Kalonzo-Matiang'i ticket emerges as opposition's best shot at defeating Ruto

If the opposition fields a joint ticket, Kenyans prefer a Kalonzo Musyoka and Fred Matiang'i pairing as the strongest challenge to President William Ruto in 2027, a new poll shows.

The TIFA (The Institute for African Studies) Research survey, conducted between May 2 and 11 among 2,013 randomly selected Kenyan adults across all 47 counties, finds 31 per cent of opposition supporters favour a Kalonzo-Matiang'i combination, narrowly ahead of a Kalonzo-Edwin Sifuna pairing at 28 per cent.

A Rigathi Gachagua-Kalonzo ticket comes third at 25 per cent among the same group.

The pairs were tested without specifying who would serve as president or deputy president.

When asked individually which opposition leader stands the best chance of defeating Ruto, Kenyans are near equally split.

Matiang'i, Kalonzo and Gachagua each attract 18, 18 and 17 per cent respectively, with Sifuna not far behind at 10 per cent.

The data points to a fragmented opposition that has yet to coalesce around a single figure. Among Ruto's own supporters, 40 per cent say no opposition pairing appeals to them at all, a figure that reflects confidence in the incumbent but also the difficulty the opposition faces in consolidating its vote.

Among Broad-Based Government (BBG) opponents, Matiang'i draws the highest rating as Ruto's most potent challenger at 23 per cent, while BBG supporters give that distinction to Kalonzo at 18 per cent.

 Those with no opinion on the BBG identify Sifuna as the most viable challenger at 18 per cent.

The Kamba community shows the highest unanimity behind any single candidate nationally, with 93 per cent naming Kalonzo as their community's political leader, a cohesion that gives him a near-certain vote bloc in Lower Eastern.

Among the Kisii, 83 per cent name Matiang'i, underlining his regional base.