Are confrontation, threats Ruto's new strategy of doing business?

President William Ruto recently ordered Tata Chemicals Magadi Ltd closed, but days later mining CS announced intentions to negotiate with the company  [Wilberforce Okwiri, Standard]

President William Ruto is increasingly adopting a hardline public posture towards foreign investors and businesses, issuing what appears to be blunt ultimatums, only for government officials to later qualify, reinterpret, or soften his position, triggering questions as to whether the President is now using threats as his negotiation style.

Political analysts and Diplomats argue that the President, by making his demands publicly, creating maximum pressure, then allowing government officials to negotiate with targeted investors, creates no room for the victims to raise their stake at the bargaining table, warning that the style amounts to a deliberate scheme of using the weight of the Presidency to pressure investors to accept the demands.

In all the recurring incidents, the script is always the same; the President goes to the car rooftops, picks the mic, gives ultimatums to the targeted investor in the toughest language, and after the pressure mounts, government officials later move in to negotiate with the affected investors; then the matters are removed from the public domain and the investors continue with their businesses uninterrupted.

The incidents include: Tata Chemical company directive to pack and leave, crackdown on foreign traders, directive to Industrialist Jaswant Singh Rai to withdraw court cases or ‘leave Kenya, go to court or go to heaven ', and the government’s stance that it would not renew the British Army Training Unit in Kenya (BATUK).

Despite the government's hard stance over the above-mentioned incidents, the officials would later soften their stance, form dialogue committees away from the public opinion court and allow the operations of the targeted groups.

For Tata Chemicals Magadi, Ruto had termed the Mumbai-based company criminals and exploitative and directed it to pack up and leave for allegedly failing to invest in Kajiado County despite operating there for decades.

“We have vast resources at Lake Magadi that can transform Kajiado County and our country, Kenya. That Tata Chemicals company has had a license for 100 years but has not built anything in Kajiado or employed any people from Kajiado,” said Ruto.

He added: “I told them to pack up their things and leave. Let them go. These people come here, take our resources and transport them to India and other countries,” he said.

Ruto said the government will issue the Lake Magadi soda ash mining licence to a new investor, who will be required to establish industries that add value to the resources extracted from the area.

He said the new investor will be required to establish a major glass manufacturing plant in Kajiado, as well as another facility for the manufacture of chemicals.

"We will bring in a new company, and the condition for that company is that it must establish a major glass manufacturing plant here in Kajiado County, as well as another company to manufacture chemicals,” said the Head of State.

Later on September 8, Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho announced to the public that he had overseen the establishment of a high-level technical committee to resolve outstanding compliance issues surrounding the suspended operations of Tata Chemicals Magadi Limited.

The committee, he said, would be led by the Mining Principal Secretary Harry Kimtai on behalf of the government and Tata Chemicals Magadi Limited CEO Swaminathan Nagarajan representing the company.

It will conduct a technical review of the outstanding issues and submit its findings to Joho for consideration and further direction.

Among the issues the committee will examine are mineral beneficiation and in-country value addition, outstanding community benefits and royalty obligations, unresolved land matters, opening up the area for multiple mineral extraction and pending matters involving the Kajiado County Government.

On the crackdown on foreign traders, the President was categorical; the foreign nationals operating small-scale retail and hawking businesses must leave by Monday, September 10.

Days later, State House Spokesperson Hussein Mohammed emerged, announcing the government’s decision to issue a 90-day ultimatum to the foreign traders to regularise their immigration, work permits, business registration and licensing before enforcement begins.

“At the conclusion of the 90-day regularisation period, immigration, work-permit, registration and licensing requirements will be enforced firmly and strictly in accordance with the law and due process,” Mohamed said.

He added, “Kenya will remain an open, secure and welcoming country, protecting opportunities for its citizens, safeguarding the rights of all persons lawfully within its borders, welcoming legitimate investment and enterprise, and faithfully honouring its regional, continental and international obligations.”

Ruto’s public directive to industrialist Rai in 2023 to withdraw court cases even took a darker turn following his abduction by armed men in Nairobi.

