Why a small election in Mt Kenya will have giant consequences
Politics
By
Steve Mkawale
| Jul 12, 2026
Ol Kalou has it all in just a matter of weeks. Yesterday's violence where goons attacked and injured DCP campaingers destroying their property was the culmination of days of tension and cutthroat campaigns to influence the voting pattern.
What would ordinarily be a by-election for Ol-Kalou voters to pick their representative following the death of David Kiaraho has morphed into a major contest that mirrors the biblical confrontation between David and Goliath.
The Ol- Kalou contest, which has catapulted the constituency to the national limelight, has turned into "a scorched earth" political duel between the ruling party UDA and the diminutive DCP party.
The high-stakes political battles between various antagonistic camps have drawn the wrath of the IEBC, whose chairman warned of cancelling the by-election or postponing it altogether due to activities which he said bordered on electoral malpractices.
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The commission also imposed a Sh1.5 million fine on Kipipiri MP Wanjiku Muhia for allegedly making inflammatory statements targeting sections of the residents of Ol-Kalou.
The IEBC threats and actions demonstrate the high stakes involved in the by-election campaigns, as sections of leaders unleashed unconventional strategies and underhand methods, including massive voter bribery, to secure a win.
Ol-Kalou constituency is located in Nyandarua County, which members of the populous Kikuyu community predominantly inhabit.
Nyandarua County has been at the centre of politics of defiance since the time of the slain former MP J.M. Kariuki, who was perceived to be the leader of anti-establishment politics during the reign of Mzee Jomo Kenyatta.
During the reign of retired President Uhuru Kenyatta, residents of Rurii Ward in Ol-Kalou constituency rejected a Jubilee Party candidate in a by-election to fill the seat following the death of the area MCA, and instead elected a UDA candidate.
The voters' action was perceived as a slap in the face to Kenyatta, the regional kingpin.
A former Ndaragwa MP, Mwangi Gichuki, told the Sunday Standard that the region's "politics of defiance" was rearing its head to an extent in the current by-election.
"Sections of the Ol-Kalou region and the larger Nyandarua County have been radicalized and have a negative perception against the UDA government following the impeachment of Rigathi Gachagua", the former MP stated.
Gichuki added that whereas the government-allied leaders had trooped into the constituency with bags of goodies to woo voters, some voters were hardening their resolve to rally behind Gachagua.
Nyandarua County was one of the regions that solidly backed President William Ruto's presidential bid, but the support has since waned, especially following the impeachment of Gachagua.
Nyandarua, a settlement area, has large pockets of Kikuyus from Gachagua's home county of Nyeri, who have been sympathetic to him. The county also has pockets of Kikuyus from Kiambu and Murang'a counties.
UDA, headed by President William Ruto, saw the by-election as an opportunity to assert its strength in Mt Kenya region, where its popularity has been waning, with the Gachagua-led DCP party getting an opportunity to demonstrate that the region was its political stronghold.
By a strange twist of fate, the Ol-Kalou contest is perceived as a replica of yet another vicious political battle in the area, which was part of the wider Kipipiri constituency three decades ago, between the then-ruling KANU party and the Democratic Party.
KANU, headed by then-President Daniel Arap Moi, suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of the DP party led by opposition leader Mwai Kibaki.
Incidentally, the Kipipiri seat had fallen vacant following the death of area MP Lavan Muchemi in 1995, who had been elected on a Ford-Asili party ticket in the 1992 general elections, following the reintroduction of multi-partyism in the country.
The opposition had whitewashed KANU in the Kikuyu-dominated Central Kenya region, and the MP's demise provided an opportunity for the ruling party to attempt to establish its tentacles in the area.
After a vicious and bruising political battle that saw President Moi engaged in an unprecedented door-to-door vote-hunt campaign, the DP candidate, Paul Mwangi Githiomi, emerged the winner with 14,854 votes while KANU's Joe Maina garnered 3,144 votes.
Githiomi's support translated into 82.5 per cent of the votes cast, with his opponents receiving 17.5 per cent.
Ol- Kalou constituency was hived off from the larger Kipipiri constituency.
In the ongoing campaigns for the seat, both UDA and DCP have their "claws out" in what has become a zero-sum political contest.
Candidates from other parties taking part in the by-election, including those from the Jubilee Party, which is seeking to recapture the seat, have been running low-key campaigns as UDA and DCP go for each other's jugular.
