TIFA survey: How UDA-ODM pact lost Kenyans in six months

President William Ruto and ODM leader Oburu Oginga at a past event. [File, Standard]

More than half of Kenyans now oppose the Broad-Based Government, with support for the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and United Democratic Alliance (UDA) coalition arrangement crumbling to its lowest level in a year, a new poll shows.

A TIFA Research survey, conducted between May 2 and 1, finds 56 per cent of Kenyans oppose the Broad-Based Government (BBG) while only 30 per cent support it.

Nearly twice as many Kenyans now reject the arrangement as back it.

Support stood at 44 per cent as recently as November 2025 before falling back to near its August 2025 level of 29 per cent. Opposition has risen from 48 per cent in November to 56 per cent today.

The top reason cited by those who oppose the BBG is that it benefits political leaders rather than ordinary wananchi, at 41 per cent.

Twenty-seven per cent say it weakens opposition oversight, while 15 per cent say it causes confusion and a lack of accountability.

Among those who support it, 41 per cent cite improved policy stability and national unity as their main reason, while 25 per cent point to regional inclusivity and 22 per cent to better service delivery.

Geographically, the BBG finds its only remaining stronghold in Northern Kenya, where 58 per cent still support it. Support has fallen in every other zone, most steeply in Western Kenya, from 62 per cent in November 2025 to 29 per cent, and in the Central Rift, President Ruto's political backyard, from 60 per cent to 32 per cent.

In Nyanza, support has dropped from 59 per cent to 49 per cent.

Thirty-eight per cent of Kenyans say the BBG is not likely at all to survive until the 2027 election.

Even among BBG supporters, only 31 per cent believe it will hold together, against eight per cent of BBG opponents who share that view.

Thirty-six per cent of Kenyans also say ODM is unlikely to remain united ahead of 2027, a figure that rises to 45 per cent among those who oppose the BBG.