Is Kalonzo Musyoka's grip on Ukambani weakening?

Wiper Patriotic Front  Party Leader Kalonzo Musyoka  speaking at the Konrad Adenauer-Stiftung's Youth Building Bridges Strengthening Inter-Party Cooperation For The Young Generation Forum at Nairobi's Ufungamano Hall. [Jenipher Wachie, Standard]

Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka is facing growing pressure in Ukambani as influential figures and grassroots leaders increasingly shift their loyalties.

Recent moves by county leaders and emerging parties have exposed cracks in his traditional support base, raising questions about his ability to consolidate the community ahead of the 2027 elections. 

A few days ago, Kibwezi West MP Mwengi Mutuse led Maendeleo Chap Chap leaders and other community leaders to the State House for a meeting with President William Ruto.

Soon after, Speaker Kevin Kinengo of the Kitui County Assembly, a member of Kalonzo’s party, mobilised a majority of MCAs, many aligned to Wiper, for a similar visit.

These developments have underscored the growing appeal of alternative voices in Ukambani politics. 

At the other end of this shift is Augustus Muli, Party Leader of the National Liberation Party (NLP).

Muli has positioned NLP as a rising force in Ukambani. The party has steadily gained ground by defending and fighting for its rights through the courts, embedding itself in county assemblies, and mobilising at the grassroots level with what Muli describes as an “onslaught on unproductive leadership.

NLP now boasts more than half a million registered members across the larger Ukambani region, a figure that underscores its growing organisational strength. Its influence is further reinforced by the backing of the Anzauni clan, one of the largest and most influential clans in Ukambani, giving the party deep cultural and community roots. 

Political Heavyweights in Ukambani, such as Charity Ngilu, Alfred Mutua, Johnstone Muthama, Senator David Musila, Jonathan Mueke, Mwengi Mutuse, Charles Nguna, Nimrod Mbai, and Penina Malonza, have all joined the growing list of those who are resisting the monopolisation of politics in the region, and most of them are now supporting President William Ruto.

Analysts argue that while President William Ruto has intensified efforts to woo Ukambani leaders, Kalonzo has instead issued threats and intimidation to those engaging with the State House. This approach has alienated potential allies, leaving him increasingly isolated as figures like Muli and NLP consolidate influence. 

Political observers say Kalonzo’s presidential ambitions will remain fragile unless he reaches out to these Ukambani leaders and rebuilds consensus with emerging political entities.

With these growing realities, the big question is whether Kalonzo will swallow his pride, embrace and forge new alliances and friendships in his home ground or continue to walk alone while his rivals gain ground.