IEBC abdication of duty risks poll violence in 2027

Residents of Ol Kalou town receive goodies donated by the government ahead of the July 16 by-election in Ol Kalou constituency. [James Munyeki, Standard]

As Ol Kalou residents prepare for next week's by-election, there is no denying that the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has totally abdicated its responsibility. Kenyans have been treated to videos showing what most reasonable people would call blatant vote buying.

Cabinet Secretaries, ostensibly not supposed to engage in overt partisan politics (Chapter Six of the Constitution), are out campaigning. Instances of violence and voter intimation have been alleged. Again, a lot of these incidences have been captured on video.

Yet, the IEBC continues to keep its head deep in the sand. Officials from the commission are on record asking the public to avail evidence. They have also threatened to postpone the polls. This is a travesty. Where have they been over the last several weeks? Why start making noises with just days to the polls?

More broadly, it is clear that IEBC is ill-equipped for the elections next year. This is for two main reasons. First, we are primed for a singularly violent election cycle. Unlike past elections that had more or less neatly-marked ethnic voting blocs, next year’s elections will involve significant intra-ethnic competition.

Many contests will devolve into violence and intimation. Yet because these incidences will be intra-ethnic, they will not trigger the same levels of alarm as cross-ethnic violence. So far, the IEBC has shown it cannot credibly deter candidates from maintaining militias in the form of goons. Deaths by such goons go unaddressed, the latest one being the death of Vincent Osiemo in Kisii County.

Second, there is every indication that incumbent politicians will spend extraordinary amounts of money to remain in office. What we are witnessing in Ol Kalou might be done on a national scale next year.

Will the IEBC grow a spine and disqualify candidates who violate electoral laws – including candidates affiliated with the Kenya Kwanza administration? Talk is cheap.

Either we have electoral laws and rules that are uniformly applied across the political divide, or we do not have any laws or rules. It is as simple as that.  The IEBC’s inability to effectively regulate politicians will further erode trust in the institution. This, in turn, will increase the likelihood of post-election violence. According to the polls, we are likely to head into next year’s elections with an incumbent administration with very low approval ratings. A lot of Kenyans will be expecting to see the elections deliver change.

Many will be disappointed if the incumbent Kenya Kwanza administration gets reelected. Many will cry foul and take matters in their own hands, unless the IEBC delivers a credible election.  Of course, there is no guarantee that the Kenya Kwanza administration will lose. Most incumbents get reelected.

In fact, the only clear path for President William Ruto to lose next year would be if the opposition presents a single candidate and engineers a wave election. Barring that, Ruto will be the favourite. Yet unless IEBC burnishes its credibility throughout the process, many will not believe the poll results. Violence will likely follow.

It is a shame that rather than project the seriousness that the situation demands for, the IEBC continues to play games. Kenyans deserve much better.

-The writer is a professor at Georgetown University