An open letter to opposition candidates seeking to oust Ruto in 2027

This weekend coincides with the first anniversary of the eternal exit of Raila Amolo Odinga from the Kenyan political theatre. Arguably, the spirit of the man will live with us for many generations to come due to his exploits in birthing multiparty democracy in the country and his resilience in opposition politics. 

To pay homage to his legacy, in today’s article we explore the lessons and misses for the opposition brigade to whom the baton was suddenly passed to, especially with a focus on the upcoming general election. Next year would be the first time in almost five decades that a general election would be happening without the Raila factor in the equation.

It is no wonder that his many political orphans are fighting over who has more of his spirit to inherit his enduring legacy in opposition politics. Looking back at the various events of the week, it is easy to notice that even in death, Raila still divides those in government with those in the opposition. While President Ruto was in Bondo last week on October 7 to formally hand over and dedicate the  Raila Odinga Mausoleum at Kang’o ka Jaramogi, the opposition team took over the show at Migwena Cultural grounds on Thursday.

Missed lessons

Only a naïve person can miss the octane political chase moves in these events. Interestingly, the opposition is playing Raila’s rule book of the past three general elections that never worn him the presidency. Probably drawing lessons from the losses of the first multiparty elections in 1992, there has been this notion that the incumbent can only be beaten through a boardroom deal where the opposition agrees on a single candidate.

Reflecting back, however, the trends from the past three election cycles do not support this theory. In 2013, Raila crafted the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) to face the joint ticket of former President of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, brought together by a simple pre-election agreement of their two independent parties. By 2017, Uhuru/Ruto ticket had collapsed into a single Jubilee party while Raila’s CORD had morphed into the National Super Alliance (NASA). Uhuru Kenyatta won the presidency in both cases, despite the nullification of first round of the elections in 2017.

The same script was played in the run up  to the 2022 general election. The then Deputy President had successfully created a formidable opposition inside government while he strategically pivoted to the United Democratic Alliance (UDA). While UDA leaders traversed the length and breadth of the nation soliciting for votes, building military type of organizational grassroot structures and mobilizing resources for their candidates, Raila’s new political vehicle, Azimio la Umoja -One Kenya Coalition Party was still negotiating and cutting deals in boardrooms with tribal kings until March 2022, only 5 months to the general elections.

While there still remains legitimate questions over the integrity of the past three general elections, one of the undoubtable truths is that Azimio campaign machinery was shambolic at best. Insiders from the coalition have since immortalized the chaotic grassroot structures and the illusion of control of a deep state that never came through for them in the hour of need.

Looking at the evolving opposition groupings from an objective angle, one cannot fail to wonder if any lessons have ever been learned from these earlier losses or whether any honest and candid introspection has ever been conducted. It is worthy noting that majority of the opposition candidates have been with Raila in the cooking pot in all or different formations.

In the emerging scenario, the notion of a single presidential candidate chosen from a boardroom deal seems to be the de facto model for the opposition. On the incumbent side, President Ruto has technically never stopped campaigns from the date he won the presidency. He has curated political forums and overtures to be development programmes and opportunities to allow ordinary Kenyans access to experience the trappings of power at statehouse.

Exploiting state resources and government machinery, he has travelled to some of the remotest villages in the country and pulls stands in rural schools, village kiosks, places of worship and homes of households. With an open mike, he has turned the opposition moves into public comedies and entertainment jigsaws. The precision of his intelligence network on the happenings in the opposition camp is amazing.

A good strategist cannot fail to deduce the fact that he has planted moles everywhere within the opposition, over and above state intelligence networks. To imagine that his comic stands and physical presence across villages in the country have no actual impact on possible voter behaviours is simplistic. As human beings, we are social beings and a powerful man of his caliber casually walking into your house, kiosk or hustle means a lot for ordinary folks.

It is not just the presidency; good students of Kenyan politics and smart political operatives understand this very well. Ever noticed how politicians miraculously become humble around election seasons and easily mingle with voters during election periods? From a strategic point of view, it is a huge political miscalculation for the opposition operatives to imagine fielding a single candidate alone is enough to win them the presidency.

The second blunder from the opposition grouping is the misinterpretation that the Gen-Z anger and revolt of 2024 automatically translates to their voting constituency. It is without a doubt that there still exists considerable anger and disillusionment among the populace against the government in office. However, the absence of ideological standards of Kenyan political parties make voters easily manipulable through handouts, lies, cajoling and sometimes veiled threats.

Tragedy of status quo

Tracing the country’s history of post-election violence, many voters would rather let the incumbent finish his two terms than rock the boat and destabilize their fragile peace at the household level. Besides, the incumbent, with state machinery at their disposal, has a competitive advantage if electoral manipulations come into play to win a highly contested election.

Students of Kenyan politics tend to agree that probably only two elections (at independence in 1963 and in 2002) were won and lost squarely and fairly over our six decades of independence. Thus, a seasoned strategist for any formation must factor this history and possibility into their strategies.

The third consideration for the opposition are the changing voter demographics. This has a huge potential to shift the issues that voters may care about at the ballot and level of awareness. We may disagree on many things politically, but one thing that cannot be denied is that the Ruto presidency has significantly disrupted the traditional political institutions of the country, destabilized dynastic economic and capital distribution systems, dismantled the illusion of an invisible deep state and elevated levels of voter awareness both for good and bad.

The question left now is how these changes on the country’s political, economic and social structures will play at the ballot. For this column, we deeply care about politics because political outcomes shape economic and social outcomes in turn.

If I were to be called to be the opposition advisor today, I would tell them they need to urgently retreat up into the mountains to figure out if they want the presidency or not!