The by-election, which has generated intense political heat in the constituency, has been reduced into a battle of the titans: the DCP party led by Gachagua and the ruling UDA party led by President Ruto.
Pundits opine that the death of David Kiaraho, who was elected on Jubilee Party ticket, presented an opportunity for UDA to attempt to clinch the seat, with the newly formed DCP fielding a candidate to demonstrate its political muscle in Mt Kenya region.
Gichuki, the former MP, added that by running a vicious political campaign in the area, UDA was waging psychological warfare to demonstrate that President Ruto had not yet abandoned the Mt Kenya region and was still willing to continue working with residents despite having parted ways with Gachagua.
"It does not make sense for UDA to make the kind of investment it is making in Ol-Kalou, but at another level this is intended to portray a public image across the country that President Ruto has no problem with Mt Kenya residents, but has only differed with the DCP leader,” Gichuki stated.
The government, in an unprecedented show of might in a by-election, has deployed teams of Cabinet Secretaries, governors and principal secretaries to the area, where they have held meetings with voters at the grassroots level.
The outcome could reshape the political trends and power dynamics in the larger Mt Kenya region and the country at large as the 2027 General Election approaches.
At one level, the contest appears typical, with many candidates focusing on hyperlocal issues such as development, effective representation, access to markets for their farm produce, and school funding.
However, in other respects, it is unique.
Samuel Kamau Ngotho, the DCP candidate, is contesting to become the first MP under the new DCP party, as Gachagua is eager to reinforce his status as the region's political kingpin.
A victory for Ngotho, the DCP candidate, will reinforce Gachagua’s position as an independent powerbroker and undisputed regional kingpin.
Gachagua, who is currently fighting his impeachment in court, is leading a campaign to prevent President William Ruto from securing a second term.
He is determined to ensure that the Mt Kenya region, which played a crucial role in Ruto's narrow 2022 victory, does not vote for him in next year's elections.
Recently, he retreated to his rural Wamonyoro home to consult with other leaders and supporters, and to strategies Ruto's possible ouster at the ballot box.
Gachagua views the by-election as an opportunity to send a message to Ruto.
He has appointed his lieutenants, led by Nyandarua Senator John Methu, to deliver the Ol Kalou seat to the DCP.
Senator Methu is undeterred, having posed a real challenge to the ruling UDA party.
Over the past year, Methu has exerted influence among a section of Mt Kenya youths due to his perceived closeness to Gachagua.
The special election, known as a by-election, was triggered by the death of three-term MP David Kiharao; it has since become a fierce, multi-billion-shilling proxy war among national powerbrokers.
UDA, under President Ruto and Deputy Kithure Kindiki, is backing Muchina Nyaga, a former personal assistant to the late MP.
Although the late MP won the seat in the 2022 General Election on a Jubilee Party ticket against the odds, UDA aims to demonstrate that Ruto still commands strong loyalty in the region despite shifting political allegiances.
A win for Nyaga would affirm the influence of Ruto's regional political allies, such as Nyandarua Woman Representative Faith Gitau, Laikipia East MP Meangi Kiunjuri and Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru.
‘Poll goodies’
The government has mobilised substantial state resources to influence the 73,480 registered voters.
Over Sh10 billion has been invested in the constituency in recent weeks, including a Sh 200 million Kenya Power connectivity project, the distribution of 20,000 discounted gas cylinders, community fishing boats, shoes, and promises of Sh 5 billion for road networks.
Critics and watchdog groups argue the ruling party is leveraging development projects as conditional incentives, while rival politicians have been observed distributing large cash handouts.
The high stakes have led to serious electoral malpractice, prompting IEBC to intervene.
Cases of widespread voter bribery, nocturnal campaign activities, vandalism of posters, and violent clashes involving youth gangs have already resulted in one casualty.
IEBC Chairperson Erastus Edung Ethekon has warned he may disqualify guilty candidates or postpone the election if the security situation worsens.
Gachagua has hit back at Ethekon, warning him against delaying the by-election.
He claims President Ruto is using the electoral agency to stall the mini-poll out of fear that the UDA candidate will lose.
He heavily criticised the IEBC Chairman for threatening to postpone the election over voter bribery and violence, pointing out that the commission remained silent during the chaos in prior by-elections such as Mbeere North and Kasipul.
