimated that different politicians within the party had arrived in Olkalou for their personal political interests as opposed to drumming up support for the party’s candidate Samuel Muchina.

Some of them were on a mission to popularise themselves as the best replacement for Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and were focused on endearing themselves to the locals, while others competed to earn Ruto’s attention so that they could be named his go-to person in the region.

“There were three streams of resources and each leader tried to out shine the other in trying to present themselves as leaders who had direct link to the President and this made the coordination of the campaigns extremely difficult,” a insider who had camped in Olkalou told The Sunday Standard.

Another source disclosed that the government had intelligence it would lose and that they were keen on reducing the margin so that there could be a perception that Ruto retained considerable support but the intention flopped due to other factors such as former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s growing influence and violence meted out by State-sponsored goons.

The violence, The Standard has learnt, divided the government luminaries in the Constituency as some of them viewed that antagonising the electorate by use of goons would drain the little gains they had made in the Constituency.

The lead-up to the election was highly tense, marked by chaotic campaign trails and alleged intimidation. Reports of armed confrontations, teargas, and the alleged harassment of opposition figures heightened tension and drove a wedge between the state and the local electorate

At some point, former Trade Cabinet Secretary differed with Interior Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen, who blamed Gachagua for the political violence meted out on Linda Mwananchi leaders in Nyahururu.

He stated that the confrontation stemmed directly from Gachagua's rhetoric and alleged that some of the attendees were invited with the expectation of being paid, which helped fuel the unrest.

Kuria, who was among the lead campaigners of the UDA candidate, refuted the claims, saying, ‘I can confirm that the violence against Linda Mwananchi in Nyahururu was not planned by the opposition. The truth shall set us free.’

The political violence that left scores injured worked against the government with locals being hardened to make a political statement in the ballot by voting out Muchina who has worked with the late MP Davidi Kiaraho for 13 years.

Nyandarua Senator John Methu and Ol Kalou MP-elect Sammy Ngotho during the by-election on July 16,2026. [Kipsang Joseph, Standard]

 Additionally, the UDA-affiliated leaders admitted that the party's campaign strategy backfired because of attempting to heavily influence voters with excessive cash handouts and an overwhelming campaign presence a move that felt insincere amongst the voters.

Some politicians described the aggressive approach as "arrogant," which pushed independent-minded voters to support the DCP instead.

Nominated Senator Karen Nyamu said Ruto allies, whom she described as overzealous leaders,  did everything they though would work to impress the President and ended up creating the impression of desperation and ultimately pushed the people away.

“I know President Ruto wasn’t involved in the Ol Kalou campaigns. Not in strategy and not even in funding. What you saw was overzealous leaders who support the President doing everything they thought would work, falling over themselves trying to impress the boss,” she added.

She added, “I can’t help but wonder, did we overdo trying to win this Ol Kalou and ended up giving desperate vibes instead? Desperation is repelling. When you pursue too aggressively, it creates the opposite effect. People still want to feel respected, not overwhelmed.’

 Another reason attributed to UDA's loss is Gachagua’s sympathy vote that is closely connected to DCP candidate Kamua Ngotho. Ngotho was serving in the office of the Deputy President until Gachagua’s impeachment, when he was fired following the appointment of Deputy President Kithure Kindiki.

The Ol Kalou by-election served as a major proxy war for control of the Mt Kenya region following the fallout between Ruto and Gachagua.

Gachagua’s camp, operating through the DCP, positioned the victory as a referendum against the ruling administration, successfully rallying locals around the narrative of regional defiance and asserting their political independence with Ngotho repeatedly rallying locals that he was jobless due to Kindiki’s elevation as Gachagua’s successor.

Government's braggadocio and bravado have also been cited as other reasons that led to the UDA’s crashing defeat in Olkalou. Leaders bragged how the government had set aside billions of money to dish to the electorate openly and publicly.

Some of the leaders included Nakuru East David Gikaria and Leader of the Majority in the National Assembly Kimani Ichung’wa who was heard telling the electorate how they would receive Sh5000 each for attending a rally.

According to Suba North MP and National Assembly Minority Chief Whip Millie Odhiambo, the humiliating defeat suffered by UDA in the Ol Kalou by-election was a consequence of leaders becoming arrogant and disconnected from ordinary Kenyans.

Odhiambo said political leaders had ignored repeated warnings from within the ODM)and the broad-based administration, choosing instead to take the public for granted.

“If we had listened, we would not have even lost Ol Kalou. We would not have lost Ol Kalou because one of the things that have been told is that we are taking the public for granted. We are very arrogant as leaders. We don’t listen to the people. We don’t know what people are going through. People are suffering,” she said.

Odhiambo insisted that her participation in government would not stop her from speaking out whenever she believes leaders are going astray.

“I am in broad-based government, but when there are bad things happening, I, as a person with a human rights background, cannot be quiet,” she said.

The veteran legislator added that ODM has values it must continue to defend despite working alongside the Kenya Kwanza administration.

“There are things that ODM as a party stands for, and as a founding member of ODM, I cannot allow us to do wrong things. I am in broad-based government, but I will still say the right things,” she said.

 Constitutional Lawyer, Senior Counsel Ahmednasir Abdullahi said goonism and violence played a significant role in the death and demise of UDA in Ol Kalou.

“Goonism, which is flourishing as a powerful and well-resourced department in the Ministry of Internal Security Office of the President has lately scared Kenyans to death. Ol Kalou voters strong repudiated the thesis that voters can be forced by goons and other violent characters to vote for a preferred candidate. Going foward, Politicians must know that gooism and violence will cost them votes,” he said.

He added, “Development" on wooden boats, gas cylinders and electric poles on the roadside annoyed Ol Kalou voters. UDA flashed the discredited "development card" as if it was doing a favour to the Ol Kalou voter. Fake promises of unrealistic "development" turned many voters in Ol Kalou against UDA. Voters rightly saw the lies and false promises made just to get their votes.”

He added that the face of UDA campaigns was lightweight and not credible, saying Kuria had many qualities but ‘not a good trusted salesman’.

“A salesman speaks with measured tone and seriousness. Kuria speaks too fast and playfully for a rural audience like Ol Kalou. He is effective and impressive in Live tv shows but he didn’t come out credible in rallies in rural Ol Kalou,” he said.