To be better prepared for coming El-Nino rains we must draw from historic lessons

Nairobi and Sewerage Company Officials at the site where Water tunnel supplying to Nairobi Embakasi areas was swept by floods due to high pressure.[File, Standard]

Almost 30 years ago, Kenya experienced exceptionally heavy rains from October 1997 to early 1998. More than 1.5 million people were adversely affected, according to later assessments by the United Nations, and by mid-1998 nearly one million people were still affected by flooding and the associated disease outbreaks. The El Niño rains at the time showed us that the dangers posed by extreme rainfall do not end when the waters rise. Reports from the time describe widespread displacement, isolated communities, destruction of roads and bridges, damage to water systems, and loss of crops and livestock.

Research, however, indicates that forecasts about the 1997/98 El Niño rains were available, including those issued by the Kenya Meteorological Department. At the time, there were no systematic mechanisms that would translate this information into messages that could reach communities, let alone institutional structures that would translate forecasts into preparedness actions. The floods themselves, according to World Bank reports from the time, contributed to damages equivalent to 11 per cent of the country's GDP. The lesson from 1997 was not simply that El Niño could produce devastating rains, but rather that weather forecasts and warnings without preparedness and early action are not enough.

For a generation of Kenyans, El Niño isn't simply a weather phenomenon; it is a memory etched into our collective memory, a memory of roads disappearing under water, communities being cut off and swept away, and families waiting for help. Emergency response efforts at the time addressed many of these consequences, with government and military personnel taking the lead. Kenya Red Cross Society relief workers participated in evacuation efforts in many parts of the country, including Tana River, where communities were stranded after the river burst its banks. The organisation also supported affected communities by donating tonnes of food, providing medical assistance and distributing other relief supplies.

At the time, Kenya Red Cross was responding to the consequences of the El Niño disaster. Today, the organisation is increasingly seeking to act before these consequences materialise. This represents an important shift in how we think about disasters, not simply as events to respond to, but as risks that can be anticipated and prepared for.

But 1997 was not the last time Kenya experienced the consequences of El Niño. The country would face another major episode in 2023, when El Niño-enhanced rains brought severe flooding across parts of the country. The crisis continued into the March-May 2024 rainy season, with two consecutive seasons of extreme rainfall resulting in flooding across 46 of Kenya's 47 counties. According to the IFRC's final assessment, the combined impacts resulted in deaths and the displacement of more than 729,000 people.

The experience of 2023/24 demonstrated both how far the country has come since 1997 and how much remains to be done. There are now stronger forecasting systems and greater capacity to communicate warnings and prepare for disasters. Kenya Red Cross, for example, issued 35 million early-warning messages during the 2024 floods, alongside rescue operations and other assistance to affected communities.

Nearly three decades on, the country is in a different position. Better access to information, stronger forecasting and improved early-warning mechanisms have allowed government agencies and organisations to increasingly translate forecasts into action. But questions still remain: Can we ensure that early warnings reach the intended communities in time and in a manner that informs them to act?

During the March-April-May rains earlier this year, many communities across the country were affected by flooding, including in the capital Nairobi. Government agencies, alongside organisations such as Kenya Red Cross, deployed and pre-positioned relief supplies ahead of the floods. In areas such as Tana River, communities were moved to higher ground before the rains arrived. This proved critical as the rains came down heavily, while those who did not act were left to deal with the rising waters.

These experiences demonstrate why early warning and early action are vital elements of disaster preparedness. But a warning is only useful when people receive it, understand it and act on it. Messaging through platforms such as local and community radio stations play an important role in reaching communities, particularly when messages are delivered in languages that people understand and are accompanied by clear, practical guidance.

As Kenya prepares for another period of potentially heavy rains, preparedness activities cannot be left to government agencies and humanitarian organisations alone. If heavy rains do come, knowing whether you live in a flood-prone area is important. Paying attention to official warnings, knowing where to move to safety, avoiding flooded roads and rivers, and taking early action when advised can make all the difference.

For motorists, this means not driving into floodwaters simply because a road may appear passable. For landlords and property owners, it means ensuring drainage systems are not obstructed and communicating the risks to tenants and occupants. For communities living in flood-prone areas, it means knowing evacuation routes and identifying safe places to move to before the situation becomes dangerous. Preparedness is not meant to create panic or alarm. Its purpose is quite the opposite; to replace panic with preparedness.

The question today is not whether Kenya has experienced El Nino before, we have. The question is whether we have learnt enough from each experience to act earlier the next time the warnings come.

Almost 30 years ago, the country experienced the consequences of not being prepared enough. Today, we have better information, stronger systems and greater experience. But these systems only work if we collectively act on the warnings they provide. We cannot prevent the rain from falling, but we can prepare for what may happen.