A week before Rai’s abduction, the President had issued the "mambo ni matatu" directive in August, warning ‘sugar barons’, specifically billionaire Jaswant Singh Rai, to drop all court cases stalling the revival of Mumias Sugar Company or face three consequences: leaving the country, going to jail, or going to "heaven.

He stated that parties challenging the leasing and turnaround of Mumias Sugar must unconditionally withdraw their pending petitions, warning them of extreme state actions if they defied him.

He was later kidnapped by armed men in broad daylight at the intersection of Wood Avenue and Lenana Road, who opened his car’s door and forcefully removed him and left the car.

The investor later withdrew all cases at the Appeals Court challenging the lease of Mumias Sugar Company (MSC), just days after he was abducted by unknown men.

The withdrawal of the cases had halted the revival of the once-giant sugar miller.

Vartox Resource Inc, a Dubai-based firm, also withdrew its petition at the same court where the company had also challenged the leasing of Mumias Sugar. 

Rai had gone to court to object to the takeover of Mumias Sugar Company by Uganda-based Sarrai Group, which is owned by his young brother Sarbi Singh Rai.

Sarrai Group had the third-highest bid of Sh11.5 billion, while Rai's West Kenya offered Sh3.5 billion, with steel tycoon Narendra Raval placing Sh8.4 billion.

Tumaz and Tumaz, linked to businessman Julius Mwale, had the highest bid of Sh27.6 billion.

The BATUK license controversy had jeopardised the training operations in July this year after the government said the suspension was prompted by concerns over the legal jurisdiction over British personnel, immunity, and the accountability mechanisms governing the presence of foreign forces on Kenyan soil.

Through Nelson Koech, Chairperson of the Committee on Defence, Intelligence and Foreign Relations, the committee said it undertook a two-year inquiry into BATUK's operations in Kenya and tabled its report before the National Assembly in November 2025.

"That report recommended that ratification proceed subject to firm accountability conditions including jurisdiction for Kenyan courts over serious offences committed by visiting troops, binding cooperation with Kenyan criminal investigations and parliamentary inquiries, environmental responsibilities, welfare and child-support obligations, and stronger protection for host communities," he said.

Weeks after the impasse, Kenya and the United Kingdom signed a new agreement with Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi welcoming the decision by the UK to continue its military exercises, saying the cooperation serves national interests, strengthens the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF), enhances regional security, and supports economic growth through trade and job creation.

The UK Embassy in Kenya said the government had provided the necessary assurances, including issuing licences and approvals to facilitate the return of British troops.

Analysts maintain Ruto’s confrontational approach as a negotiation strategy exposed the country to serious legal landmines that would be detrimental to taxpayers, as well as diplomatic gaffes and embarrassment to Cabinet Secretaries who later quell Ruto’s storm.

In both the crackdown on foreign traders and Ruto’s mambo ni matatu directive, petitions were lodged in court challenging the legality of his public outburst and directives.

On foreign traders, Advocate Benedict Wandeto Wachira moved to court, urging that the directive violated due process and threatens to fuel xenophobia, while in the Mambo ni matatu directive, Operation Linda Jamii group sought orders to have Ruto withdraw and formally apologise for the utterances.

Prof Peter Kagwanja, the CEO of Africa Policy Institute (API), opined that Ruto’s public directives were aimed at demanding a share of his target businesses and coercing foreign traders to allegedly acquire Kenyan identity cards and re-elect him in the next year’s general election.

“The whole idea is acquisition of property and management of next year’s general election.  It is quite clear that the President’s threats are objectified and weaponised for expected return,” Prof Kagwanja said.

Siaya Governor James Orengo said Ruto’s threat to the country was not just about bad governance but a scheme for him ‘to buy the country piece by piece.’

“Ruto has turned his office into a private enterprise, using public threats like "mambo ni matatu" to intimidate local investors and capture every profitable sector. Look at Nyanza today: the registration certificates for Muhoroni, Miwani, and Sony Sugar aren't held by the community; they are stamped with the names of Ruto’s proxies. This is economic colonisation, plain and simple,” he said.

He added: “We refuse to be boxed in or told who we can talk to. Nyanza will engage every community across Kenya to build an unstoppable alliance. Together, we will reclaim our nation, a Kenya defined by the rule of law, free press, and true equity, not state abductions and cartel politics."