At least four million are staring at severe food shortage in Kenya

NDMA CEO Hared Adan when they appeared before the National Assembly Environment, Forestry and Mining Committee at Hilton Garden-Inn in Nairobi on September 2, 2026. [Boniface Okendo, Standard]

At least four million people in Kenya are going hungry, with the situation expected to worsen during the anticipated heavy rains in October as hunger bites across the Horn of Africa region, a new report has revealed.

The report by IGAD, covering the Horn of Africa region and released on Thursday in Nairobi, also shows that 40.3 million are facing high levels of acute food insecurity in 2026, reflecting a slight decline from 43.3 million people recorded in 2025.

"34 per cent of the analysed population face high levels of acute food insecurity in 2026 in six IGAD member states with data meeting requirements," the IGAD's Regional Focus of the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises reads in part.

However, while Sudan and Uganda recorded improvements, the situation deteriorated in Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti and South Sudan.

"This is actually a three-fold increase from the number of people who were facing high levels of food insecurity in 2016," said Charity Mumbua, IGAD's food security specialist.

In Kenya, the report indicated that most affected areas are Arid and Semi-Arid (ASAL) counties, with about 400,000 refugees living in the country also falling victim.

"But at the moment, due to a good performance of the March to May rainfall season, the number has gone down to about 2.7 million, but the peak figure remains 4.1 million," said Mumbua.

According to the organisation, the growing pressure on food systems across the region is attributed to conflict, extreme weather like droughts and economic shocks which combine to threaten livelihoods.

The report indicates that the interconnected shocks are being compounded by severe cuts in humanitarian funding.

IGAD Deputy Executive Secretary Mohamed Abdi Ware (3rd left) during the launch of the IGAD Regional Focus of the 2026 Global Report on Food in Nairobi on September 24, 2026. [Boniface Okendo, Standard]

The study attributes part of the region's worsening food security to largely failed October-December 2025 rains, which reduced food production in southeastern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya and much of Somalia.

Below-average June-September 2026 rains, attributed to El Niño, have also threatened agricultural production in western parts of the region, it said.

The outlook is complicated by forecasts of above-average October-December rains in eastern areas due to the expected intensification of El Niño alongside a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.

Mumbua said that while the rains could improve crop and livestock production, they also raise the risk of flooding in eastern and southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, central and southern Somalia and Uganda.

The findings place Kenya in a difficult cycle where both drought and excessive rainfall can undermine food production and household livelihoods as floods could destroy crops and infrastructure as well as cause deaths.

Kenya had already recorded a deterioration in food insecurity in the previous regional assessment.

The 2025 IGAD report projected 2.8 million Kenyans in IPC Phase 3 or above between April and June 2025, with the deterioration linked to poor rainfall forecasts, erratic rains and dry spells disrupting crop production in agropastoral areas.

Mohamed Abdi, IGAD's Deputy Executive Secretary, said "inflationary pressures on the food sector, and the declining and deteriorating terms of trade between our food producers, farmers, and pastoralists against urban economic actors" have also contributed to the challenge.

The latest report suggests the wider pressures have continued into 2026, with the situation further threatened by rising food and fuel prices and disruptions to regional trade.

Across the six countries with sufficient data, more than 208,000 people were experiencing Catastrophe conditions, the most severe level of acute food insecurity. Of these, 134,800 were in Sudan between February and May, while 73,000 were in South Sudan between April and July.

More than 10 million people were also facing Emergency conditions, with Sudan and South Sudan accounting for the largest numbers. Somalia and Kenya recorded substantial increases in this category.

Sudan remains the region's largest food crisis, the report shows, with 19.5 million people, or 41 per cent of its population, facing high levels of acute food insecurity between February and May.

IGAD observed that South Sudan had the highest prevalence, with 55 per cent of its population affected between April and July, according to the survey.

Somalia had 6.5 million people facing acute food insecurity, while Uganda recorded 2.1 million and Djibouti 300,000.

The research excluded Ethiopia and Eritrea from the regional tally because their available data did not meet the report's technical requirements.

The humanitarian burden extends beyond hunger, as IGAD documented more than nine million children aged between six and 59 months across the six countries as acutely malnourished, including 2.3 million suffering severe acute malnutrition.

The region, the report further revealed, is also grappling with mass displacement. About 19 million people were forcibly displaced by July 2026, comprising 14.5 million internally displaced people and 4.5 million refugees and asylum-seekers.

Although the number of internally displaced people fell by about 1.4 million, compared with 2025, mainly because of returns in parts of Sudan, the organisation noted, displacement increased in South Sudan and Somalia.

IGAD said conflict, climate extremes and economic shocks are reinforcing each other, while weak institutions, chronic poverty and environmental fragility continue to undermine countries' ability to absorb and recover from shocks.

The regional outlook is further clouded by instability along the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb corridor, with disruptions to maritime routes threatening supplies of food, fuel and humanitarian assistance.

The researchers recommended early warning, and prompt action by authorities and relevant bodies to avert the impending dangers by the anticipated El Nino rains that risks compounding the problem.

"There is a need to provide financing to make sure that we are prepared and that we take anticipatory action in terms of different things that we can do, such as preventing soil erosion, strengthening our infrastructure that could actually be affected by the floods," said Mumbu.

Abdi said the organisation convened a "high level" regional meeting in Addis Ababa a fortnight ago and is already seized of the El Nino matter to help avert crisis. 

"It's a call for action for our policymakers, for our institutions, for our partners, to really put the effort for anticipated action to ensure that problems do not arise,"