Ruto on diplomatic tightrope as Japan, China vie for favour

9th Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD 9) in Yokohama, Japan.[PCS]

President William Ruto is navigating a high-stakes diplomatic balancing act, leveraging a high-profile visit to Japan to secure new investment while his government's deepening economic ties with China remain under scrutiny from the US. 

Ruto’s participation in the ongoing 9th Tokyo International Conference on African Development has put Nairobi at the centre of geopolitical rivalry between Tokyo and Beijing for influence on the African continent. 

The visit comes as tensions between China and Japan flare over historical issues and the status of Taiwan. 

This backdrop adds a layer of complexity to Kenya's efforts to attract capital from both global powers.

At the Kenya Investment Forum in Yokohama, the president described Japan as Kenya’s "third-largest source of foreign direct investment, contributing over $205 million in 2024 alone." 

He highlighted Japan's role in transformative projects such as the Port of Mombasa and the Olkaria Geothermal Plant.

Ruto’s statements were a clear nod to Japan's model of "quality infrastructure" and sustainable development. 

He emphasized a deepening collaboration in five priority sectors aligned with both nations' goals: digitalisation, healthcare, agriculture, automotive manufacturing, and climate and sustainability. 

In a strategic pitch to Japanese investors, Ruto touted Kenya's financial stability, noting that the shilling is among the best-performing currencies globally, with inflation contained at single-digit levels. 

He also announced the establishment of a Green Investment Fund of $40 million, inviting Japanese fund managers to invest in projects related to electric vehicles, sustainable agriculture, and renewable energy.

Ruto also spoke to the City Assembly, where he extended an invitation to the Japanese business community to "expand engagement with the EAC."

He positioned Kenya as the "gateway to East Africa and the wider African continent," leveraging the regional bloc's population of over 330 million and its alignment with the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Analysts say the visit’s strategic timing and focus underscore Ruto’s administration’s push for a more diversified foreign policy. 

The government is keen to attract funding for its ambitious Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA) while navigating the competing interests of major global players. 

At yesterday’s meetings, Kenya sought to formalize frameworks for labour mobility with Japan, enabling more young Kenyans to contribute to Japan's economy, further solidifying people-to-people ties. 

The visit also follows a call between Ruto and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, where they discussed strengthening economic cooperation. 

The US, like Japan, has expressed concerns about China's growing influence in Africa. 

The ability of the Ruto administration to ink tangible deals with Japan, while maintaining strong ties with both the US and China, will be a key test of its diplomatic agility, analysts said.

“Finalizing deals and securing new commitments from Japan would signal a successful execution of this diplomatic tightrope walk, demonstrating that Kenya can attract investment from diverse sources without being forced to pick sides in the simmering geopolitical rivalry,” said a senior Ministry of Foreign Affairs official on condition of anonymity.