Why many politicians are uneasy about Raila-Ruto deal

Opposition Leader Raila Odinga addresses the media after the signing of IEBC bill that was developed from NADCO report into law by President William Ruto. [Denish Ochieng, Standard]

President William Ruto’s political deal with his rival Raila Odinga is likely to have far-reaching ramifications on the careers of many politicians.

Some of the casualties may include Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and Speakers of the National Assembly and Senate Moses Wetang'ula and Amason Kingi respectively.

For one, their influence in government is likely to be watered down, as Raila is expected to play a significant role in key government decisions, even without a formal position.

With its members holding influential dockets, including the National Treasury, ODM's impact on governance will be felt.

Besides the parties presence in the Cabinet, ODM members will come in handy in passing the government's agenda in Parliament, which gives the former Prime Minister an even bigger say in Ruto's administration.

Now that he is on Ruto's side, the ODM leader will be expected to use his influence in his strongholds of Nyanza, Western and Coast regions to popularise the government agenda.

This means he could end up upstaging Mudavadi, Wetang'ula and Kingi who are seen as the regional kingpins in Western and Coast regions. The entry of Joho, Raila's right hand man at the Coast, could in particular complicate matters for Kingi.

Already, several Cabinet Secretaries have been swept aside by Raila’s wave to pave way for his men in Ruto’s Cabinet. They include Njuguna Ndung'u, whose Treasury docket was handed to ODM national chairman John Mbadi.

Simon Chelugui, who was the only carryover from Uhuru Kenyatta's Cabinet, could not withstand the Raila tide. His Cooperatives and MSME ministry has been taken over by ODM deputy party leader Wycliffe Oparanya.

Cabinet Secretaries who were seen as Raila's counterforce in his strongholds have been displaced by his entry. They include Eliud Owalo (ICT) from Nyanza and Ababu Namwamba (Sports) from Western. 

Incidentally, both Owalo and Namwamba were once close allies of the ODM leader, with the former having served as his aide, while latter was once the party secretary general. With Raila now on Ruto's side, their importance in the scheme of things may have diminished.

That may also explain the fall of Moses Kuria (Public Service), a long-time harsh critic of Raila. Now that the government's political agenda does not include keeping Raila in check, Kuria's usefulness may have been minimized.

Another group of losers in the Ruto-Raila deal include the five rebel ODM MPs who shifted their allegiance to the government in the name of securing development for their people.

They include Kisumu Senator Tom Ojienda, MPs Felix Odiwuor aka Jalang'o, (Langata) Caroli Omondi, (Suba) Gideon Ochanda (Bondo) and Elisha Odhiambo (Gem).

Because of associating with Raila, the five were treated as outcasts in the ODM party which saw its organ, National Executive Committee expel them for "going against the party's wishes by cooperating and working with President William Ruto's Kenya Kwanza Government".

Raila had asked them to resign from the party if they want to work with Kenya Kwanza.

"If you want to leave ODM and join UDA, then leave Parliament and return to the people to be re-elected under UDA," Raila said.

"In Nairobi, we have Lang'ata MP and you know the rest. We have told them that we are returning to the ground and if you get re-elected on UDA, that is fine but we must go back to the election."

But since he has netted the rebels’ boss, the President may not need them as Raila has more clout and numbers in Parliament to sell the government's agenda in Nyanza region, and in the House.

The Raila Ruto deal has had the effect of unsettling the secretaries general of both the ruling UDA and ODM Cleophas Malala and Edwin Sifuna respectively. Both SGs have their origins in Western Kenya.

The two have joined other Western region leaders in an apparent strategy to give them a stronger bargaining power in government.

They include Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya and MPs Caleb Khamisi (Saboti) Jack Wamboka (Bumula) and former Cabinet Secretary Rashid Echesa.

They said they had organised a meeting which will bring together leaders from Vihiga, Kakamega, Busia, Bungoma and Trans Nzoia counties.

They accused leaders from the region who hold senior positions in government of failing to fight for the interests of their people.

“We feel they are not concerned about the welfare of the community,” Natembeya said.

Malala said they will meet in Kakamega on Monday. “We want to discuss our way forward as a community,” Malala added.

Sifuna said they would not have called the meeting “if there was leadership in the country.”

“That realisation is what brings all these people together. We are not interested in attacking anyone, we just want to consult,” added Sifuna, who is the Nairobi senator.