Intensifying political campaigns and worrying signs ahead of 2027 elections

 President William Ruto.[File, Standard]

There are worrying trends in the country as members of the political class display ethical deficiencies and gross irresponsibility. Although they swore to protect and uphold the 2010 Constitution, they violate it in spirit and practice, especially the parts on national values and Bill of Rights. Ignoring the dangers of inciting violence, they instill fear by spouting foul language, mobilising goons, and threatening zoning to isolate targeted Kenyans. Since they appear to have immunity, the country should be worried as it approaches the 2027 election.

Although neither people in William Ruto’s UDA-ODM government nor their political opponents currently inspire much confidence, the Ruto administration has seemingly lost more public trust than any regime before it. This is because he engages in wasteful expenditures of public resources, which the auditor-general repeatedly exposes, while presiding over the collapse of national institutions that should provide such basic services as health and education. He is articulate in front of captive local and global audiences but is weak on credibility and delivery. Surrounding himself with people he occasionally admits are incompetent might explain the growing national dissonance.

Some Cabinet secretaries and ‘supporters’ capture attention, supposedly defending Ruto, with warlike and irresponsible utterances. UDA secretary general, a scion of a pre-colonial Mombasa dynasty, has aspirations to govern Mombasa and thinks he can win by attacking the Jomo Kenyatta family. One Cabinet secretary reportedly dehumanised Kenyans by referring to them as ‘hyenas', a type of dehumanising ethnic profiling probably as a prelude to evictions. While a nominated MP vows to expel Kenyans from their homes in Uasin Gishu if they oppose Ruto, another minister wants to split Mount Kenya. Since Ruto seemingly tolerates or encourages such sentiments, he gains negative instead of the positive public image that he craves for.

While Ruto’s team discredits him, presidential dreamers disappoint the public as they compete to replace him. First, the promise in the Linda Mwananchi team of Edwin Sifuna, James Orengo, and Babu Owino eroded when Orengo declared his presidential ambition. Like Sifuna among the Luhya and Rigathi Gachagua in the ‘Murima’, Orengo wants Luo leadership that fell vacant when Raila Odinga died.

Orengo, the longest-serving and active politician, challenged Raila’s leadership in 1994 after Jaramogi’s death and won and again in the 1997 election and lost. He quickly returned and stayed with Raila to the end. Orengo’s declaration, therefore, did not target Sifuna; it was to disconcert other claimants to Luo leadership. Those affected include John Mbadi who denies facts; Gladys Wanga, who dreams of replacing Kithure Kindiki; and John Kaluma who issued a “command” to his men to “disappear” those talking ‘wantam’. The wish of these three, and their friends, to stop Orengo might degenerate into a regional civil war.

Second, the national hold that Rigathi Gachagua appeared to have when he bounced back from the impeachment saga is petering out. Despite John Methu’s “sikuogopi” excitement, the Wamunyoro wave in the ‘Murima’ is not as dominant as before because other ‘principals’ in the ‘opposition’ make it clear that they do not answer to him. Former Attorney General Justin Muturi openly endorses Kalonzo Musyoka, former CS Peter Munya wants his independence, and those in Jubilee have no time for him. There is also Jimi Wanjigi talking about financial mismanagement and Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro claiming a stake in the ‘opposition’ sweepstake. Ndindi, like Haron Mwau in 1992, wants a seat at the power bargaining table.

The disarray in the ‘opposition’ favours Ruto but not Kalonzo Musyoka who seems to be on a steady rise.  As others falter and cancel each other, they might rally around him as the best option, probably deputised by Sifuna. The snag is that each prima donna believes that he/she is president because, in their minds, Ruto has already lost due to perceived unpopularity. The contest will be rough and worrying.