Ebola may be spreading far beyond official count, WHO warns

Health workers simulate evacuation protocols using a manikin for deceased victims of Ebola during a training by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) in Ongata Rongai, Kajiado County, on July 10, 2026. [AFP]

The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo could be significantly larger than official figures indicate, with the World Health Organisation warning that many infections are still escaping detection as transmission continues in communities.

WHO Emergencies Director Chikwe Ihekweazu said new modelling suggests the true scale of the outbreak may be to four times higher than the confirmed case count because a large proportion of infections are occurring outside known chains of transmission.

"Between 70 and 80 per cent of new cases today are still coming from outside of contact lists in the Bunia area," Ihekweazu said. 

"We estimate, based on some modelling that we've done, that anywhere between two to four times the number of cases that we're finding is probably the true scale of the outbreak. Now where it lies in that spectrum is also geographically dependent."

His remarks point to a worrying trend in Bunia, one of the hardest-hit areas, where health workers are still finding an exceptionally high number of Ebola infections among people arriving at treatment facilities.

"We think here in Bunia, still at the moment, one of two tests that we do turn out to be positive," he said. 

"So one out of two patients that come into or are brought into our health facilities with symptoms and signs of Ebola turn out to be positive. That is a demonstration of very high infections happening in the communities, high transmission still happening."

The latest figures show the outbreak has now reached 1,851 confirmed cases, with 650 deaths and 313 recoveries. 

The Democratic Republic of Congo accounts for 1,830 cases, 648 deaths, and 295 recoveries, while hospitals are operating at 96 percent bed capacity and the case fatality rate stands at 32 percent.

Neighbouring Uganda has reported 20 cases, including 17 recoveries and two deaths, while France has recorded one imported case.

The United States has also confirmed one Ebola infection linked to the DRC outbreak, highlighting the international reach of the epidemic even as it remains concentrated in eastern Congo.

The WHO warning suggests the official case count may represent only part of the crisis, with undetected infections continuing to fuel community transmission and complicate efforts to bring the outbreak under control.