He also demanded that the IEBC enforce the law against State officers openly buying votes rather than punishing local voters by halting the process.
What will the results say about the ruling coalition?
Ruto’s party has secured significant victories in the most recent rounds of mini-polls in 2026, dominating both parliamentary and ward seats across multiple counties.
In the May by-elections, the ruling party pulled off a clean sweep across Narok, Samburu, and Elgeyo Marakwet counties.
In Emurua Dikirr Constituency, David Kipsang Keter won the parliamentary seat with 18,266 votes, comfortably beating Vincent Kibet Rotich of the DCP, who got 10,760 votes.
Endo Ward (Elgeyo Marakwet): Festus Korir Kiprop clinched the Member of County Assembly (MCA) seat with 4,475 votes, defeating Shadrack Kosgei of the New Democrats Party.Porro Ward (Samburu).
Daniel Lolngojine secured the ward seat with 2,328 votes, finishing ahead of KANU’s Josphat Jumani Leleur.
Analysts say the by-election on Thursday gives Ruto another chance to demonstrate that voters across the country support his development agenda.
"If Nyaga wins, it would arguably represent one of Ruto's biggest victories since his 2022 presidential campaign. He will walk to the 2027 polls head held high," Observed Joseph Omondi, a leadership and governance expert.
Consequently, a defeat would be a blow to Ruto, raising questions about his ability to consolidate the Mt Kenya voting bloc and how he will meet the constitutional threshold of 50℅ + 1 to win a second term.
However, much as the win for the DCP candidate will give him a shot in the arm, Gachagua downplays the significance of the poll, saying the Ol Kalou by-election results were irrelevant to Mt. Kenya’s pre-decided 2027 plans.
"The outcome of Ol Kalou is irrelevant. The mountain had moved on. When its people make a decision, they don't look back. This by- election has no significance for 2027: what will happen then has already been decided. He told a press conference on July 10.
What has puzzled many in Ol Kalou is the Jubilee Party candidate, Engineer Wilson Kigwa's, reserved nature during the campaign.
Kigwa was picked by the party to fly its flag at the by-election; IEBC cleared him for the race, but he has remained insignificant.
According to Nakuru West MP Samuel Arama, who is a member of the party, the contest is a two-horse race between the DCP and UDA.
The outspoken legislator told the Sunday Standard that Jubilee’s candidate is likely to finish a distant third in the mini-poll.
“I am a Jubilee member, but what I know is Ol Kalou is a two-horse race between UDA and DCP,” Arama said.
Arama, a National Executive Council (NEC) Jubilee Party member, went on to praise the DCP, saying the seat is likely to be won by the party’s candidate, Samuel Waweru Kamau. According to him, most residents of Ol Kalou are rallying behind the DCP candidate, giving him an advantage over his rivals.
The Linda Mwananchi factor
The Edwin Sifuna-led Linda Mwananchi movement had scheduled a tour of Nyandarua to support what they termed as a "united opposition candidate". However, Gachagua could hear none of it leading to Linda Mwananchi calling off the campaign blitz.
The movement has been pushing for the United Opposition to back one candidate.
Its spokesperson and Suba South MP Caroli Omondi urged the United Opposition to settle on one candidate, saying the movement would back and campaign for the agreed-upon candidate to ensure the seat remains in opposition hands.
“So that you know, as Linda Mwananchi, we don’t want to go there and take sides, yeah, but if there’s one person from the opposition, it’s easy; we will go and campaign for that person, and I’m very sure we will win Ol Kalou,” Omondi said.
He specifically urged the DCP, the Jubilee Party, Martha Karua’s People’s Liberation Party (PLP), and Caleb Amisi’s People’s Renaissance Movement (PRM) to engage in consultations and reach a consensus candidate.
However, the movement's intervention has caused friction within the broader opposition landscape.
Gachagua publicly warned Linda Mwananchi and Murang'a Governor Irungu Kang'ata to keep off the by-election, insisting on keeping the race a strictly local affair. Pundits feel this could have led to the cancellation of the tour by the Sifuna-led opposition wing.
Kang’ata has reacted by clarifying that the Linda Mwananchi movement will be in Nyahururu town for a meet–the–people tour on Sunday. His reaction means that the team would not be part of the Ol Kalou campaign.