Drought agency fails to curb losses as communities struggle to survive

Women search for water in Kulamamwe, Isiolo South, hard hit by drought, on February 4, 2026. [Wilberforce Okwiri, Standard]

Every drought in Kenya follows a familiar pattern: Loss of life, shrinking of water resources, millions in need of food relief and billions redirected to emergency relief.

Despite the existence of the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA), a national drought policy and early warning systems designed to anticipate dry spells and trigger preventive measures, each drought is still treated as a crisis, even when warnings have been issued in advance.

The NDMA Act mandates the agency to coordinate all drought risk management activities and develop mechanisms, either independently or in partnership, to prevent drought emergencies in Kenya.

Similarly, Kenya’s drought policy framework is intended to ensure proper preparedness and manage drought impacts before they escalate into disasters.

Under the law, the NDMA is expected to build long-term resilience in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) by investing in water harvesting systems, functional boreholes, fodder production, livestock insurance, livelihood diversification and contingency financing that can be deployed as soon as drought risk rises.

In practice, however, much of this exists only on paper. Kenya continues to rely heavily on emergency food aid, water trucking for livestock and cash transfers after livelihoods have already collapsed.

The country is currently facing a severe drought triggered by late, below-normal and poorly distributed rains during the 2025 long rains (March–May) and short rains (October–December).

The Kenya Meteorological Department has already warned that drought conditions are likely to persist until the onset of the March–May rainfall season.

A review of recent national budgets reveals a persistent imbalance between what Kenya spends on drought preparedness and what it spends on emergency response.

NDMA receives billions of shillings annually, yet a huge portion of these funds goes toward operational costs, coordination and emergency activities. By contrast, allocations earmarked specifically for long-term resilience and preparedness remain relatively low. For instance, in the 2025/2026 financial year, the Ending Drought Emergency in Kenya programme received Sh300 million.

The National Drought Emergency Fund received Sh500 million. Towards Ending Drought Emergencies (TWENDE), aimed at ecosystem-based adaptation in the ASALs to reduce the economic impact of climate-induced drought, received Sh300 million.

The Dryland Climate Action for Community Drought Resilience (DCADR) programme, a 2023–2026 initiative co-funded by the European Union and NDMA, received Sh520 million. The DCADR project seeks to enhance drought resilience and promote greener, inclusive rural development in ASALs by strengthening community capacity to manage climate-induced shocks through improved resource management.

Measures in place 

About three weeks ago, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki announced that the government is fully prepared to respond to the ongoing drought.

He said adequate measures have been put in place to mitigate the situation, adding that Sh6 billion has been allocated to support response efforts.

“The government has made arrangements to ensure we provide enough food to all affected people and save livestock from drought-related deaths. There should be no panic,” Kindiki said while co-chairing the 14th Development Partners Forum in Nairobi.

According to the Kenya Red Cross, as of January 31, 2026, two million people in Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, Isiolo, Samburu, Turkana, Baringo, West Pokot, Tana River, and Wajir counties are in urgent need of food aid.

Of these, 784,000 children are malnourished, with 194,000 severely so. Around 134,000 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers are also malnourished, while approximately 300,000 households, about 1.5 million people, require immediate access to water.

In that forum, the chairperson of the Council of Governors Ahmed Abdullahi called for urgent intervention to avoid worsening of the situation stating that while ASAL counties are the most affected, Non-Asal counties are experiencing spill-over effects through rising food prices, water stress and livelihood disruptions.

Although some parts of the country, including Nyanza and the border areas between Kenya and Tanzania, are likely to receive minimal rainfall, much of the country, including the northern and coastal regions, will continue to experience hot and dry conditions.

According to Zachary Misiani, a senior research scientist and climate focal point advisor at the Kenya Red Cross, most areas will face worsening water scarcity.

He also warned that it might take pastoralist communities about three seasons, which is about one and half years, to recover drought losses in terms of livestock deaths.

“In many areas, households lose more than half of their livestock during drought. Even when rains return, some animals die because their bodies cannot cope with sudden changes in temperature,” Misiani explains.

“It can take two to three rainy seasons, roughly one and a half years, for families to begin rebuilding herds and livelihoods. This is why each drought pushes communities further into poverty,” he said.

Water harvesting

The climate expert stated that with the weather forecast predicting heavy rainfall in the March-May season, the national and county governments should be preparing to harvest water.

He stated that the latest seasonal outlook for the March–April–May (MAM) long rains, released by the Kenya Meteorological Department, shows that coastal counties including Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale and Mombasa are expected to receive below-normal rainfall.

Northern and northeastern counties such as Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit, Tana River and Garissa, as well as the southeast lowlands of Ukambani, are estimated to experience near to above-average rainfall.

Western Kenya, parts of the Rift Valley, northwestern Turkana and sections of the Mount Kenya region may also receive near to above-average rains. However, Misiani cautioned that rainfall alone will not reverse the extreme weather crisis.

“Last year’s rainfall was poorly distributed and we experienced drought that is still affecting more than two million Kenyans. Even if some areas receive rain this season, the country is not likely to recover quickly.

Pasture will take time to regenerate, water sources will remain stressed and vulnerable households will continue to suffer,” he added.

With the onset of the long rains expected around mid-March, Misiani said the nation and county governments have a narrow window of about four to five weeks to put preparedness measures in place.

“We already have sector-based advisories showing which counties are likely to be affected and what needs to be done. County and national governments should now act on this information,” he said.

Among the priority actions are scaling up water provision in drought-hit areas, pre-positioning fodder for livestock, disseminating climate information to communities and supporting water harvesting in areas likely to receive rainfall.

“If we provide water and pasture support early, we can reduce conflicts over scarce resources, including human-to-human and human-wildlife conflicts,” Misiani noted.

The scientist further noted that contrasting forecasts of drought and rainfall mean Kenya faces a dual threat: drought-related diseases in dry areas and flood-related outbreaks in regions receiving heavy rain.

In areas expected to get above-average rainfall, particularly western Kenya and parts of the Rift Valley, Misiani warned of potential flash floods, landslides and mudslides. These hazards could trigger outbreaks of waterborne diseases such as cholera and dysentery.

At the same time, counties predicted to remain dry face a heightened risk of hygiene-related illnesses due to water scarcity and poor sanitation.

“Communities must be informed in advance so they can take preventive measures. Preparedness can save lives,” he said. He added that lightning and thunderstorms, which frequently occur in western counties such as Kisii, Nyamira, and Kakamega during the MAM season, could also pose risks to people and livestock.

Temperatures are expected to remain high. According to Misiani, 2026 is projected to be among the hottest years globally, with Kenya likely to record above-average temperatures across most regions.

Northern counties such as Marsabit, Samburu, and Turkana, as well as coastal and southeastern areas, face a high probability of warmer-than-normal conditions. “Hotter temperatures increase evaporation, dry out water sources faster, and worsen the impact of drought,” he explains.

He also warned that pastoralist communities may need about three seasons, roughly one and a half years, to recover from livestock losses caused by the drought.