How Raila's dalliance with Ruto might influence 2027 contest

President William Ruto and Raila Odinga at State House, Nairobi, where he was officially unveiled as Kenya’s candidate for African Union Commission Chairperson on August 27, 2024. [PCS]

President William Ruto's endorsement of Raila Odinga's candidacy for the African Union Commission (AUC) and the inclusion of Raila’s close allies in the broad-based government could have significant implications for the 2027 elections.

By supporting Raila for the key role at the AUC, Ruto may be cultivating goodwill between them. This strategy could help establish a cooperative relationship, potentially decreasing the chances of Raila posing a serious opposition threat in 2027. If Raila shifts his focus to the continental role, it might lessen his direct engagement in domestic politics, allowing Ruto to strengthen his position. 

Raila has long been one of Ruto’s toughest political opponents. By backing his AUC bid, Ruto could be subtly encouraging Raila to withdraw from the local political arena. This would not only lessen the intensity of opposition Ruto might encounter in 2027 but could also fragment Raila’s support base, further weakening the opposition.
Ruto’s endorsement of Raila could also be aimed at boosting Kenya’s influence in regional and continental matters. Having a Kenyan leader at the AUC would enhance the country’s diplomatic standing, which Ruto could use to improve his reputation both at home and abroad. This could indirectly support his 2027 campaign by presenting him as a leader capable of elevating Kenya’s role on the continent.

Backing Raila’s candidacy could be interpreted as a move towards national unity and reconciliation. Given the historical political rifts between their supporters, Ruto’s endorsement might resonate with voters weary of past divisive politics. It could help Ruto shape an image of a leader who transcends political rivalry and prioritises the national interest, a narrative likely to appeal in the 2027 elections.

In a surprising turn of events, President William Ruto visited the Nyanza region last week to attend the homecoming celebrations for his new Cabinet secretaries (CSs) namely; John Mbadi and Opiyo Wandayi. He was joined by a government delegation that included CSs, Principal secretaries, governors, MPs, and other senior officials.

Ruto was warmly welcomed as he launched various development projects across Migori, Homa Bay, Siaya, and Kisumu counties. The President’s successful visit to a region that overwhelmingly supported Raila in the last election indicates his intention to collaborate with the former Prime Minister ahead of the 2027 general elections. This move represents a significant shift in the political landscape.

Ruto and Raila have had a long history of being both political rivals and allies, with their rivalry reaching its peak during the contentious 2022 presidential election. Ruto’s victory in that election was perceived as a setback for Raila who had the support of the then-incumbent government led by President Uhuru Kenyatta. However, the ever-changing nature of Kenyan politics has allowed the former adversaries to become allies once more. This situation is reminiscent of their collaboration in 2007, highlighting the fluid alliances that define the political landscape in the country.

Political scholars and analysts suggest that several factors may have influenced Ruto’s decision to reach out to Raila Odinga.

Firstly, by collaborating with Raila, Ruto seeks to strengthen his power and expand his support base. Raila's influence is still significant, especially in the Nyanza region and among specific voter groups. This partnership could help Ruto secure a majority in the 2027 elections, positioning him as a strong candidate. Ruto’s choice may also reflect an intention to promote national unity. Considering Kenya’s history of election-related violence and ethnic strife, a collaboration between two of the nation’s leading figures could aid in healing divisions and fostering a sense of togetherness.

Secondly, partnering with Raila might enable Ruto to concentrate on governance without the persistent threat of opposition. With Raila by his side, Ruto could more easily advance key legislative and policy initiatives, thereby speeding up his development agenda.

Lastly, both leaders are likely contemplating their legacies. For Ruto, a successful alliance with Raila could characterise his presidency as one focused on reconciliation and nation-building. For Raila, aligning with Ruto could offer him a crucial role in shaping Kenya's future, even if he does not hold the presidency.

While the alliance between Ruto and Raila offers numerous advantages, it is not without challenges that if not tactfully addressed, might scatter it before 2027.
Both leaders have strong personalities and distinct political agendas. Balancing their interests and managing potential disagreements will be crucial to the success of their partnership.

Ruto and Raila’s supporters may not easily accept this union. Raila’s base, in particular, may view this move as a political experiment, given the long-standing rivalry. Convincing their supporters of the benefits of this partnership will require careful messaging and strategic outreach.

This alliance could also marginalise other political leaders who may have been positioning themselves as alternatives. Leaders like Rigathi Gachagua, Kalonzo Musyoka, and Musalia Mudavadi may need to rethink their strategies in light of this new development.

The partnership between Ruto and Raila is poised to significantly influence the 2027 elections. Their united political efforts could overshadow other potential candidates, making it challenging for them to present a formidable opposition.

This alliance may also trigger a shift in Kenya's political dynamics, leading to the formation of new coalitions and movements in response to their collaboration. Moreover, this partnership could establish a new standard for future elections, where alliances are formed not only out of political necessity but also for the sake of national unity and progress.