Pundits: Ruto's chance to smash Gachagua a poisoned chalice

President William Ruto is on the horns of a political dilemma this week. He is faced with the hard options of allowing the impeachment of his deputy Rigathi Gachagua and deal with the consequences the next three years or save him and stay in a sulking quarrelsome relationship through to 2027.

Pundits have likened Ruto to a man walking in half shadow, half sunlight, balancing on a sword’s edge as he weighs the option of the after-effects of an impeached Gachagua versus the indignity of managing a perceived errant principal assistant.

Others argue that  Ruto has nothing to lose by having the DP impeached early enough, as retaining him for the next three years is unsustainable, their relationship will grow more toxic and messy by the day.

The Deputy President has over the weekend embarked on a bareknuckle attacks on his boss in a whirlwind tour of Mt Kenya counties of Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Embu, Meru and Tharaka.

Gachagua launched scathing attacks on Members of Parliament from the Mt Kenya region whom he accused of being used to bring him down. 

Interestingly, only five out of 86 MPs accompanied the DP in his tour of Kirinyaga and other counties.

Whichever decision the President will make, political analysts argue, will have spiral political consequences for him and will inevitably cause ripples in the country’s political ecosystem as the clock ticks towards the 2027 general election.

As the proponents of the motion say they have gathered the requisite support to push their agenda through the National Assembly, all eyes are set on a proposed UDA Parliament Group meeting set to be held either today or tomorrow.

It is believed that the meeting has everything to do with the widening fissures in the party as a faction of MPs with close proximity to the President embarked on the campaign to eject the DP from his position for allegedly disrespecting Ruto and undermining the government.

Over the weekend, a section of lawmakers from Ruto’s political bedrock in the South Rift region, led by Leader of Majority in the Sanate Aaron Cheruiyot, declared they would back Gachagua’s removal from office.

They accused Gachagua of orchestrating ethnic politics and engaging in 2027 succession politics instead of working with the President to unify the country and deliver the government’s development agenda. 

MPs from different regional caucuses have been holding night meetings for the past two weeks to lobby their members to support the motion once it is tabled in the National Assembly.

One time Subukia MP Koigi wa Wamwere told The Standard the President had already realized that a huge chunk of voters in Mt Kenya region had deserted him and the continued stay of Gachagua in government serves no political purpose for him.

“It is clear to President Ruto that he has lost substantial ground in Mt Kenya and Gachagua would continue being a thorn in his flesh if he retains him in the government for three years only for him to disembark in 2027,”  Koigi said.

The former strong critic of strong arm leadership said his stay in the Narc administration where he served as an assistant minister in President Mwai Kibaki’s government exposed him to an understanding of “dirty tricks and machinations used by the government to contain its opponents.”

The seasoned politician said Gachagua cannot manage to wage a three-year war against a combined force of President Ruto and his new found political ally Raila Odinga.

“I am sure the impeachment motion is meant to subdue the Deputy President and make him toe the line after he realises that he has no numbers and has no support in the national assembly,” Koigi added.

Koigi, who belonged to a team of seven Members of Parliament branded as the seven bearded sisters during the one party rule of the early eighties for their persistent attacks of the government, said Gachagua lacked a formidable team of MPs to fight his political battles.

Nevertheless, Koigi said if Gachagua was to be edged out of government, the President would face a backlash of resentments from sections of Mt Kenya voters who would sympathise with the DP.

He observed that previous administrations have also faced numerous challenges which those in power have always strived to solve without taking drastic political action.

“We now have a situation where the President is running the government by balkanizing the country along ethnic lines. That is why he is creating division between Mt Kenya East and Mt Kenya West, and also wooing Luos to support his government to checkmate the Kikuyus,” Koigi said, adding that negative ethnicity and use of regionalism to perpetuate divisions amongst Kenyans to pursue a political cause does not augur well for the country.

MPs from different regional caucuses have been holding night meetings for the past two weeks to lobby their members to support Gachagua's impeachment motion once it is tabled in the National Assembly. [DPCS]

Kabue Mathenge, a political strategist to former presidents Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta said the impeachment motion for Gachagua would serve as a poisoned chalice for the President.

“The President has drawn his sword too early and this has sent signals of betrayal to Mt Kenya voters who feel that one of their own was being unfairly targeted for victimisation. It will be difficult for the President to instill the confidence of Mt Kenya residents in his administration,” Mathenge opined.

“When Gachagua spoke to Mt Kenya residents in mother tongue and said that a senior person called him stupid five times, and later he reflected and saw that he had been indeed stupid to abandon Uhuru Kenyatta, he sent a strong message. This is telling as he has now to redeem himself from that tag of being stupid by shepherding the community out of the Kenya Kwanza administration,” he added.

The political strategist said if President Ruto was to continue working with Gachagua, the two would be in a position to stabilise the government and ensure delivery of services to the people till 2027.

Political commentator Andrew Nyabuto says it was evident that the Deputy President and the President were pulling in different directions due to their bloated egos.

“These two men have high temperament and bloated egos and that is why they are unable to tolerate each other. The only option is for them to part ways. If the President retains Gachagua in government, their relationship will continue to be messy and will impede the delivery of services to Kenyans. Gachagua will continue blackmailing and arm twisting the President and eventually be a thorn in the President’s flesh,” Nyabuto said.

Nyabuto said the President had the option of rallying his troops to  eject Gachagua from the government and go to Mt Kenya region, where he managed to rally the community behind him, and explain his action.

“It is also apparent from the complains being aired that a majority of Mt Kenya voters will not support President Ruto in 2027 and Gachagua would therefore not serve a useful political purpose in the Ruto administration which he is antagonizing,” Nyabuto added

The commentator said Gachagua will continue playing victim of President Ruto’s machinations in the run up to the 2027 election.

“I do not see any reason why the President should retain a deputy who is undermining him and who will chart his own cause in 2027,”  Nyabuto said.

One time Molo MP Njenga Mungai said the impeachment motion against the DP was accelerating tribalism in the country and urged President Ruto to amicably resolve his differences with his assistant.

Mungai, who served Molo as a two-term MP during the Moi administration between 1988 to 1997 added that impeachment was an adverse political tool which should be used as the last resort after all avenues of resolving disagreements in the government have failed. The former lawmaker, who is the chairman of Jubilee Council of Elders, said the impeachment motion was a double edged sword for the President. 

“If the DP is impeached, the residents of Mt Kenya will perceive the President as a person who cannot be trusted. The impeachment of Gachagua will also depict President Ruto as a person who is unable to handle criticism considering that President Uhuru Kenyatta, who he undermined while serving as his deputy, tolerated him in his government,” Mungai said.

Mungai said Ruto’s attempts to divide the residents of Mt Kenya into two camps, Mt Kenya East and West, portrays him as a person bent on balkanizing the country along ethnic lines.

“We saw President Ruto leading rebellion in Uhuru Kenyata government and Raila Odinga leading rebellion in Mwai Kibaki administration, the two presidents used their leadership skills to stabilize the government without mobilising MPs to impeach their opponents,” Mungai said.